INDIAN LAKE 5-Year Forecast – May 18, 2020 The 5-year forecast is intended to assist the school district in the financial management of its resources. It provides insight into the future as a snap shot in time. The forecast is updated as laws, resources, and budgets change. The Indian Lake 5-year forecast is reviewed monthly.
RECENT CHANGES ■ COVID – 19 outbreak that has closed the school to students from mid March to the end of the school year, “Stay at Home” order for non-essential business\workers for approximately 5 weeks, and continued social distancing to help slow the spread or prevent the spread of the virus. – Public School operations as we know it changed in two days. – Economic fall out due to “Stay at Home” order and closure of non-essential businesses. – Social distancing and measures to take that will help prevent or slow the spread of COVID-19.
AFFECTS TO FORECAST ■ Chan Change ge in in school school opera operation tions – Estimating some savings due to no substitutes, overtime or extra trips during closure, reduced spring supplementals, reduced diesel fuel usage. Increased cost in food service program, maintenance cleaning and projects, unemployment cost, and technology. ■ Econom Economy – It is projected that the economy fall out will affect state funding and real estate tax collections. ■ Ne Next xt Year ar – Uncertain how school will operate next school year . Could cost more for cleaning and social distancing supplies, transportation cost, and technology to name a few.
REVENUE BY CATEGORIES Main Categories Affected By Recent Changes ■ Two Main Categories Affected by COVID-19 situation which encompasses 77% of the revenue sources – Re Real Estate Taxe xes – 55% of total revenue; based on property values, tax rates, and tax collections. – St State Funding – 22% of total revenue; determined by the State budget.
REAL ESTATE TAXES ■ Future property value projections are based on minimal increases since Logan County just went through a re-valuation update for calendar year 2020. ■ Tax collection percentages have been decreased due to possible delinquent taxes due to COVID-19. ■ At this current time there is not a projection included for a new levy or to renew the current emergency levy since it was approved to continue until December 31, 2024.
STATE FUNDING ■ The current state budget covers FY20 and FY21 and funding was held at the fiscal year 2019 level. ■ The Governor reduced state funding for the current fiscal year by $361,747 or 8.8%. ■ Since next year’s state funding revenue is unknown at this time, a 10% reduction is estimated for fiscal year 2021.
EXPENDITURES BY CATEGORIES Main Categories ■ Top Three Expenditure categories; Personal Services, Benefits, and Purchased Services; make up 88% of the budget. ■ These categories are the main areas that impact students.
PERSONNEL SALARIES AND BENEFITS Salaries Salaries Ben Benefit fits Personnel Salaries are projected to increase due to Pe Ben Benefit fits are projected to increase as retirement longevity increases, further educational hours contributions that are based on salaries increase, earned, and bringing back the salary expenditures insurance cost increase, and bringing back the benefit that the Student Wellness and Success Funds expenditures that the Student Wellness and Success covered in fiscal year 2020. Funds covered in fiscal year 2020. Re Reducing s staff i is t the m main w way to to r reduce ex expenditures i in t these t two c categories.
PURCHASED SERVICES ■ This category covers the cost for utilities, contractual agreements, professional development, tuition charges related to open-enrollment out students, charter/community schools, special education services, and property/fleet insurance. ■ It is projected that these specialized services as well as utility cost will increase slightly in future fiscal years. However, HB166 – Student Wellness and Success Funds helped to cover some purchased services that meet the fund restrictions in fiscal year 2020 and 2021. It is uncertain if we will receive those funds in fiscal year 2021.
Current General Fund Financial Picture ACTUAL FORECASTED 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2.08 Total Revenue 19,215,016 18,553,820 18,511,637 18,795,024 17,738,293 17,559,743 17,716,507 18,042,055 5.05 Total Expenditures 18,197,142 17,939,552 18,264,454 19,034,499 19,429,052 20,152,298 20,654,049 21,112,904 6.01 Budget Surplus/(Shortfall) 1,017,874 614,268 247,183 ‐ 239,475 ‐ 1,690,759 ‐ 2,592,555 ‐ 2,937,542 ‐ 3,070,849 15.01 Cash Balance 8,568,434 9,281,866 9,682,974 9,422,459 7,731,700 5,139,145 2,201,603 ‐ 869,246 This is a summary of the total revenue and total expenditures of the 5-year forecast with the black line in the graph reflecting the cash balance. As projected revenues decrease and expenditures increase the cash balance decreases drastically. Current projections will be revised as projections become actuals and when changes in school funding occur.
STATE FUNDING MODELING Modeling the ENDING FUND BALANCE based on state funding. ■ Low (black ck line) = no decrease in state funding for 2021 from the 2020 ending amount. ■ Mid Mid (gra (gray y lin line) ) = 10% reduction in state funding from 2020 ending amount. This is what is included on current forecast. ■ High High (red (red line) line) = 20% reduction in state funding from 2020 ending amount.
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