12 February 2009 Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 Project Symposium Norichika KANIE Graduate School of Decision Science and Technology Tokyo Institute of Technology kanie@valdes.titech.ac.jp 1
Research Questions for the Team Q1. What level is required for the long-term target to avoid dangerous climate change? Q2. What level of target is required for Japan? 2
Answer In order to limit the negative impact of climate change… 60 ％ 70 ％ 80 ％ 90 ％ It is safer to prepare the situation where Japan should reduce emissions by at least 60 ％ to about 90 ％ in 2050 (from ‘90 level) Taking uncertainty also into account. 3
How much to reduce? Step 1: How much GHGs have to be reduced at global level? � Co-relations between GHG stabilization level and impact level (level of temperature increase) is calculated Step 2: Emission reduction differentiation in 2050 based on the above calculation result ⇒ Emission reduction to be required for Japan 4
Step 1 starts with UNFCCC ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system . Such a level should be achieved within a time ‐ frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. ARTICLE 3. 3. The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. ARTICLE 4: COMMITMENTS All Parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, shall… 5
Step 1 starts with UNFCCC ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system . Such a level should be achieved within a time ‐ frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. Avoiding dangerous ARTICLE 3. 3. The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, climate change prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. ARTICLE 4: COMMITMENTS All Parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, shall… 6
For avoiding “dangerous” impact of climate change, we need to keep temperature increase below 2 ℃ ＩＰＣＣ -TAR Extremely dangerous Severe and irreversible impacts such as THC shutdown, collapse of Greenland Ice sheet and West Antarctic Ice sheet Dangerous Impacts on various sectors including water resources, agriculture, forestry and human health in many regions around the world. Impacts on vulnerable ecosystems such as vegetation shift and breech of coral leaf
Potential impacts by temperature increase from pre-industrial level ( Δ T ℃ ) ○ Δ T ≦ 1 ℃： I mpacts to vulnerable ecosystems are likely to occur even with Δ T as much as 1 ℃ . Therefore, if we aim at avoiding the potential impacts to the vulnerable ecosystems, Δ T needs to be kept below 1 ℃ . On the other hand, considering the temperature increase by about 0.6 ℃ in the 20 th century and the projected changes in population and economic activity in the 21 st century, it is prohibitively difficult to keep Δ T less than 1 ℃ . ○ Δ T ≦２℃： With Δ T by 2 – 3 ℃ , it is indicated that adverse impact will emerge globally. Therefore, for proactively preventing global-scale adverse impact from occurring, it is necessary to keep Δ T less than 2 ℃ . Furthermore, some studies suggest steep increases in adverse impacts with Δ T by about 2 ℃ . From the point of view of effectively preventing wide spread of adverse impacts, it makes sense to choose 2 ℃ as upper limit of tolerable Δ T . ○３℃＜ Δ T ： According to several scientific evidences, with Δ T larger than 3 ℃ , threshold to keep stability of climate system is crossed over and probability of singular events such as THC shutdown will increase. Since exceeding this level of Δ T increases the risk of severe and irreversible adverse impacts globally, we must avoid it definitely. It should be noted, however, that research results regarding levels needed for keeping climate system stability are limited, and therefore more science knowledge development is in demand. Based on the scientific knowledge above, the idea of keeping Δ T below 2 ℃ can be a starting point of discussion about long-term stabilization target. 8
Emission path by AIM/Impact [Policy] 30 25 /yr) 20 tC 4 Temperature increase (1990=0.6) 2eq (G 3.5 15 3 2.5 O 10 C 2 1.5 1 5 0.5 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year CS=1.7 CS=2.0 CS=2.5 Year CS=2.6 CS=3.0 CS=2.6&475ppm CS=2.6&550ppm CS=2.6&650ppm 系列 1 BaU CS=1.7 CS=2.0 CS=2.5 CS=2.6 CS=3.0 CS=2.6&475ppm CS=2.6&500ppm CS=2.6&550ppm CS=2.6&650ppm BaU 30 1000 900 25 800 CO2eq concentration CO2eq_KP (GtC/yr) 700 20 600 500 15 400 10 300 200 5 100 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Year CS=1.7 CS=2.0 CS=2.5 CS=1.7 CS=2.0 CS=2.5 CS=2.6 CS=3.0 CS=2.6&475ppm CS=2.6 CS=3.0 CS=2.6&475ppm CS=2.6&550ppm CS=2.6&650ppm CS=2.6&500ppm CS=2.6&550ppm CS=2.6&650ppm CS=2.6&500ppm BaU BaU
international political change according to ideological stances Cosmopolitanism Cosmopolitanism Global marketplace World government Globalism International Communitarianism cooperation /Individualism Rationalism Dispersal of power Balance of power ／ Clash of civilizations Closed regional blocs Localism Nationalism
Cosmopolitanism Cosmopolitanism Economy First Multilateral Cooperation Scenario Scenario Close to the idea of Intensity Close to the idea of Contraction and target Convergence ・ intensity improve at the same ・ Convergence year 2050, 2070, degree throughout ・ intensity converge in 2070 or 2100 2100 6 patterns of differentiation • Open Regionalism • liberal market • Equity per person • Intensity target if there is any • Common but differentiated responsibility • Industry or sectoral reduction if there is no cap • environment first • Economic efficiency first. Reduce cost effectively. • Equal effort • Global tax, etc. • All participation principle, the rest is market principle. Rationalism Communitarianism Nationalism /Individualism
Furthermore… Taking uncertainty into account Ultimate goal Sensitivity Global Differentiation 2 ℃ 1.5 C&C 2050 2.2 ℃ 1.7 C&C 2070 2.6 ℃ 2.0 C&C 2100 2.5 Improve GHG/GDP GHG/GDP converge 2070 2.6 GHG/GDP converge 2100 3.0
Emission reduction of Japan 2050: range of required reduction for 2 ℃ target 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 Mt-CO2eq 18 ％～ 44 ％ reduction 800 60 ％～ 80 ％ reduction 600 400 Cases for climate sensitivity 200 3 ℃・・・ 82 ％ to 93 ％ reduction required 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Invitation to "Cool Earth 50“ May 24, 2007 In order to achieve the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to stabilize the level of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, we must curb the global greenhouse gas emissions to the same level as the capacity of natural sinks. Bearing this in mind, I propose setting a long-term target of cutting global emissions by half from the current level by 2050 as a common goal for the entire world. Considering the fact that current global emissions are more than double the capacity of natural sinks, which means that gas concentrations in the atmosphere will only increase, it is imperative that we first share this goal internationally.
Emission path for 50% reduction in 2050 Global Environment , vol12, No.2 Case1,2 from ‘90 level, Case3,4 from 2000 level, Case5,6 from 2004 level 15
Required GHG emission reduction and its path for Japan in case of halving GHG emissions (Kyoto six gases) in 2050 Required GHG emission reduction for major emitters (from 1990 level) C&C 2050 Japan USA Russia AI China India Brazil R of Korea EU Case1 （ 2.2 ℃） 85% 88% 83% 94% 88% 35% -89% 62% 73% Case2 （ 2.3 ℃） 85% 88% 83% 94% 88% 35% -91% 61% 73% Case3 （ 2.2 ℃） 83% 86% 80% 93% 86% 26% -118% 56% 69% Case4 （ 2.4 ℃） 83% 86% 80% 93% 86% 26% -118% 56% 69% 16 Case5 （ 2.3 ℃） 81% 85% 78% 92% 85% 19% -137% 52% 66% Case6 （ 2.6 ℃） 81% 85% 78% 92% 85% 19% -137% 52% 66%
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