Japan Low -Carbon Society Scenarios Study - Feasibility of 70% CO2 emissions reductions tow ards 2050 - 20 0 1 If we cannot go to LCS 1. If we cannot go to LCS,… 2. LCS offers higher QOL with less energy demand and lower-carbon energy supply 3. LCS needs good design, early action, and innovations l ti d i ti Junichi Fujino Junichi Fujino (fuji@nies.go.jp) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) 1 AIM Training Workshop, Tsukuba, Oct 27, 2008
http://2050.nies.go.jp CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan Surface Air Temperature Change (1900=0 o C) ) 2 ( g p
http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/abespeech/2007/05/24speech_e.html 3
7 Current per capita CO 2 emissions 6 /cap) $200/t-C scenario and Target g US ons (t-C/ 5 US: delay for tech development, Canada global warming business emissio 4 EU: Initiatives toward LCS Japan: Need long-term vision UK Germany y er capita 3 METI, Japan 2030 scenario Developing countries: earlier g guidance toward LCS is key y CO 2 pe 2 2 France F Japan 2050 scenario World 1 1 Target for China IA2 Low Carbon Society IB1 India 0 0 Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event 4 Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005
How fast we need to reduce GHG emissions P Per capita it E Energy C Carbon b Intensity Intensity activity Total amount Activity Activity Energy Energy CO CO 2 CO 2 emissions ＝ Pop × Pop × × Activity Energy 60-80% reductions 60 80% reductions differe Chan rat int To Kaya identity Kaya identity nge otal ential e egral Change rate ＝ speed Change rate ＝ speed Energy CO 2 Activity CO 2 emission Pop ＋ ＋ ＋ ＝ Pop p Activity y Energy gy Change rate Change rate Change rate Change rate change rate change rate change rate -2~3%/year 2~3%/year -0.5%/year 1.5%/year 0 5%/year 1 5%/year X%/year X%/year Y%/year Y%/year 5 1%/year -3~4%/year The case of Japan LCS
Required improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity to achieve LCS carbon and energy intensity to achieve LCS Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity (w/o CCS) C Carbon Intensity (CCS only) b I t it (CCS l ) Historical trend Japan Scenario A Japan Japan ScenarioB 60-80% U.K. reductions towards 2050 France France Germany 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity (%/y) Keep double speed to improve carbon and energy intensity compared as that of the historical record! 6
Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 [FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] [FY2004 2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan Advisory board ： d b d advice to project Techno-Socio Innovation study Next generation vehicles Green buildings Eco awareness Efficient transportation system Self-sustained city Effective communication Advanced logistics Advanced logistics Decentralized services Decentralized services Dematerialization Dematerialization Transportation Urban structure IT-society Reduction system Target study Development of socio- ion BaU scenario BaU scenario economic scenarios, economic scenarios E Energy saving i Tech. innovation h GHG emissi Valid evaluating counter- 5 EE improvement measures with social- 3 Structure change economic-technology 1 models New energy Effective Equity -1 Life-style change h GHG reduction target Integration Suitable （ eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level ） Intervention Evaluate feasibility of Team scenario GHG reduction target 000 020 050 990 010 20 20 20 20 19 Middle-term Loge-term Target year Target year 5 teams 60 Researchers 60 Researchers Propose options of long-term global warming policy 7
Japan LCS (Low-Carbon Society) (FY2004-2008) Japan LCS (Low Carbon Society) (FY2004 2008) Research Project supported by 8 Global Environmental Research Fund, MOEJ
Scenario Approach to Develop Japan Low -Carbon Society (LCS) Japan Low Carbon Society (LCS) Depicting Ch Checking ki socio- potentials economic Estimating for energy visions Exploring energy gy supply supply in 2050 innovations service Quantifying for energy demands Step1 energy demands Step5 p demand d d and energy Step2 and supply supplies to estimate Step3 Step3 CO 2 CO emissions Step4 Achieving energy- g gy related CO 2 9 emissions target
Visions Visions we prepared two different we prepared two different we prepared two different we prepared two different but likely future societies for Japan but likely future societies for Japan Vision A Vision A Vision B Vision B Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community Technology breakthrough Self-sufficient Centralized production Produce locally, consume /recycle locally Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values 2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth Akemi Imagawa 10
We prepared models to quantify the LCSs We prepared models to quantify the LCSs We prepared models to quantify the LCSs We prepared models to quantify the LCSs Element models; Element models; 1) Snapshot models; Inter-sector and Macro Economic model Energy technology bottom-up models Energy supply model Transportation demand model 2) Transition models; Population and household model P l ti d h h ld d l Building dynamics model Integration tool; Integration tool; Snapshot Integration Tool (SSI) 11 11
Population and Household Model Population and Household Model • Drastic change is projected in Japan’s population structure by 2050. g p j p p p y Downturn in birthrate, depopulation and aging will continue until 2050, and they affect greatly the future vision. • A cohort component model for population, a household headship rate model for household types, with spatial resolution of provinces, land-use types l l l l and climate zones and five family types was developed, and is used to analyze effects of depopulation and changes in family composition on the realization of LCS. li ti f LCS Province-wise Total population Adjustment Population (Period T-1) (Period T-1) Province-wise Life table [Sex, Age] [Sex, Age] life table [Sex Age] [Sex, Age] Consistency Consistency [S [Sex, Age] A ] Adjustment Fertility rate Province-wise [Age] fertility rate Consistency [Age] International Net migration Net-migration Adjustment j (Japanese) Province-wise net-migration Province-wise Total population Consistency International [Sex, Age] Population (Period T) net-migration (Period T) [Sex, Age] (Outsider) [Sex, Age] Province-wise headship rate [Sex, Age, Family] [Sex Age Family] Province-wise climatic division Headship rate share [Sex, Age, Family] Province-wise landuse Cls. share share T t l Total number of b f L Landuse Cls.-wise d Cl i Climatic zone Cli ti Province-wise P i i : Data flow Household Population -wise household household : Exogenous variable (Period T) (Period T) (Period T) (Period T) : Endogenous variable [Family-wise] [Sex, Age] [ Family] [Family] Flowchart of PHM 12 12
Population 2000年 2050年 127billion scenario A: 94bil scenarioB:100bil 85- 85- 80-84 80-84 75-79 75-79 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60 64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45 49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30 34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 A 男 15-19 10-14 B 男 10-14 5-9 A 女 5-9 B 女 0-4 0-4 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 女 （ 千 人 ） 男 （ 千 人 ） 女 （ 千 人 ） 男 （ 千 人 ） 13
Projection Japan population and households in Projection Japan population and households in scenario A scenario A i i 140 120 age 100% %) usehold (% 80- 100 housand) llion) 80% Others 60-79 80 40-59 Parent- 60% pulation (Th pe of hou Child Children (Mi 60 20-39 One-Person 0-19 40% 40 Couple-Only Typ Pop 20 20% Couple- Children 0 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 200 200 201 201 202 202 203 203 204 204 205 year 2000 2050 A B A B Population (million) 126.9 94.5 100.3 Aged population ratio (%) 17.4 53.7 35.8 Average number of household 2.71 2.19 2.38 Single-person households (%) 27.6 42.6 35.1 14 14
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