The 3rd Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project "Roadmap to Low-Carbon World'' 13th-15th February, 2008,Hotel Metropolitan Edmont, Iidabashi, Tokyo Low carbon society in contrast to a society with mass consumption of energy and resources (Updated version) Yuichi Moriguchi Team Leader, Transport Subproject, JLCS2050 Director, Research Centre for Material Cycles and Waste Management, NIES Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo Chair, OECD/EPOC/WG on Environmental Information and Outlooks Inaugural member, International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management 1
Contents 1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO 2 2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption 3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits 4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO 2 payback time 5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society) 2
Share of CO 2 emissions by sector in Japan Industrial Processes Other Waste 4% 3% 0% Commercial & Residential Others Energy 5% 8% Industries 32% Railway Manufacturing Transport Industries and Maritime 19% Construction 29% Aviation Total CO 2 emissions Motor 2005 vehicle 3
Trends of GDP and CO 2 emissions by sector Trends of GDP and CO 2 emissions by sector GDP E m is s io n In de x de n o m in ate d by 1 9 7 3 le ve l Total 200 GDP Energy Industory Industrial Commercial & Residential 150 Transport 100 50 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 4
Contents 1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO 2 2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption 3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits 4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO 2 payback time 5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society) 5
Japanese CO 2 emissions structure from the viewpoint of final demand (1975-2000) by I-O analysis 1400 Other exports Change of the sector classification Electric Machinery Transport machinery Exports Transport 1200 Iron&Steel Stock change Other private capital Fixed 1000 Cap. CO 2 emissions (Mt-CO 2 /y) Machinery (pri.) Construction Other public capital (pub.) Construction 800 Other government consumption Gov. Cons Education, medical & welfare service . Government Service 600 Other household expenditure Transport Retail trade 400 House. Education, medical & welfare service Cons. Service Food Electricity consumption 200 Fuel consumption Non Household Expenditure 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 6
Relationship between CO 2 intensities and expenditures of households in Japan K. Nansai and Y. Moriguchi (2007), NIES, Japan 450 Petroleum and coal products (exc. gasoline) CO 2 emissions per unit expenditure (kg-CO 2 /10000 yen) 400 <Note> Gasoline 1. Y-axis value is based on the consumers' price basis. 350 2. The value includes emissions relating to imports, assuming they Mains gas have the same emissions as the domestic products. 3. The value includes not only emissions directly from a household 300 but also ones for supplying goods and services that the household Electricity purchases. 250 Transportation 200 3.2% 11.9% 13.2% 3.4% Transportation machinery Water and sewerage 12.0% 2.8% 150 2.6% Comunication and broadcast Electrical machinery 15.1% 0.9% 6.4% 1.2% 100 9.7% 14.1% Education, medical care and welfare Fablic prod. 3.4% 50 Foods Services Others 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Annual average expenditure at a household in Japan (10000 yen/year) 7
Contents 1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO 2 2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption 3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits 4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO 2 payback time 5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society) 8
Size of passenger cars had been getting larger and caused larger CO 2 emissions since tax reform in 1989 Number of car possesions (Million) CO 2 emission[Mt-CO 2 ] 60 140 Light passenger cars 120 50 Small passenger cars Gasoline light 100 passenger cars 40 Regular size passenger Gasoline -2,000cc 80 30 Diesel & rotary engine etc. 60 Gasoline 2,001cc- 20 40 10 20 0 0 1990 1995 2000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Tax system change: abolition of the commodity tax adoption of the consumption tax 9
Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20% each could account for over 70% reduction as total Demand management e.g. by information- (1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26 communication technology [transport-service per capita] Modal shift to reduce CO 2 EF Improve fuel economy per passenger-km or ton-km [Fuel consumption per vehicle-km] ⎛ ⎞ CO TransServ P km ( Tkm ) Vkm Fuel CO EF ∑ = × × ⎜ × × ⎟ 2 2 ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ⎠ capita capita TransServ Pkm Tkm Vkm Fuel ( ) Mode Improve load factor [vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)] Introduce low carbon energy Improve accessibility [CO 2 emission factor per fuel [passenger-km or ton-km consumption] per transport-service] 10
Estimated regional automotive CO 2 emissions 2.50 Tokyo Met. Nagoya Met. 2.00 Osaka Met. Other Areas 1.50 Freight vehicles 1.00 Passenger cars 0.50 0.00 [t/year] 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Accumulated population [million] CO2 per capita Each Area is categorized in 1. Major cities 2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above 3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above 4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above 5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million 6. Counties Passenger car emissions (t-CO2/capita) 11
Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Picture of EST1 (High tech.) Construction of H 2 Wind-generated Supplying Station Electricity Utilization of Biomass Energy More Energy Popularization of Efficient Mode FCEVs 12
Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Picture of EST2 (Mobility change) Increase in Car Shifting to Railways Occupancy Utilization of Telecommunication Tools Higher Loading Shifting to Bicycle Rate and Walking 13
Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Picture of EST3 (Combination) Utilization of Biomass Energy Shifting to Bicycle and Walking More Energy Shifting to Efficient Mode Railways Utilization of Telecommunication Tools Popularization of Wind-generated FCEVs Electricity 14
Contents 1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO 2 2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption 3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits 4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO 2 payback time 5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society) 15
Purchasing decision of consumer durables • Consumer durables such as cars, air conditioners, refrigerators, TV’s and other electric equipment have significant impact on household energy consumption. • Replacement to up-to-date efficient models is often encouraged, but we have to keep in mind that shorter lifetime of durables lead to excessive consumption of material resources and indirect energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. • Payback time in terms of cost, energy, and CO 2 should be carefully examined for typical consumer durables. • Reliable information with regard to cost payback time and CO 2 payback time of expensive mitigating technologies such as photovoltaic should be disseminated to consumers to guide their investment decision. 16
Cost payback time of Hybrid Vehicle 2000 Euros 200 Gasoline price（JPY/l） 175 1 Euro / l 150 125 3 years 100 5 years 7 years 75 10 years 50 0 200 400 600 800 Additional initial investment in 1,000JPY (10,000km/year, 11.7km/l for conventional 20.3km/l for HEV) 17
Contents 1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO 2 2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption 3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits 4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO 2 payback time 5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society) 18
Massive flow of materials Consumer products Infrastructure Wastes Resources as source of as sink of resources The global environment is finite residuals 19
Transition of socio-economic structure towards more sustainable consumption and production Sound material cycle Mass-production, society (SMCS) mass-consumption, mass-disposal society Recycling-based Cycle-oriented One-way Sound material-cycle Saving Reducing resources burdens 大量生産・大量消費・ 循環型社会 大量廃棄型社会 “Junkan” 20
Types of possible behavioral changes Direct, Short term, Individual • Day-to-day energy saving actions • Purchasing choice of daily necessaries • Transport modal choice • Purchasing choice of consumer durables to minimize lifecycle carbon emissions • Residence and workplace choices Indirect, Long term, Societal + Cultural aspect: e.g. Japanese spirit of “Mottainai” “Don’t waste what is valuable.” 21
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