Japan Scenario for LCS Japan Scenario for LCS Kyoto University - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM-TWS 31 Oct 2008 @NIES Japan Scenario for LCS Japan Scenario for LCS Kyoto University Kyoto University Tomoaki YURA Kohsuke YOSHIMOTO

Contents 1 1. Background Background 2. Scenario development 3. Results of ESS 4. Policy implementation y p � Low carbon working style (teleworking) � Green and door to door transportation p � Smart life by house sharing 5. Conclusion 5. Conclusion 2

Background � Now, Japan is already aging society. In 2050 Japan is completely aged society In 2050, Japan is completely aged society. � � Aged society has several problems Aged society has several problems. � Lack of labor force � Elderly people need door to door transportation. � Elderly people tend to live alone. No. of single-person household will increase. � Consider environmental-balanced aged society in order to create LCS � Aim to create harmonious LCS with aged society 3

4 Population Pyramid by Age & Sex in 2000 Source: http://www.ipss.go.jp/

5 Population Pyramid by Age & Sex in 2050 Source: http://www.ipss.go.jp/

Background � Now, Japan is already aging society. In 2050 Japan is completely aged society In 2050, Japan is completely aged society. � � Aged society has several problems Aged society has several problems. � Lack of labor force � Elderly people need door to door transportation. � Elderly people tend to live alone. No. of single-person household will increase. � Consider environmental-balanced aged society in order to create LCS � Aim to create harmonious LCS with aged society 6

Scenario � Our scenario is based on Japan B scenario. � In addition, we identify three countermeasures which are also beneficial for aged society. � Low carbon working style (teleworking) � Green and door to door passenger transportation � Smart living by house sharing � We also assume to implement nuclear power generation compare to Japan B scenario. generation compare to Japan B scenario. 7

Scenario quantification � Low carbon working style (teleworking) 30% decrease of passenger transportation service 30% decrease of passenger transportation service demand � Green and door to door passenger transportation � G d d t d t t ti 20% private vehicles’ service demand converts to public transportation � Smart living by house sharing g y g 25% decrease of service demand in residential sector � Nuclear power generation � Nuclear power generation 15% increase of Share of nuclear power generation 8

[Results 1] CO 2 emission by sector - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 76% reduction 20 0 2050_KU Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg. Other 9

[Results 2-a] Factor analysis (Passenger transportation) (P t t ti ) tal /E C' C/C E/D D To C'/ D 0% -9% 9% -9% 9% -20% -40% 40% vs 2000's -39% -40% -60% v -80% -100% 100% -97% -120% 2050_KU 10

[Results 2-b] Factor analysis (Residential) (Residential) otal /E C' C/C D E/D C'/ To D 0% -4% -10% -20% -19% -24% -30% vs 2000's -40% -50% -46% v -60% 60% -70% -80% 80% -90% -92% -100% 2050_KU 11

Low carbon working style (teleworking) Dissemination of low Dissemination of low carbon working style (teleworking) High initial cost to Not enough technology introduce teleworking introduce teleworking level to disseminate level to disseminate Incentives to Promotion of teleworking g improvement of the improvement of the technology level of Lack of information of environmental teleworking system advantage of teleworking Organizing workshops about Lack of assistance to teleworking LCA research of teleworking system research Lack of comprehensive & information Lack of comprehensive & information Provide financial & social assistance to teleworking system Promotion of LCA researches about researchers teleworking Lack of cooperation for LCA research of teleworking research of teleworking Provide financial & social assistance to LCA researchers 12

Low carbon working style (teleworking) (teleworking) Barriers Barriers Future objectives Future objectives 5yr Lack of Low carbon working Provide financial & social assistance cooperation for p style (teleworking) to LCA researchers research 5yr Lack of comprehensive comprehensive Promotion of LCA researches Promotion of LCA researches and correct about teleworking information Reduce 30 % passenger transport passenger transport 2yr 2yr L Lack of k f demand information of Organizing workshops about environmental LCA research of teleworking advantage of ICT working style ki t l 10yr High initial cost Incentives to teleworking 20yr 20yr Not enough Promotion of technology level improvement of the to disseminate 10yr technology level of technology level of Dissemination of low carbon Di i ti f l b teleworking working style (teleworking) 13 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Action (green and door to door passenger transportation) On demand Advertising community bus Difficulty of door to door and workshop p transportation transportation lack of Knowledge or information Modal shift in about modal shift passengers to public passengers to public Developing D l i transportation ODCB ICT system Lack of infrastructure Lack of infrastructure No information Infrastructure Lack of money of demand development p Subsidy or public Research about investment Estimation of passengers volume 14

Gantt chart ( green and door to door passenger transportation ) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2008 Modal shift in passengers to public transportation (10 years) Infrastructure development On demand community bus (10 years) Developing ICT system Subsidy or public investment Estimation of passengers volume Advertising and workshop 15

Action (smart living by house sharing) Recruit members who want to share house share house Subsidies for collective Lack of money houses build and renovate build and renovate Change the Ch th to collective working style houses invasion of privacy smart living by house sharing g Lack of Information Lack of advantage Advertising and Advertising and Give incentives Give incentives workshop about for 3 generation house sharing family 16

Gantt chart (smart living by house sharing) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2008 Smart living by house sharing(30 years) Change the working style Give incentive for 3 generation family build and renovate to collective build and renovate to collective houses Subsidies for collective house Recruit members who want to share house Advertising and workshop about house sharing 17

Reduction of energy demand 20 18 Mtoe) 16 16 demand (M 14 12 of energy d 10 8 Reduction 6 4 2 2 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Green and door to door passenger transportation Low carbon working style (teleworking) Low carbon working style (teleworking) Smart living by house sharing 18

conclusions l i � We developed the LCS scenario which is also beneficial for aged society also beneficial for aged society. � The scenario shows 76% emission reduction vision. i i � We proposed three actions by using back casting. 19

Our opinions about BCM � Options � Options � Too many options If we assume modal shift we have to make options of If we assume modal shift, we have to make options of each service decrease and increase. � Assumption � Assumption � Energy based set up If we assume modal shift we want to set up by If we assume modal shift, we want to set up by conversion change rate not by energy demand change. 20

21 Thank you!!