LCS LCS LCSs for China LCSs for China s for China s for China R Residential Residential sector and R id id i l i l sector and d d transportation sector transportation sector p China team China team Tsukuba, w orkshop Tsukuba, w orkshop Tsukuba, w orkshop Tsukuba, w orkshop 2 0 0 8 / 1 0 / 3 1 2 0 0 8 / 1 0 / 3 1
D D Dem and change Dem and change d h d h from ESS from ESS from ESS from ESS
Demand change Demand change g (residential sector) (residential sector) 2050/ 2005 Warm Warm 1 40 1.40 Cool 1.79 H t Hot 3.60 3 60 water Cook 1.72 Lighting 2.45 Frige 2.75 others 2.74 Unit Mtoe Unit: Mtoe
Demand change Demand change Demand change Demand change ( ( (transportation- (transportation p p -p sector) p sector) p p ) ) 2050/ 2005 PPV_S 5.51 PPV_M 5.50 PPV_L 5.00 CPV 7.60 BUS 8.00 TRN 3.82 SHP 7.71 AIR 20.00 Unit: Mtoe
Demand change Demand change Demand change Demand change (transportation (transportation-f sector) (transportation (transportation f sector) f sector) f sector) 2050/ 2005 FV_M 10.11 FV_L 10.11 TRN TRN 5 22 5.22 SHP 8.00 AIR 59.58 Unit: Mtoe
Options Options Options Options
Building heating charge mechanism g g g Unable to adapt for adapt for existing buildings 20 years Accelerate Accelerate retirement of existing Cost of installing buildings Uncertainty of file meters and Reluctance of demand demand infrastructure developers to do modification for this for new Improvement 10 years existing buildings buildings of energy management t Government Regulation and system subsidy and public laws; funding punishment and reward reward High capital High capital Lack of capita cost Difficult to expand in 5 years sources short time Government CDM, C , financial a c a Demonstration electricity fee, support or project redistribution raise money of heating fee from market
Green buildings and energy saving buildings and energy saving buildings Few involvement of all stakeholders Lack of knowledge in 20 years both supply and demand side Integrated approach Unable to implement p No technology No technology in short time or lack of Training of technology stakeholders, Reluctance of such as stakeholders such designers, d i as developers developers, Demonstratio consumers, etc. n project Incentive from Cooperation government government with ith Lack of funding developed countries Lack involvement of Lack of enough company market signal market signal G Government 10 years support, capacity building by funding Incentive from regulations and from developed government commands, tax countries
F Fuel tax l t Conflict of revenue Higher price of distribution from fee gasoline collection or tax Loss for some Loss for some revenue 10 years special transportation type, e.g. yp g agriculture Coordination of different departments, e.g. Reduce the fixed fee Subsidy for y tax vs. ta s for vehicles for vehicles specific sectors transportation department; central and local Institutional tax government g rearrangement rearrangement 5 years Raising tax in end point
Hybrid car High price Government G t Public 15 years subsidy in acceptance initial phases; Improving Difficult for R&D R&D expansion in short time Low investment Increase Awareness raising of Chinese of enterprises on p gasoline gasoline Government R&D price demonstration 5 years Lack of money to Incentive from cover the cost of Unwillingness from governments capacity buildings capacity buildings and d government officials international cooperation Support from developed Regulations on countries countries government vehicles t hi l
Fuel cell car Resources Technology Lack of High cost for maturity infrastructure hydrogen RE RE power, nuclear l power 50 years R&D and R&D Input and Construction of technology technology gy infrastructure infrastructure learning learning Cost transfer competitiveness Lack of money Late player and Lack of money weak basis weak basis RPS, incentive for 20 years RE Government input International Government cooperation; cooperation; input CDM
Result Result l l R R
Typical situation Typical situation Typical situation Typical situation from Chinese perspective from Chinese perspective • Institutional change need time • Culture difference • Command and control methods vs • Command and control methods vs. market-based instruments • Obligatory vs. voluntary
Back casting m odel Back casting m odel g Options definition Options definition
Building heating charge g g g m echanism • parameter set Building warm Demand change Demand change -20 20 Efficiency Fuel consumption change + 5(gas) by fuel shift Implement Implement 30 years 30 years U it Mt Unit: Mtoe
Green buildings g and energy saving buildings • parameter set Green building Energy saving building warm cool warm cool Demand -18 -1 -0.23 -1.36 change Efficiency 50% 50% 50% 50% Implement 35years 35years 35years 35years U it Mt Unit: Mtoe
Fuel tax-p • parameter set PPV-S PPV-M PPV-L CPV Demand -30 -2 -25 -30 change Effi i Efficiency Implement 35years 35years 40years 40years Unit: Mtoe
Hybrid car-p • parameter set PPV-L Demand change Demand change Efficiency Efficiency 100% 100% Fuel consumption change -5(oil) by fuel shift y Implement 40years U it Mt Unit: Mtoe
F Fuel cell car-p l ll • parameter set PPV-S CPV Demand change Efficiency Fuel consumption -20(oil) -30(oil) change by fuel shift I Implement l t 20 20years 20 20years U it Mt Unit: Mtoe
Results and discussion Results and discussion Results and discussion Results and discussion
Results Results – – option option penetraion p penetraion p
Results Results – CO2 emission Results Results CO2 emission CO2 emission CO2 emission
Discussion Discussion Discussion Discussion • Setup of options – Barrier 1: Different sectors and fuels: too complex and easy to be confused – Options: flexibility for fuel and sector selection for one option – Barrier 2: Bugs, difficult to judge the reasonability of results b l f l – Options: update the program, which need every person’s feedback ’ f db k
2015 2015 Strange Strange Change of Change of Change of Change of result result 2020 2025 2025
Di Di Discussion Discussion i i • Options: How to consider the pre-request options? – Model problem – How to do for the options with less carbon reduction but How to do for the options with less carbon reduction but investment collection which is also crucial • Uncertainties: – Time consuming – Assumption: too much, especially for cost – Linkage with other model: how to introduce? – Units: keep consistent – Effects: option do not take effect as assumed Effects: option do not take effect as assumed – Trend: linearly or other?
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