Khon Kaen Province: On the Way to Low Carbon Society Penwadee Cheewapongphan Sirintornthep Towprayoon Savitri Garivait AIM Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan 1 13-14 December 2013
Objective To develop low carbon scenarios for Khon Kaen province to support its vision of Low Carbon Society Model for the Greater Mekong Sub- region (GMS) 2
Scope and Scope and What to do?.... Methodology Framework/Survey - Energy Study Boundary - Waste - LULUCF Data collection Implementation Review Estimate base year emission Yr 2005 Action plan CM development Yr 2030, 2050 Projection to targets Snap shot of target years 3 ( Stakeholder Workshop & Site Visit)
Khon Kaen Province (KK-province) Khon Kaen Location Latitudes 15º21’5” N; Longitudes 101º 44’45” E Total Land 10,885.99 km 2 (Forest land 2,074 km 2 ) Climate SW monsoon with very dry zones Mean Annual Temperature: 21-38ºC Khon Kaen Province Average Annual Precipitation 1,303 mm (131 days) Population (2010): 1,767,601 inh. GPP (2009) 145,372 Million THB 4
Overall Statistics of KK province – in 2007 Khon Kaen Thailand Khon Kaen/ unit Province Thailand (%) Population PP 1,752,414 66,041,000 2.7% 1.5% 12 , 643 848 , 688 GPP-GDP-Agriculture Million ฿ 1.2% 101 , 282 8,189,087 GPP-GDP-Non Agriculture Million ฿ 1.5% 955.78 64,886 Energy Consumption ktoe km 2 Total Area 10 , 886 513 , 115 2.1% km 2 Forest Area 1 , 406.98 183,446 0.8% km 2 Agriculture Area 7 , 562.94 288,545 2.6% 5
Methodology Concept of GHG emissions estimation Emission = Activity data × Emission factor ExSS for Energy Consumption Activities ExSS for Waste Management Activities • Commuting OD • Labor participation ratio • Export • Government expenditure • Demographic composition • Import ratio • Labor productivity Number of • Average number of family occupants workers Waste generation Labor Module Labor Share of waste demand management options Average Wage Macro-economy and Population and Household Income working time Industry Module Number Module Private Time-use and Population consumption Output Incinerated waste Disposed waste Recycled waste Consumption Module Number of • Breakdown of household consumption Organic carbon Fossil carbon content • Population distribution content • Floor area per Commercial Transport Module • Trip per parson Decay parameters output • Transport distance Building Module • Modal share CO 2 emission Floor area of Organic carbon Passenger and freight commercial buildings transport demand stock CH 4 generation CH 4 recovery rate Energy demand Energy Demand & GHG GHG emissions Emissions Module CH 4 emission Recovered CH 4 • Energy service demand generation unit Main endogenous Exogenous variables and • Energy efficiency Module parameters variables • Fuel share • Emission factor Flow of endogenous variables Input 6
Data Collection Data Source Demographic & Economic - Number of KK-population National Statistical Office (NSO) - Input-Output Table (I-O) National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) - Gross KK-Provincial Product National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) Energy-Consumption Activities - Electricity Consumption Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) - Oil Consumption Department of Energy Business - Transport Behavior Office of Transport Policy (Khon Kaen master plan) - Building Floor Area Land Development Department (LDD) 7 - Number of Industry Department of Industrial Work
Data Collection Data Source Waste Management Activities - Waste Generation Rate Regional Environmental Office 10 (REO 10) - Waste Collection Efficiency Regional Environmental Office 10 (REO 10) - Waste Composition Regional Environmental Office 10 (REO 10) - Waste Recycle Rate Regional Environmental Office 10 (REO 10) LULUCF Activities - Number of Livestocks Office of Agricultural Economic (OAE) - Manure Management System IPCC GHG 2006 - Crop Land Office of Agricultural Economic (OAE) - Forest Land Land Development Department (LDD) 8 - Amount of Fertilization Office of Agricultural Economic (OAE)
GHG Emission Projection - Population a) Population Forecast 2,000,000 Forecast 2013-2050 1,950,000 1999-2012 1999-2012 Interpolation (Time series )~+1 % annually 1,900,000 NSO NSO Population ( pp ) 1,850,000 1,800,000 1,750,000 1,700,000 1,650,000 1,600,000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 9
GHG Emission Projection - GPP b) GPP Forecast 600,000 2011-2050 500,000 Interpolation (based on Department of Public Works 2000-2010 2000-2010 2000 2010 and Town and Country Planning ) : NESDB NESDB NESDB GPP (Million Baht ) 400,000 primary ~+2.5 % annually, secondary & tertiary ~+5.0 % annually 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 primary secondary tertiary 10
(a) Situation of GHG Emissions and Removal in KK-province 4,000 37 38 36 33 Emission and Removal of GHG 28 3,500 18 547 593 629 (1,000 tons CO2-e) การใช้ประโยชน์ที่ดิน 615 3,000 575 539 ( LULUCF) 2,500 2,000 ขยะของเสีย ( Waste) 3,043 2,937 1,500 2,831 2,725 2,619 2,483 1,000 เกษตร ( Agriculture) 500 - -669 -661 -673 -678 -683 -686 พลังงาน ( Energy) -500 -1,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ป ี (Year) 11
(a) Situation of GHG Emissions and Removal in KK-province 8,000 Emission and removal of GHG 7,000 (1,000 tons CO2-e) 6,000 7,473 5,000 2.8 ton CO2-e 5,203 4,000 per capita 2.8 ton CO2-e per capita 3,000 2,942 2,372 2,000 2,432 GHG Emissions 1.7 ton CO2-e per capita 1,000 - -1,000 GHG Removal -2,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 พลังงาน ( Energy) ขยะของเสีย ( Waste) เกษตร ( Agriculture) 12 การใช้ประโยชน์ที่ดิน ( LULUCF) ผลรวมสุทธิ CO2-e (Net CO2-e)
(a) Situation of GHG Emissions and Removal in KK-province 10 yr ไนโตรเจนจากชีวมวลการเกษตร ( N from crop residues) 11 28 2030 yr การใส่ปุ ๋ ยไนโตเจน ( N Fertilizer) 52 56 การเผาชีวมวล ( Biomass open burning) 2050 63 5 การเพาะปลูกข้าว ( rice cultivation) 6 62 การจัดการมูลสัตว์ ( manure management) 89 480 ปศุสัตว์ ( enteric fermentation) 712 44 การจัดการขยะ ( waste management) 47 2,292 ขนส่ง ( transportation) 2,972 1,248 โรงงานอุตสาหกรรม ( industrial) 1,901 978 ธุรกิจ ( commercial) 1,579 604 ที่พักอาศัย ( residential) 767 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 GHG emissions ( 1,000 tons CO2-e) 13 Emission of GHG (1,000 tons CO2-e)
KK – LCS Related Strategies & Activities 4 strategies of KK related on LCC Development Strategy 1: Green City Strategy 2: Clean City Strategy 3: City of Energy Care Strategy 4: Living Sustainable City 14
KK – LCS Related Strategies & Activities Increasing Green Space Strategy 1: Green City Target Activities in Khon Kaen province • To plant big tree in 0.5 km 2 area GHG emission • To breed tree in school by student mitigation analysis • To launch green campaign • To give 9 trees to the newborn baby • To support the backyard garden in the house • To support the free tree to the community • Etc. Assumption • Year 2015: Planting and continuous maintenance of big trees in 50% of degraded forest land (~100 km 2 ) • Year 2030: Planting & Conservation: Planting and continuous maintenance of big trees in 100% of degraded forest land (~ 200 km 2 ) • Year 2030-2050: Planting & Conservation: Conservative all of forest land 15
KK – LCS Related Strategies & Activities To become a zero waste Strategy 2: Clean City Target land Activities in Khon Kaen province • To support using e-mail instead of paper GHG emission • To use paper-glass instead of plastic-glass for visitor mitigation analysis • To use own-glass for the officer • To educate waste separation for the officer • To provide tank separation waste • To compete the amount of waste reduction in each department in the office • To create the objects from the waste Assumption • Etc. • Year 2015 (Launch of Recycling campaign): increasing the recycling rate to 15% of generated waste • Year 2030 Recycling: increasing the recycling rate to 30% of generated waste • Year 2050 Recycling: Keeping the recycling rate at 30% of generated waste 16
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