A Projection of City and School System Finances Agenda Forecast - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

FY 2013-2017 A Projection of City and School System Finances

Agenda • Forecast Presentation • Economy • Current Formula Revenues • School Forecast • City Forecast • Conclusion and Threats • Ways to Modify the Forecast • Voting Software 2

Economy 3

Consumer Price Index 4.5% 4.0% Projected 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Proj Proj All Items Core CPI Sources: Actual data from Bureau of Economic Analysis; Projections from Mesirow Financial Themes on the Economy 4

Consumer Confidence 160 140 120 100 90 80 60 50 40 20 0 Jul-99 Feb-00 Sep-00 Apr-01 Nov-01 Jun-02 Jan-03 Aug-03 Mar-04 Oct-04 May-05 Dec-05 Jul-06 Feb-07 Sep-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 Source: The Conference Board 5

Unemployment Rates 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Calendar Year Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Virginia United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Congressional Budget Office 6

Virginia Beach Defense Spending $16.0 $14.0 Projected $12.0 $10.0 Billions $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 7

Real Estate Assessments 25.0% Six straight years of declining real estate values, a drop of 23.6% from 2010 to 2015 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Fiscal Year 8

Economic Summary • Unemployment remains high • High business profits, but not hiring • Inflation is rising • Consumer confidence is unpredictable • Stock market volatile • Housing still declining • Borrowing is tight • Uncertainty 9

Formula Revenues These revenues are currently shared 51.3% to School System and 48.7% to the City 10

Real Estate Revenue $550.0 $500.0 Projected $450.0 Millions $400.0 $350.0 $300.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year Real Estate - General Fund Delinquencies & Interest on Delinquent TIF's & SSD's Public Service 11

Personal Property $160.0 Projected $140.0 $120.0 $100.0 Millions $80.0 vehicles $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year Personal Property Paid by Commonwealth Personal Property Vehicles Public Service Personal Property Business Equipment Machinery & Tools Delinquent and Interest on Deliquent PP/Other 12

General Sales Tax $68.0 $64.0 $60.0 Millions $56.0 $52.0 $48.0 $44.0 $40.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 13

Utility Taxes (includes VA Telecom m unications but not E911) $40.0 $35.0 $30.0 Millions $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 14

Business License Tax $65.0 $60.0 $55.0 $50.0 $45.0 Millions $40.0 $35.0 $30.0 $25.0 $20.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 15

Cable Franchise Tax $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 16

School Forecast 17

Local Support Current Form ula $440.0 $400.0 Projected $360.0 Millions $320.0 $280.0 $240.0 $200.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 18

Local Composite Index 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fiscal Year Virginia Beach State Average 19

Federal & State Revenue $450.0 Projected $400.0 $350.0 $300.0 Millions $250.0 $200.0 $150.0 $100.0 $50.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year State Federal 20

Fees and Charges $40.0 $30.0 Millions $20.0 $10.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 21

Student Enrollment 80,000 76,000 72,000 68,000 64,000 60,000 School Year 22

School Salaries $550.0 $530.0 $510.0 Millions $490.0 $470.0 $450.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 23

School VRS Rate 30.0% Projected 24.0% 18.0% 12.0% 6.0% 0.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 24

Health Insurance Costs and Percentage of Full-Tim e Salaries $120 19% $100 18% 17% 16% $80 14% Millions $60 10% $40 $20 $- 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 25

School Operating Expenditures $200.0 $180.0 $160.0 $140.0 $120.0 Millions $100.0 $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 26

School Debt Service $50.0 $47.0 $44.0 Millions $41.0 $38.0 $35.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 27

School Pay-go $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 Millions $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 28

Total School Expenditures $1,000.0 $800.0 $600.0 Millions $400.0 $200.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year Salaries Fringes Other Operating Expenditures 29

School Forecast $960 $940 $920 $900 $-67.8 m $880 Millions $860 $840 $-49.3 m $820 $800 $780 $760 $740 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenue Expenditure 30

City Forecast 31

Formula Revenues City Portion $460.0 Denotes the $9.2 million in RSF retained by City and replaced $410.0 with School fund balance. Projected Millions $360.0 $310.0 $260.0 $210.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 32

Automobile License Revenue $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 Millions $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 33

Cigarette Tax $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 Millions $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 34

Amusement Tax $8.0 $7.0 $6.0 $5.0 Millions $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 35

Hotel Tax $32.0 $28.0 $24.0 $20.0 Millions $16.0 $12.0 $8.0 $4.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 36

Restaurant Meals Tax $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 Millions $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 37

VA Telecommunications – E911 $8.0 $7.0 $6.0 $5.0 Millions $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 38

Other Local Taxes $12.0 Projected $10.0 $8.0 Millions $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year City Tax on Deeds City Tax on Wills Bank Net Capital 39

Fees and Charges $300.0 Projected $250.0 $200.0 Millions $150.0 $100.0 $50.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 40

State & Federal $160.0 $140.0 Projected $120.0 $100.0 Millions $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year State Federal 41

City Salaries $370.0 $350.0 $330.0 Millions $310.0 $290.0 $270.0 $250.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 42

City VRS Rates Includes both Retirem ent and Life Insurance rates 28.0% Projected 24.0% 20.0% VRS Rate 16.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 43

Health Insurance Costs and Percentage of Full-Tim e Salaries $70.0 22.6% $60.0 21.0% 19.7% $50.0 18.1% $40.0 15.1% Millions 12.5% $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 44

Risk Management $25.00 $20.00 Millions $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 45

SPSA Cost $25.0 Estimated Solid Waste Tipping Fee - $125.00 $20.0 $15.0 Millions $10.0 Estimated Solid Waste Tipping Fee - $65.35 $5.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 46

Debt Service All City debt excluding Schools $140.0 Projected $120.0 $100.0 $80.0 Millions $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 47

City Pay-go $70.0 $60.0 $50.0 Millions $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year 48

Total City Expenditures $1,200.0 Projected $1,000.0 $800.0 $443 $450 $455 $440 $457 $464 $491 $501 $526 $536 Millions $600.0 $110 $112 $131 $139 $150 $154 $164 $400.0 $108 $112 $111 $200.0 $309 $320 $319 $313 $320 $322 $323 $325 $325 $325 $0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fiscal Year Operating Fringes Salary 49