Demographic Forecast Overview Variables to prepare: Population - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demographic Forecast Overview  Variables to prepare:  Population  Households  Household size  Jobs (with categories)  Household income  Non-standard generators  Two-part process:  County-level  Small-area level

Demographic Forecast Overview  County-level  Gather historical data ( com plete )  Obtain 2013 baseline estimates ( com plete )  Forecast “control totals” ( draft com plete )  Small-area level  Define geography (RAZ/ TAZ) ( com plete )  Develop 2013 baseline estimates ( com plete )  Develop RAZ/ TAZ forecast ( in process )

Forecast Geographies - RAZ

Forecast Geographies – RAZ and TAZ

County-Level Process Detail  Collect historical data  Population / households / income – Census and ACS  Employment – QCEW  Gather and compare other projections  TxSDC (3 scenarios)  TxWDB  Woods and Poole  Gather / analyze comparable counties historical data  DFW area  Other TX metro suburbanizing counties

Comparable Suburbanizing Counties  DFW area  Collin  Denton  Other metros  Houston – Brazoria, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Waller  Austin – Bastrop, Hays, Williamson  San Antonio - Comal

Comparable Suburbanizing Counties Ann. Growth Rate 10 .0 % 9 .0 % 8 .0 % 7.0 % 6 .0 % 5.0 % 4.0 % 3.0 % 2.0 % 1.0 % 0 .0 % Year 1-10 Year 10-20 Year 20-30 Year 30-40 Collin Denton Fort Bend Montgomery Brazoria Williamson Hays Comal Bastrop Waller

County-Level Process Approach  Population-driven  Analysis of historical growth and growth rates in comparable suburbanizing counties  Assessment of timing for large-scale suburban development  Examination of other Grayson County projections  Examination of TxSDC 1.0 DFW-area county projections

Grayson C0unty Draft Forecast Historical and Projected Population Grayson Co. 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 35 20 40 20 45 20 50 Total 120,877 125,467 135,200 148,044 168,770 198,474 237,176 282,477 334,876 5 Yr. Growth 4,590 9,733 12,844 20,726 29,704 38,702 45,301 52,399 Historical and Projected Compound Annual Growth Rates Grayson Co. 20 10 -15 20 15-20 20 20 -25 20 25-30 20 30 -35 20 35-40 20 40 -45 20 45-50 0.7% 1.5% 1.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% CAGR

Projected Grayson Annual Growth Rates 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50 CDS Grayson TxSDC 1.0 TWDB Woods & Poole

Other DFW-Area County Projections

DFW Area Counties Forecast Growth Rates 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50 CDS Grayson TxSDC Grayson TxSDC Collin TxSDC Denton TxSDC Cooke TxSDC Hood TxSDC Hunt

Household and Employment Forecasts  Generated via ratios to population Historical and Projected Households Grayson Co. 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 35 20 40 20 45 20 50 Total 46,905 47,538 50,448 55,866 64,416 76,631 93,376 112,541 135,577 5 Yr. Growth 2,910 2,910 5,418 8,550 12,215 16,746 19,164 23,037 Historical and Projected Employment Grayson Co. 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 35 20 40 20 45 20 50 Total 41,606 44,755 49,222 54,935 63,917 76,941 94,483 116,032 142,203 5 Yr. Growth 3,149 4,467 5,713 8,982 13,023 17,542 21,549 26,171

Next Steps: Small-Area Growth Forecast  RAZ level  Analyze and “score” growth factors  Allocate county growth to RAZs (shift-share) per scoring  Primary research to make adjustments to growth shares  Infrastructure improvements  Floodplains / environmental conditions  Other large-scale factors

Next Steps: Small-Area Growth Forecast  RAZ-to-TAZ growth allocation (shift-share)  Research to determine growth shares and adjustments  Planned developments  Ownership characteristics  Local planning policies

Draft RAZ-Level Forecast – 2013-2050

Draft RAZ-Level Forecast – 2010-2020

Draft RAZ-Level Forecast – 2020-2030

Draft RAZ-Level Forecast – 2030-2040

Draft RAZ-Level Forecast – 2040-2050