FORECAST 20 Electricity Savings in Vermont From 20 Years of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

FORECAST 20 Electricity Savings in Vermont From 20 Years of Continued End-Use Efficiency Investment John Plunkett Presentation to The Vermont Systems Planning Committee South Burlington, VT December 9, 2009 1

Overview Forecast Results • Statewide • Residential • Business • Zonal Budgets Cost Benefit Analysis Methodology Major Drivers of Change • Codes & Standards • CFLs vs. SSL • Sensitivity Analysis Conclusion & Recommendations 2

The Big Picture 963 GWh / year by 2027 188 MW / year Summer Peak by 2027 160 MW / year Winter Peak by 2027 Societal Test Electric System Test PV of Net Benefits ($M) $1,719 $1,016 Benefit-Cost Ratio 4.11 3.47 3

Comments Received 4

50 / 50 Zonal Forecast • Redone, based on sector energy data • Additional appendix item will include details 5

From VELCO Question: How to apply study results Response: The conclusion and recommendations section now include detailed application instructions Comment: Inclusion of the 90 / 10 zonal forecast Response: The report now includes this 6

From GMP and DPS • Addressed in report as appropriate • Memo by end of week to answer any remaining comments and questions 7

Statewide Electric Forecasts 8

Projected Growth Rates ENERGY (GWh) SUMMER PEAK (MW) Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted Years VELCO Forecast Net VELCO Forecast VELCO VELCO Forecast of Future Forecast Net of Forecast Forecast DSM Future DSM 2008- 0.8% 1.3% (0.5)% 1.2% 1.6% 0.3% 2012 2013- 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 1.3% 0.2% 2017 2018- 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 2027 2008- 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 2027 9

Statewide Energy Forecast Forecast Statewide Energy Forecast 8,000 7,000 6,000 VELCO Forecast 5,000 GWh 4,000 Adjusted Itron 3,000 Forecast 2,000 Adjusted Forecast Net of Future DSM 1,000 - 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 10

Summer Peak Demand Forecast Summer Peak Forecast Summer Peak Demand Forecast 1,600 1,400 1,200 VELCO Forecast 1,000 MW 800 Adjusted VELCO 600 Forecast 400 Adjusted Forecast Net of Future DSM 200 - 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 11

Winter Peak Demand Forecast Winter Peak Demand Forecast Winter Peak Forecast 1,400 1,200 1,000 VELCO Forecast MW 800 Adjusted VELCO 600 Forecast 400 Adjusted Forecast 200 Net of Future DSM - 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 12

90 / 10 Scenario Development Assumed substantial reductions in yields in all markets: • Lower kWh per $ of program investment • Lower summer peak kW per kWh saved 13

90 / 10 Forecast Results SUMMER PEAK (MW) Adjusted Adjusted Years VELCO Forecast VELCO Forecast Net of Forecast Future DSM 2008- 1.2% 1.6% 1.0% 2012 2013- 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 2017 2018- 1.2% 1.6% 1.5% 2027 2008- 1.1% 1.5% 1.2% 2027 14

90 / 10 Summer Peak Demand Savings Forecast 90/10 Summer Peak Forecast 1,800 1,600 1,400 VELCO Forecast 1,200 MW 1,000 Adjusted VELCO 800 Forecast 600 Adjusted Forecast 400 Net of Future DSM 200 - 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 15

Residential Forecasts 16

Projected Residential Growth Rates ENERGY (GWh) SUMMER PEAK (MW) Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted Forecast Adjusted Forecast Years VELCO VELCO VELCO Net of VELCO Net of Forecast Forecast Forecast Future Forecast Future DSM DSM 2008- 0.8% 1.1% (1.8%) 1.9% 1.7% 0.1% 2012 2013- 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.4% 2017 2018- 1.2% 2.0% 3.0% 1.7% 2.0% 2.5% 2027 2008- 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 2027 17

Residential Electric Energy Requirements 18

Residential Summer Peak Demand Forecast 19

Residential Winter Peak Demand Forecast 20

Residential Incremental MWh Saved, by End Use 21

Residential Cumulative MWh Saved, by End Use 22

Residential Incremental Summer Peak MW Saved, by End Use 23

Residential Cumulative Summer Peak MW Saved, by End Use 24

Business Forecasts 25

Projected Business Growth Rates ENERGY (GWh) SUMMER PEAK (MW) Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted Forecast Adjusted Years VELCO VELCO Forecast Net VELCO Net of VELCO Forecast Forecast of Future Forecast Future Forecast DSM DSM 2008- 0.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.8% 1.6% 0.4% 2012 2013- 0.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 2017 2018- 0.9% 1.4% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4% 0.8% 2027 2008- 0.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 0.5% 2027 26

Business Electric Energy Requirements 27

Business Summer Peak Demand Forecast 28

Business Winter Peak Demand Forecast 29

Business Incremental MWh Saved, by End Use 30

Business Cumulative MWh Saved, by End Use 31

Business Incremental Summer Peak MW Saved, by End Use 32

Business Cumulative Summer Peak MW Saved, by End Use 33

Zonal Forecasts 34

Vermont Potential Load Zones A Newport B St. Albans C Johnson D Morrisville E Montpelier F St. Johnsbury G BED H IBM Chittenden\Addison I GMP J Middlebury K Central - Barnard L Proctor (Florence) M Rutland N Ascutney O Southern P Highgate 2 35

Southern Zone Summer Peak Forecast (MW) Ascutney Zone Summer Peak Forecast (MW) Adjusted Adjusted Forecast Forecast Adjusted Net of Adjusted Net of VELCO VELCO Future Future VELCO VELCO Future Future Year Forecast Forecast DSM DSM Year Forecast Forecast DSM DSM 2008 139 139 2 138 2008 78 78 0 78 2009 142 142 3 140 2009 79 80 1 79 2010 143 145 4 141 2010 80 81 1 80 2011 145 147 5 142 2011 81 82 1 81 2012 147 150 6 144 2012 82 83 1 82 2013 148 151 7 144 2013 82 84 1 83 2014 149 153 7 145 2014 83 85 2 83 2015 150 155 8 147 2015 84 86 2 84 2016 152 157 9 148 2016 84 87 2 85 2017 154 160 9 150 2017 85 88 2 86 2018 156 163 10 153 2018 86 90 2 88 2019 158 166 10 156 2019 87 91 2 89 2020 160 168 11 158 2020 88 92 2 90 2021 162 171 11 160 2021 89 94 2 92 2022 164 175 12 163 2022 90 95 2 93 2023 167 178 11 166 2023 91 97 2 95 2024 169 181 11 170 2024 92 98 2 96 2025 171 185 11 174 2025 93 100 2 98 2026 174 188 11 177 2026 94 102 2 99 2027 176 192 11 180 2027 95 103 2 101 36

Rutland Zone Summer Peak Forecast (MW) Florence Zone Summer Peak Forecast (MW) Adjusted Adjusted Forecast Forecast Adjusted Net of Adjusted Net of VELCO VELCO Future Future VELCO VELCO Future Future Year Forecast Forecast DSM DSM Year Forecast Forecast DSM DSM 2008 111 112 1 110 2008 31 31 0 31 2009 113 114 2 112 2009 31 31 0 31 2010 115 116 3 113 2010 32 32 0 32 2011 116 118 4 114 2011 32 32 0 32 2012 118 120 5 115 2012 32 33 0 33 2013 118 121 5 116 2013 32 33 0 33 2014 119 122 6 117 2014 33 33 0 33 2015 120 124 6 118 2015 33 34 0 34 2016 122 126 7 119 2016 33 34 0 34 2017 123 128 7 121 2017 33 35 0 35 2018 125 130 7 123 2018 34 35 0 35 2019 126 132 8 125 2019 34 36 0 36 2020 128 135 8 126 2020 34 36 0 36 2021 129 137 8 129 2021 35 37 0 37 2022 131 139 9 131 2022 35 37 0 37 2023 133 142 9 133 2023 35 38 0 38 2024 135 145 9 136 2024 36 38 0 38 2025 137 147 8 139 2025 36 39 0 39 2026 139 150 8 142 2026 37 40 0 40 2027 141 153 9 144 2027 37 40 0 40 37

Central Zone Summer Peak Forecast (MW) Middlebury Zone Summer Peak Forecast (MW) Adjusted Forecast Adjusted Adjusted Net of Adjusted Forecast VELCO VELCO Future Future VELCO VELCO Future Net of Year Forecast Forecast DSM DSM Year Forecast Forecast DSM Future DSM 2008 70 70 1 69 2008 41 41 0 40 2009 72 72 1 71 2009 41 42 1 41 2010 73 73 2 72 2010 42 42 1 41 2011 74 75 3 72 2011 42 43 1 42 2012 74 76 3 73 2012 43 44 1 42 2013 75 76 3 73 2013 43 44 2 42 2014 75 77 4 74 2014 43 44 2 43 2015 76 78 4 74 2015 44 45 2 43 2016 77 79 4 75 2016 44 46 2 43 2017 78 81 5 76 2017 45 46 2 44 2018 79 82 5 77 2018 45 47 2 45 2019 80 83 5 78 2019 46 48 2 45 2020 80 85 5 79 2020 46 49 3 46 2021 81 86 5 81 2021 47 49 3 47 2022 82 88 5 82 2022 47 50 3 47 2023 83 89 5 84 2023 48 51 3 48 2024 84 91 5 85 2024 48 52 3 49 2025 86 92 5 87 2025 49 53 3 50 2026 87 94 5 89 2026 50 54 3 51 2027 88 95 5 90 2027 50 55 3 52 38