MAY FIVE-YEAR FORECAST UPDATE MAY 23, 2018
Introduction • The five-year operating budget forecast is required by the state to be adopted by the Board twice per year—October and May • Levies that are not already passed by the voters cannot be included in the adopted forecast • The Board also reviews the capital budget in May • Capital spending levels for the upcoming year are approved as part of the temporary budget to be adopted in June Granville Exempted Village Schools 2
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year OCTOBER 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) + Revenue 28,493,364 28,718,771 29,141,323 29,524,022 29,911,937 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies - - - - - + Proposed New Levies - - - - - Impact of the RIFs and health - Expenditures (29,167,458) (29,384,692) (30,773,657) (32,226,751) (33,668,197) insurance changes reflected = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (674,094) (665,921) (1,632,334) (2,702,729) (3,756,260) in circled numbers Ending Balance 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) (5,060,573) Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year CURRENT 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 4,328,492 3,703,044 3,154,976 1,624,127 + Revenue 29,493,047 28,465,550 29,400,444 29,797,681 30,170,330 2018 and 2019 distorted + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies - - - - - by nearly $600,000 of + Proposed New Levies - - - - - accelerated property tax - Expenditures (29,535,321) (29,090,998) (29,948,512) (31,328,530) (32,706,889) collections. = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (42,273) (625,448) (548,068) (1,530,849) (2,536,559) Ending Balance 4,328,492 3,703,044 3,154,976 1,624,127 (912,432) GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS
Monthly Cash Flow Projected Monthly Cash Flow Board Approved Cash Balance Policy $ 2,935,795 $12,000,000 Cash balance on the previous $10,000,000 table is as of June 30 each year. Cash balance on $8,000,000 January 31, 2019 is projected to be about $2.9 million $6,000,000 lower than on June 30, 2018 4,328,504 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 1,396,935 1,294,825 $0 7.020 - Ending Cash Balance Board Approved Cash Balance Policy 2018 2019 GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS
Budget Reductions Annual Change Resulting from Modeling Below - (389,058) (61,599) 2018 2019 2020 3.010 - Personnel Services 14,934,781 15,716,328 15,865,413 Modeled Percentage Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Annual Dollar Change from Percentage - - - Other Dollar Amount $0 ($309,855) $0 Total Annual Amount - (309,855) - 85% Current Year Impact - (263,377) (46,478) % of Salaries Impact on Fringe Benefits 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% Memo Only - Fringe Benefit Reduction - (43,984) (7,762) 020 - Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits 7,200,076 6,897,019 6,649,011 Modeled Percentage Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Annual Dollar Change from Percentage - - - Other Dollar Amount $0 ($49,056) $0 Shifting of convenience fees from Pay-for-It Total Annual Amount - (49,056) - 85% Current Year Impact - (41,698) (7,358) 3.030 - Purchased Services 4,073,496 4,246,267 4,327,825 Modeled Percentage Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Annual Dollar Change from Percentage - - - Other Dollar Amount $0 ($40,000) $0 In addition to the budget reductions, pay-to- Total Annual Amount - (40,000) - participate is anticipated to generate about Total Annual Amount Incurred/Allocated - (389,058) (61,599) $175,000 per year. Gross Annual Change - (442,895) (7,762) Granville Exempted Village Schools 5
Capital Budget Had Levy Passed Capital Budget, Current FY 2019 FY 2019 Other Technology 115,000 Other Technology 115,000 Staff Computer Replacement 50,000 Staff Computer Replacement 50,000 Other Computer Replacement 187,500 Other Computer Replacement 87,500 Dell Computers 43,420 Dell Computers 43,420 One-to-One 96,600 One-to-One 96,600 Concrete & Asphalt 135,000 Concrete & Asphalt 135,000 Flooring 115,000 Flooring 0 Mechanicals 350,000 Mechanicals 350,000 Projects 160,000 Projects 60,000 Roofs 135,000 Roofs 135,000 Textbooks 75,000 Textbooks 0 Musical Instruments 15,000 Musical Instruments 15,000 Theater Upkeep 12,000 Theater Upkeep 12,000 Furniture 40,000 Furniture 0 General Maintenance 95,500 General Maintenance 95,500 Buses 91,000 Buses 91,000 Security Cameras and Radios/Safety 37,000 Security Cameras and Radios/Safety 37,000 Other Vehicles 49,000 Other Vehicles 32,000 Roof Interest 33,317 Roof Interest 33,317 Fees 24,000 Fees 24,000 Contingency 50,000 Contingency 50,000 Total 1,909,337 Total 1,462,337 Granville Exempted Village Schools 6
Real property tax payment acceleration Granville Exempted Village Schools 7
Granville Exempted Village Schools 8
Head Count Summary/Analysis GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SD 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Prior Year Actual/Estimated Enrollment (October Count) 2,455 2,480 2,485 2,521 2,504 Projected Changes to Prior Year Enrollment Net All-Grade Level Mobility Factor (Change) to Prior Year 70 74 72 73 73 Net Aggregate Manual Adjustments to Mobility Factor 4 0 0 0 0 New Kindergartners In 159 143 158 142 170 Loss of Seniors from Prior Year -208 -212 -194 -232 -202 Net Change in Outgoing and Incoming Pupils -49 -69 -36 -90 -32 Current Year Estimated Enrollment (Simulated October Count 2,480 2,485 2,521 2,504 2,545 District Head Count Grade K 159 143 158 142 170 1 169 181 162 180 161 2 192 179 192 172 191 176 199 185 199 178 3 4 191 186 210 195 210 5 179 197 192 216 201 6 186 186 205 199 224 7 198 187 187 206 200 8 195 204 192 192 212 9 202 200 209 197 197 10 230 200 198 207 195 In October, 2018 11 191 229 199 197 206 headcount was 2,452 12 212 194 232 202 200 Total Can Differ by Rounding 2,480 2,485 2,521 2,504 2,545 Year-Over-Year Percentage Change 1.02% 0.20% 1.45% -0.67% 1.64% Granville Exempted Village Schools 9
Revenue Granville Exempted Village Schools 10
Revenue YOY BOR/Update/Reappraisal Tax Year Agricultural Residential Class II (All) 2009 1.5% 0.2% -0.6% 2010 -1.4% 0.1% -1.5% 2011 8.5% -0.6% 1.0% 2012 -0.2% -0.6% -8.6% 2013 -1.1% 0.0% -0.5% The 14% increase in 2017 valuation, which reflects 2014 21.4% 0.2% 0.0% three years of valuation growth, provides the 2015 0.5% 0.0% -0.4% district with about 1.5% revenue growth (which is 2016 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% per year). Property tax rates are reduced to 2017 -1.3% 14.0% 3.7% offset the increase in values. 2018 -0.2% 0.0% -0.5% 2019 -0.2% 0.0% -0.5% 2020 0.5% 6.0% 1.8% 2021 -0.2% -0.5% -0.5% Granville Exempted Village Schools 11
Revenue 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Formula Capped Formula Guarantee Guarantee Guarantee Funding Status ADM is resident students Formula ADM 2,431.43 2,478.26 2,477.76 2,506.26 2,497.26 2,524.26 State Share Index 31.7% 33.4% 33.4% 32.2% 32.2% 31.2% Core funding per pupil State Core Funding Per Pupil $1,905 $2,007 $2,010 $1,964 $1,996 $1,966 from the state is about $2,000. The district in aggregate spends over GUARANTEE $12,000 per pupil Guarantee as % of Foundation Funding 1.3% 0.0% 0.7% # of ADM to come off Guarantee 35.24 0.53 17.88 CAPPED Unfunded Cap as % of Foundation Funding 0.9% # of ADM to drop below Cap 23.29 FORMULA FUNDED: # of ADM to reach Cap 54.35 # of ADM to drop to Guarantee 103.57 Granville Exempted Village Schools 12
Expenditures Granville Exempted Village Schools 13
Expenditures PROJECTED Prev. 5-Year 5-Year Avg. Annual Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Avg. Annual 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Change Change Expenditures: 3.010-Salaries 1.52% 5.63% 0.66% 3.39% 3.83% 3.50% 3.40% 3.020-Benefits 4.60% 4.47% -6.43% 4.65% 6.61% 6.80% 3.22% 3.030-Purchased Services 6.68% 3.48% 2.86% 5.94% 4.98% 4.37% 4.32% 3.040-Supplies & Materials 1.00% 3.13% 2.99% 2.91% 2.93% 2.95% 2.98% 3.050-Capital Outlay -2.34% -55.96% 140.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.81% 3.060-Intergov n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.010-4.060-Debt 0.00% 60.92% -63.01% -2.27% -2.48% -1.62% -1.69% 4.300-Other Objects 10.50% -3.15% -8.38% 1.77% 1.77% 1.77% -1.25% 4.500-Total Expenditures 2.94% 5.22% -1.68% 4.02% 4.61% 4.40% 3.32% Impact of the RIF and the restructuring of health insurance. The biggest cost pressures in 2020-2022 are from benefits (health insurance) and purchased services (mandatory spending to meet student needs). Granville Exempted Village Schools 14
Final Thoughts • The overall fiscal challenges have not changed, they have just been pushed out by one year due to the Reduction-in-Force and the projected implementation of pay-to-participate • Capital needs cannot be funded in the longer run without additional revenue Granville Exempted Village Schools 15
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