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Overview Overview • Regional demographic overview Regional demographic overview • Workforce supply analysis • Regional demand for workers i l d d f k • Balancing supply and demand • Reviewing key cluster trends • Key challenges for future workforce Key challenges for future workforce development policy 2
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE Regional Growth Continues Faster than the US and Tennessee 3
Recent and Projected Population Growth for the Nashville Economic Market Area for the Nashville Economic Market Area 2.5% 2.4% U.S. Tennessee 2.0% Nashville Area ation Growth 1.5% Annual Popula 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0 8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0 3% 0.3% 0 3% 0.3% 0.0% 2004-2009 2009-2014 2014-2019 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates; Projections from EMSI
Annual Population Growth in the Greater Nashville Area G N h ill A (2004 to 2009) Annual Population Annual Population 2.5% Growth 2.6% 2.4% (2004-2009) 1.2% More than 3.4% 1.3% 1.3% 3.0% 2.4% to 3.4% Less than 2.4% 3 9% 3.9% 4 0% 4.0% *United States: 0.9% **Tennessee: 1.3% ***Nashville Area: 2.4% 2.6% 0 20 Miles Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates 5
Nashville Region Commuting Patterns 0 25 Miles Commuters 20 000+ 20,000+ 10,000 to 19,999 5,000 to 9,999 2,500 to 4,999 1,000 to 2,499 6 Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics (2008)
Migration Patterns for the Nashville Economic Market Area 140,000 In-migrants 120,000 Out-migrants 115,440 Average AnnualIncome Average Annual Income In-migrants: $45,222 100,000 102,935 Out-migrants: $43,160 7-2008) 80,000 Migrants (2007 60,000 58,179 55,391 54,877 46 809 46,809 M 40,000 20,000 0 Total In-State Out of State 7 Source: US Internal Revenue Service
Largest Origins and Destinations of Nashville Area Migrants, 2007 ‐ 2008 N h ill A Mi 2007 2008 1 400 1,400 Total Arriving to Nashville Total Leaving Nashville 1,200 1,000 nts (2007-08) 800 umber of Migran 600 N 400 200 0 8 Source: IRS
Age Structure of the Existing Population Population 140,000 126,494 120,000 100,000 ange, 2000 ‐ 2009 80,000 Population Cha 67,582 60,000 46,772 , 40 000 40,000 39,917 24,357 20,000 0 Pre & Young Schoolers (0 ‐ Next Gen Talent (10 ‐ 19) Prime Working Age (20 ‐ Pre ‐ Retirees (55 ‐ 64) Retirees (65 and over) 9 9) 54) Source: U.S Census Bureau Population Estimates
Population Growth by Ethnicity Population Growth by Ethnicity 9% U.S. U.S. Tennessee 8.5% 8% Greater Nashville Area 8.0% 7% lation (2004-2009) 6% 5% 4.9% 4 9% % Change in Popul 4% 4.0% 3.3% 3% % 2.7% 2.3% 2% 1.8% 1% 1.3% 1.0% 1 0% 0 9% 0.9% 0.2% 0% White alone Black or African American Hispanic or Latino (of any Asian 10 race) Ethnicity Source: Census, EMSI
WORKFORCE SUPPLY WORKFORCE SUPPLY Unemployment Up; Lower Skill Workers at Greatest Risk 11
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate 12% US Tennessee 10.5% 10% Nashville Area 9 3% 9.3% 9.3% 8% ent Rate Unemployme 6% 5.5% 5.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4% 4% 2% 0% 12 2004 2009 Source: Bureauof Labor Statistics
Unemployment by Educational Level in Nashville Market Area (2006 2008) Nashville Market Area (2006 ‐ 2008) 12.0% Source: American Community Survey 9.9% 10.0% 18.7% 21.0% 8.0% Less than high school graduate 6.0% 5.5% 5.5% Hi h High school graduate h l d 4.5% avg. 4.0% 4.0% Some college or associate's 25.7% degree degree 2.5% 34.6% 2.0% Bachelor's degree or higher 0.0% Less than high school graduate High school graduate Some college or associate's Bachelor's degree or higher 13 Source: American Community Survey degree
Unemployment by Educational Level in Nashville Metro Area (2009) Nashville Metro Area (2009) 20.0% 18.3% Source: American Community Survey 18.0% 16.0% 16.7% 19.1% 14.0% Less than high school 12.0% graduate 10.1% 10.0% Hi h High school graduate h l d 7.8% Nashville Metro Area: 7.7% 8.0% Some college or associate's 29.7% 6.0% degree degree 34.5% 3.5% 4.0% Bachelor's degree or higher 2.0% 0.0% Less than high school graduate High school graduate Some college or associate's Bachelor's degree or higher 14 Source: American Community Survey degree
Educational Attainment of Population Aged 25 and Above 40% % U.S. Tennessee 35% Greater Nashville Area 33.5% 30% 30% 29.5% 28.1% ation (25+) 25% 23.6% 22.0%22.1% % of Popula 20% 18.9% 17.0% 15% 14.1% 11.4% 10% 10.6% 9.7% 9.3% 8.9% 7.5% 6.4% 6.2% 6.3% 5% 5.7% 5.2% 3.9% 0% Less than 9th 9th to 12th grade, High School Some College, no Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate/ grade no diploma Graduate (includes degree Professional equivalency) 15 Educational Attainment (2009) Source: EMSI
Areas with Concentrations of High Educational Attainers h d l 16
Earnings by Educational Attainment (2006 ‐ 2008) ( ) $55,452 G Graduate or professional d t f i l $54,165 degree $63,174 $45,477 Bachelor's degree g $43,095 $47,853 $34,121 Some college or associate's $31,019 degree $33,838 $33 838 $28,583 High school graduate (includes $25,485 Greater Nashville Area equivalency) $27,448 T ennessee $20,584 US Less than high school graduate $18,918 $19,989 $34 712 $34,712 Average Wages for Population $30,562 25+ $34,483 17 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 Source: ACS
WORKFORCE DEMAND WORKFORCE DEMAND Continued Opportunities in Services, Extended Road to Recovery 18
Nashville Supersectors as Percent of Total Employment l l 18.7% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 18.0% 18 0% 14.1% Professional & Business Services 15.9% 13.1% Education & Health Services 14.7% 10.7% Government 10.4% 10.6% Leisure & Hospitality 10.0% 10.0% 10 0% Financial Activities 10.8% 7.1% Manufacturing 5.3% 6.0% Construction Construction 6.2% 5.7% Other Services 5.7% 2009 2.5% 2019 Information 2.2% 1.4% Agriculture & Mining 0.9% 19 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Percent of Total Employment Source: EMSI
Projected “Supersector” Industry Growth Trend h d N Nashville Economic Market Area h ill E i M k t A U S U.S Emp Annual Annual 2009 Emp Change Growth Growth Estimate 2009 ‐ 2019 Rate Rate Supersector Trade, Transportation & Utilities 199,316 19,288 0.9% 0.4% Professional & Business Services 150,418 42,933 2.5% 2.0% Education & Health Services Ed ti & H lth S i 139,121 139 121 39 042 39,042 2 5% 2.5% 2 1% 2.1% Government 113,385 13,493 1.1% 0.6% Leisure & Hospitality 113,268 8,416 0.7% 0.9% Financial Activities 106,953 , 23,767 , 2.0% 1.9% Manufacturing 75,814 ‐ 11,805 ‐ 1.7% ‐ 0.9% Construction 63,670 12,230 1.8% 1.0% Other Services 60,621 8,922 1.4% 1.1% I f Information ti 26 480 26,480 ‐ 323 323 ‐ 0.1% 0 1% 0 4% 0.4% Agriculture & Mining 15,275 ‐ 4,326 ‐ 3.3% 0.0% Total 1,064,321 151,637 1.3% 1.1% 20 Source: EMSI
Fastest Growing High Wage Occupations Emp Emp Annual Annual 2009 Emp Change Growth Rate Median Educational SOC Occupation Estimate 2009-2019 2009-2019 Earnings Requirements Associate's 29-1111 Registered nurses 16,346 5,561 2.97% $28.76 degree Bachelor's Bachelor s 13-2011 Accountants & auditors 9,504 3,070 2.84% $21.89 degree First-line supervisors/managers of office & administrative support Work exp. in a 43-1011 workers 12,110 2,297 1.75% $20.66 related field Work exp. in a 11-9199 Managers, all other 10,695 2,109 1.82% $20.27 related field Degree plus 13-1111 Management analysts work exp. 5,939 1,955 2.89% $25.36 Source: EMSI G Greater than Regional Median Earnings of $17.30 t th R i l M di E i f $17 30 21
Preparing for Transition The region’s Most at ‐ risk Occupations h ’ k Emp Annual 2009 Emp Change Growth Rate Median Educational SOC Occupation Estimate 2009-2019 2009-2019 Earnings Requirements 11-9012 Farmers & ranchers 9,161 (3,456) -4.63% $7.26 Long-term OJT Moderate-term 51-2092 Team assemblers 11,085 (1,102) -1.04% $18.79 OJT Combined food preparation & serving workers, including fast 35 3021 food 35-3021 food 18,008 18,008 (779) (779) -0.44% 0.44% $8.07 $8.07 Short-term OJT Short term OJT Farm, ranch, & other agricultural Degree plus 11-9011 managers 2,218 (654) -3.43% $11.15 work exp. 53-7064 Hand packers & packagers Short-term OJT 5,014 (477) -0.99% $9.38 Source: EMSI 22
Employment Share by Education Requirement 30.0% 30 0% Advanced Degree 3% 4 ‐ Year College Degree 25.0% 24.0% 23.7% 18% 18% Advanced Degree Short ‐ Term Training 5% 33% 20.0% Short ‐ Short Term 16.5% 4 ‐ Year Training 15.4% 15.1% College 24% 15.0% Degree 24% Tech/Some Postsec T h/S P t 9% Moderate 10.0% Training Tech / Long 15% Some Term Postsec Training/ Training/ 17% 5.3% Exp 5.0% 15% % of New Jobs Long Term 0.0% Training/Exp 4 ‐ Year College Short ‐ Term Training Tech/Some Postsec Moderate Training Long Term Advanced Degree Moderate Training 18% Degree Training/Exp 19% Source: EMSI % of Total Jobs
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