Modeling for Emission of Domestic Waste in China Takeshi Fujiwara February 20, 2006 Matsuoka Laboratory Kyoto University
Background (1) � Waste emission increases in Asian countries, especially in urban area, according to economic development. � Generally, increase in income promotes consumption of goods and makes the amount of domestic waste large. � On the other hand, building waste disposal sites near the town becomes difficult because of opposition by the residents (NIMBY), therefore, new disposal sites tend to be built at farther place. � As people desire sanitary life and clean city, waste collection becomes frequent and waste transportation becomes longer, therefore, the larger number of waste collection cars and more fuel are necessary. � Since such the waste problem in the developing city is imperative, it is important to estimate waste emission in future and to design an appropriate waste management plan.
Background (2) � Not only goods and but also waste goods (including secondhand goods) are traded between Asian countries. � The developing country which has labor power by low wage imports the waste goods to reuse or extract valuable things. It is pointed as a serious problem that the residual of the waste, possibly including hazardous materials, is not adequately treated. � This means developing sound material cycle is not a subject of one country but a subject of the world. Production incineration Trade of valuable wastes Country Country Trade of goods recycling disposal recycling disposal
Background (3) � From the viewpoint of climate change problem, emission of CO2 from waste collection cars and CH4 from landfill sites should be focused on. Recently, CH4 gas is recovered in some landfill sites through � equipped gas collection pipes, and such activity is often conducted as a CDM project. � Adoption of waste recycling facility, such as composting and biogas generator, should be considered in the waste management plan. � (To develop sound material society, actions of Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle [3R] are essential.) � We are tackling not only waste estimation but also material flow analysis.
Objectives � Comprehension of material flow in the country and material transportation between countries by using statistics of monetary and material flow and stock is the first step. � Consumer’s purchasing power and preference drives production activity of industry, and the household generates domestic waste and the industry generates industrial waste. We develop such driving mechanism by using economic model. Using social and economic scenarios, future material flow in the � world (specially Asian countries) is figured out and waste emission is also projected. � Appropriate waste management system including waste collection, treatment and disposal, corresponding to the country is considered.
Future projection of Scenario of Chinese economy Modeling of waste estimation population growth International macro economy model Imported waste Scenario of Industrial waste models urbanization Econometric model input and output for China model Econometric model Domestic waste model Waste recycling for city model Industrial technology model Expenditure estimation model Non-hazardous Hazardous waste Waste Domestic waste Emission model Service of Urban and detoxification Domestic rural model Domestic Waste waste Model Scenario of Treatment & Lifestyle Disposal Treatment & Disposal
Classification of consumer expenditure Major Middle Fine Category Category Category Private Final Ordinary Rice Foods Grain Rice Consumption Expenditure Sticky Rice Meat Housing Loaf Bread Bread Fish Utilities Econometric Others Model Fresh ･･･ ･･･ Beef Meat Pork Eat Others ･･･ Out Fresh Tuna Fish Saury ･･･ Consumer Statistical Waste ･･･ Preference Expenditure Conversion Model Model Matrix
Macro Econometric Model exogenous Total fixed Stock of Capital endogenous Population age 15-64 Capital Time trend Labors GDP GDP ratio by each Population Private Final industry Consumption Population age Expenditure greater equal to 65 Governmental Final World Trade Consumption GDP of primary Merchandise industry Export of Goods and Price Index of Service GDP of second World Exported industry Industrial Products Import of Goods and Service GDP of third Currency industry Exchange Rate against Dollar
Estimation of Waste Emission, Evaluation of Waste Treatment, for Domestic Waste Waste amount of Nondurable Indices for consumption each category consumer goods Garbage Expenditure Recycling Food Macro Paper Consumer Waste Treatment GDP Disposal Econo- Cloth Expenditure Emission Evaluation metric Wood, Bamboo Model Model Model Income CO2 emission Education Model Plastics Culture, Population Cost Leisure Metals Hazardous Household Others material Glasses Durable goods Macro Others Consumer Treatment Waste Electric Econometric Expenditure Evaluation appliance Emission Model Model Model Furniture Model (2 stage model) (LCA, Optimization) (Conversion matrix) Others
Consumer Preference Model Foods Cloths Consumer Housing Consumer Preference Expenditure Utilities Model ….. ….. GDP Others Household Population ∏ α = − δ Household u ( M ) k k k labors k Household ∑ = Change in economic E P M aged persons k k condition and lifestyle k ….. ….. …..
Statistical Expenditure Model Major category of Middle categories consumer expenditure Grains of consumer expenditure Kimono Vegetables Foods Logit model European Meats cloth Logit model Cloth Housing Daily Electricity Shirts expense products Logit model Housing Inner Maintenance Gas ….. cloth Utility Logit model Water ….. ….. Logit model ….. Others ….. Others ….. ….. Social and economic indices ….. GDP Household β Population ' exp( x ) α = j j Household ∑ β j labors ' exp( x ) q q Household q aged persons = ( x x l m n ( , , )) j j ….. ….. …..
Example of Model Output Output of expenditure estimation (“O city” in Japan) 3500 X G R A N Y G R A N H FO O D S H FO O D 500 X FISH Y FISH X M E A T Y M E A T X M IL K Y M IL K 3000 X V E G E Y V E G E X FR U T Y FR U T 400 X O IL S Y O IL S X SW E T Y SW E T 2500 X C O O K Y C O O K X D R N K Y D R N K X L IQ R Y L IQ R X E O U T Y E O U T 2000 300 1500 200 1000 100 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202 5 2030 1990 19 95 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Consumer preference model Statistical expenditure model
Current Status of Modeling Work � The estimation model of domestic waste will be validated by applying it to Japan case and Siga prefecture case. � We collaborate with a Chinese scholar to collect waste statistics data and to apply the model to Chinese major cities. � Impact of 3R activity in waste management on reduction of GHG emission will be assessed.
Future Research � Industrial waste emission model will be developed. This model uses IO table and special knowledge of industrial process. � The model of domestic waste estimation will be applied to Asian countries. � Utilization of bio waste, such as agricultural waste, food industry waste, kitchen waste and so on for energy production and also reduction of GHG emission will be evaluated.
Thank you for kindly attention
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