OCTOBER FIVE-YEAR FORECAST OCTOBER 8, 2018 Fiscal Year Fiscal Year - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

OCTOBER FIVE-YEAR FORECAST OCTOBER 8, 2018

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year OCTOBER 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Beginning Balance 4,124,459 3,586,066 3,160,482 1,723,393 (604,491) + Revenue 28,693,328 29,526,521 29,886,672 30,400,537 30,864,534 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies - - - - - + Proposed New Levies - - - - - - Expenditures (29,231,721) (29,952,105) (31,323,761) (32,728,421) (34,217,679) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (538,393) (425,584) (1,437,089) (2,327,884) (3,353,145) Ending Balance 3,586,066 3,160,482 1,723,393 (604,491) (3,957,636) Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year MAY 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 4,328,492 3,703,044 3,154,976 1,624,127 + Revenue 29,493,047 28,465,550 29,400,444 29,797,681 30,170,330 2018 and 2019 distorted + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies - - - - - by nearly $600,000 of + Proposed New Levies - - - - - accelerated property tax - Expenditures (29,535,321) (29,090,998) (29,948,512) (31,328,530) (32,706,889) collections. = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (42,273) (625,448) (548,068) (1,530,849) (2,536,559) Ending Balance 4,328,492 3,703,044 3,154,976 1,624,127 (912,432) GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

10-Year Forecast Granville Exempted Village Schools 3

10-Year Forecast with Income Tax Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Beginning Balance 4,124,459 3,839,486 5,827,860 7,837,044 9,095,825 9,514,552 9,162,751 7,833,313 5,470,591 2,016,017 + Revenue 28,356,450 28,476,588 28,412,645 28,870,090 29,314,609 29,622,507 29,925,489 30,232,344 30,543,131 30,857,922 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Proposed New Levies 290,298 3,463,891 4,920,300 5,117,112 5,321,796 5,534,668 5,756,055 5,986,297 6,225,749 6,474,779 - Expenditures (28,931,721) (29,952,105) (31,323,761) (32,728,421) (34,217,679) (35,508,976) (37,010,982) (38,581,364) (40,223,454) (41,940,754) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (284,973) 1,988,374 2,009,184 1,258,781 418,726 (351,801) (1,329,438) (2,362,723) (3,454,574) (4,608,053) Ending Balance 3,839,486 5,827,860 7,837,044 9,095,825 9,514,552 9,162,751 7,833,313 5,470,591 2,016,017 (2,592,036) Granville Exempted Village Schools 4

Monthly Cash Flow Projected Monthly Cash Flow Board Approved Cash Balance Policy $ 2,865,296 $10,000,000 Cash balance on the previous $9,000,000 table is as of June 30 each $8,000,000 year. Cash balance on $7,000,000 January 31, 2020 is projected $6,000,000 to be about $2.9 million lower than on June 30, 2019 $5,000,000 $3,710,710 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,508,528 $842,077 $1,000,000 $0 7.020 - Ending Cash Balance Board Approved Cash Balance Policy 2019 2020 GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Granville Exempted Village Schools 6

Revenue 2016 2019 2022 2015 2019 2023 Real Estate ######### ######### ######### Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate PUPP 814,610.00 1,239,902.00 1,408,843.00 63% 63% 62% Income Tax - - - PUPP Unres Aid 6,382,794.00 PUPP 6,630,614.00 6,848,580.00 PUPP 4% 5% 4% Res Aid 52,903.00 116,217.00 116,953.00 Prop Tax Alloc 1,999,304.00 2,035,813.00 2,156,307.00 Unres Aid Unres Aid Unres Aid Income All Other Rev 570,090.00 995,024.00 943,699.00 24% 23% 22% Tax 0% Income Tax All Other All Other All Other 0% Rev Rev Prop Tax Res Aid Rev Prop Tax Income Tax Prop Tax Res Aid Res Aid 2% 3% Alloc Alloc 0% 4% Alloc 0% 0% 0% 7% 7% 7% Granville Exempted Village Schools 7

Revenue YOY BOR/Update/Reappraisal Tax Year Agricultural Residential Class II (All) 2009 1.5% 0.2% -0.6% 2010 -1.4% 0.1% -1.5% 2011 8.5% -0.6% 1.0% 2012 -0.2% -0.6% -8.6% 2013 -1.1% 0.0% -0.5% The 14% increase in 2017 valuation, which reflects 2014 21.4% 0.2% 0.0% three years of valuation growth, provides the 2015 0.5% 0.0% -0.4% district with about 1.5% revenue growth (which is 2016 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% per year). Property tax rates are reduced to 2017 -1.3% 14.0% 3.7% offset the increase in values. 2018 -0.2% 0.0% -0.5% 2019 -0.2% 0.0% -0.5% 2020 0.5% 6.0% 1.8% 2021 -0.2% -0.5% -0.5% Granville Exempted Village Schools 8

Revenue 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Capped Formula Formula Formula Formula Formula Funding Status ADM is resident students Formula ADM 2,459.58 2,483.82 2,518.81 2,511.36 2,529.41 2,558.27 State Share Index 33.2% 33.2% 32.6% 32.6% 32.0% 32.0% Core funding per pupil State Core Funding Per Pupil $1,998 $2,001 $1,969 $1,986 $1,966 $1,982 from the state is about $2,000. The district in GUARANTEE aggregate spends over Guarantee as % of Foundation Funding $12,000 per pupil # of ADM to come off Guarantee CAPPED Unfunded Cap as % of Foundation Funding # of ADM to drop below Cap FORMULA FUNDED: # of ADM to reach Cap 80.39 94.20 75.75 90.12 21.42 # of ADM to drop to Guarantee 101.66 13.82 32.46 16.61 78.03 Granville Exempted Village Schools 9

Change in State Aid Per Pupil, 2009/10 to 2016/17 3.2% Increase over 7 years Granville Exempted Village Schools 10

Projected State Aid 3.2% increase over 5 years, almost all in 2023, while enrollment is expected to increase by 3.4%, so per pupil funding is expected to decline slightly Granville Exempted Village Schools 11

Revenue For Capital-No New Levy PROJECTED CAPITAL BUDGET TAX REVENUE AND PROJECTED EXPENDITURE NEEDS School *Permanent Capital Park Trails Total Tax Future Capital Year Improvement Levy Maintenance Levy Assessment Revenue Plan Needs 2016/17 $757,789 $172,680 $159,072 $1,089,541 2017/18 $781,305 $180,086 $162,178 $1,123,569 2018/19 $749,660 $171,129 $163,227 $1,084,016 2019/20 $773,100 $84,100 $164,859 $1,022,059 $1,611,363 2020/21 $780,831 $0 $159,208 $940,039 $1,574,075 2021/22 $788,639 $0 $142,900 $931,539 $1,578,348 2022/23 $796,526 $0 $123,429 $919,955 $1,588,011 2023/24 $804,491 $0 $97,663 $902,154 2024/25 $812,536 $0 $70,740 $883,276 * Assumes renewal in 2019. Granville Exempted Village Schools 12

Expenditures 2016 2019 2022 2015 2019 2023 Salaries ######### ######### ######### Benefits 6,136,975.00 7,078,117.00 9,079,917.00 Benefits Benefits Benefits Purch Serv 3,338,223.00 27% 4,462,067.00 25% 5,343,255.00 26% Supp & Mat 892,761.00 Salaries 872,330.00 978,380.00 Salaries Salaries 55% 54% Capital Outlay 60,834.00 30,001.00 54% 30,001.00 Purch Serv Purch Serv Purch Serv Other Exp 586,449.00 504,969.00 510,811.00 15% 14% 16% Supp & Mat Supp & Mat Supp & Mat 3% 3% 3% Capital Capital Capital Other Exp Outlay Other Exp Outlay Other Exp Outlay 2% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% Granville Exempted Village Schools 13

Expenditures Prev. 5-Year PROJECTED 5-Year Avg. Annual Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Avg. Annual Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Change Expenditures: 3.010-Salaries 3.93% -0.10% 3.44% 3.84% 3.50% 3.46% 2.83% 3.020-Benefits 7.60% -6.26% 4.07% 6.58% 7.18% 7.91% 3.90% 3.030-Purchased Services 6.79% 3.28% 5.61% 4.92% 4.31% 3.60% 4.34% 3.040-Supplies & Materials 3.24% -2.47% 2.95% 2.96% 2.78% 2.95% 1.83% 3.050-Capital Outlay -18.91% 249.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 49.81% 3.060-Intergov n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.010-4.060-Debt 12.18% -63.01% -2.27% -2.48% -1.62% -2.47% -14.37% 4.300-Other Objects -1.66% -7.96% 1.83% 0.68% 1.83% 0.55% -0.61% 4.500-Total Expenditures 5.09% -2.11% 3.86% 4.58% 4.49% 4.55% 3.07% Impact of the RIF and other personnel actions and the restructuring of health insurance. The biggest cost pressures in 2020-2022 are from benefits (health insurance) and purchased services (mandatory spending to meet student needs). Granville Exempted Village Schools 14

Efficiency Actions • Over the past year, 11 staff members have left the district, not including the reductions made because of the levy failure • The annualized cost to the district of the 11 staff members who left was about $596,000 • The annualized cost to the district for those positions now, four of which were not filled and one was restructured, is about $318,000, a savings of $277,000 Granville Exempted Village Schools 15

Students Per Administrator Compared to Comparable Districts This is before the elimination of an Assistant Principal as part of the levy failure reductions There is currently one administrator for 712 students in the Elementary School and one for 581 students in the Intermediate School Granville Exempted Village Schools 16

Final Thoughts • The overall fiscal challenges have not changed, they have just been pushed out by one year due to the Reduction-in-Force and the projected implementation of pay-to-participate • Capital needs cannot be funded in the longer run without additional revenue • Failure to pass a levy by the end of this school year will require the district to act not only on the $400,000 operating deficit projected for next year but also on the $1.4 million deficit for the 2020/2021 school year. Granville Exempted Village Schools 17