Aviation Demand Forecasts Probabilistic Forecast Peer review - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aviation Demand Forecasts • Probabilistic Forecast – Peer review – Key issues and trends – Sensitivity analysis • Ongoing monitoring – Last forecast refresh – June 2016 – 2045 design day forecast & modeling – Review of other industry forecasts • Key Questions: – Are forecasts still appropriate planning inputs for ongoing planning & development? – When will we reach 21 Million Annual Passengers? 1

PDX PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF ENPLANED PASSENGERS 25 Enplaned passengers (millions) 21.3 Planning Forecast 20 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP) 15 13.4 10 Actual Activity through CY 2018 8.4 5 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2 Sources: Historical: Port of Portland records. 2010 Master Plan forecasts (2010 MP): Jacobs Consultancy and NEXTOR,

PDX TOTAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS 700 Total aircraft operations (thousands) 2010 MP High (90%) 600 2010 MP Median (50%) 567 Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million 500 2010 MP Low (10%) Annual Passengers (27 MAP) 400 378 300 244 200 100 Actual Activity through CY 2018 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Sources: Historical: Port of Portland records. 2008 Master Plan forecasts (2008 MP): Jacobs Consultancy and NEXTOR, April 2008. 3

PDX PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF TOTAL AIR CARGO 1.2 Total cargo (millions of short tons) 2010 MP High (90%) 1.0 Planning Forecast 972 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP) 0.8 732 0.6 524 0.4 0.2 Actual Activity through CY 2018 0.0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Sources: Historical: Port of Portland records. 2010 Master Plan forecasts (2010 MP): Jacobs Consultancy 4

Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP) Actual Activity through CY 2018 5

Key Issues & Trends • 10 years of airline profitability • Outlook remains strong for business and leisure travel • Rate of growth is slowing • Cargo & e-commerce growth • Growth related to Planning Activity Levels (PALs) – When do we expect to reach 21 Million Annual Passengers? – Why is 21 Million Annual Passengers important? 6

Comparison of Actual to Forecast 7