New Activities of Emission Modeling New Activities of Emission - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

New Activities of Emission Modeling New Activities of Emission Modeling Integration of Climate Change Policy & Integration of Climate Change Policy & Solid Waste Treatment Policy Solid Waste Treatment Policy Toshihiko MASUI National Institute for Environmental Studies 6th AIM International Workshop NIES 27-28 March, 2001

Object of New Model Analysis Evaluation of effects of environmental policies for both global environmental problems (climate change, ...) and domestic environmental problems (solid waste, air pollutant, water pollutant, ...) on economic activities and material balance

Past & Present of This Analysis Activities on AIM Workshop • 1998 Analysis using dynamic optimization model (EJOR; 15 sectors & 11 wastes) • 1999 Introduction of environmental-economic linkage model Construction of recursive model end-use module (IGES; 32 sectors & 18 wastes) economic module material balance module Introduction of recursive economic model • 2000 and its preliminary results Preliminary Analysis on Policy (JSCC; 33sectors & 18 wastes) • 2001 Introduction of modification of economic ⇒ Future directions model and its analysis

Overview of Economic Model • Computable General Equilibrium Model • Recursive Dynamics • Pollutant Generation and Treatment – Pollutant is regarded as “ bads bads ” • Environmental Constraints: – CO2 Emissions – Final Disposal of Solid Wastes • 33 Sectors, 31 Commodities, and 18 Solid Waste

Model Flow (Sorry too Small!) Flow of goods Flow of goods see “commodities” in the model see “commodities” in the model Activity Activity see “sectors” in the model see “sectors” in the model PTG PTG PDM(U) PDM(U) PIM(U) PIM(U) PP(V,P) PP(V,P) PY(U) PY(U) PDM(U) PDM(U) PDM(U) PDM(U) PDM(U) PDM(U) PK PK PK PK EXD(U) EXD(U) PX(U) PX(U) PINV(U) PINV(U) PCAP PCAP PCAP PCAP PEX(U) PEX(U) INV(U) INV(U) CAPF CAPF PL PL PL PL ACT(V) ACT(V) PIWM PIWM PIM(U) PIM(U) Household PSI(IVP) PSI(IVP) POH POH UTL UTL PTG PTG PEK(P) PEK(P) production production PECP(P) PECP(P) PM(H,V) PM(H,V) ABR ABR House- House- PMWM PMWM PIM(I) PIM(I) PGI(U) PGI(U) PZ PZ hold hold PENE(V,”pro”) PENE(V,”pro”) PSI(IVP) PSI(IVP) INFR(IVP) INFR(IVP) PE(EN) PE(EN) PEV(P) PEV(P) PGW PGW MRPE(J,P) MRPE(J,P) PCARB PCARB PEV(P) PEV(P) PP(J,P) PP(J,P) PGS PGS discharge into env. discharge into env. PCON PCON ECPF1(P) ECPF1(P) PL PL PECP(P) PECP(P) MRPA(J,P) MRPA(J,P) PA(P) PA(P) PP(J,P) PP(J,P) PEK(P) PEK(P) PDM(U) PDM(U) RED(J,P) RED(J,P) self management self management PZ PZ PX(H) PX(H) PX(U) PX(U) PGI(U) PGI(U) ECPF ２ ECPF ２ pollutant pollutant GI(U) GI(U) (P) (P) self self PM(H,J) PM(H,J) PIM(U) PIM(U) PXE(EN) PXE(EN) management management Market PENE(J,P) PENE(J,P) Production Activities PDM(U) PDM(U) PX(I) PX(I) PK PK PIM(I) PIM(I) PC(I) PC(I) CON(I) CON(I) PCON PCON PL PL PDM(“mwm”) PDM(“mwm”) HOUSE HOUSE PENEH PENEH PEK(“sew”) PEK(“sew”) SWS(F) SWS(F) PDM(“sew”) PDM(“sew”) PP(“sew”,P) PP(“sew”,P) PS(F) PS(F) PP(J,F) PP(J,F) Integration of sewage sewage MRPS(J,F) MRPS(J,F) Including activities POH POH service service PDM(U) PDM(U) activity activity PDM(U) PDM(U) PM(H,”sew”) PM(H,”sew”) PIM(U) PIM(U) PENE(“sew”,”pro”) PENE(“sew”,”pro”) COH COH PS(F) PS(F) POH POH PECH(EN) PECH(EN) recycled commodities and for env. preservation PW(J,S) PW(J,S) PP(J,S) PP(J,S) MRPW(J,S) MRPW(J,S) PDM(H) PDM(H) PIM(H) PIM(H) PM(H,J) PM(H,J) ordinary commodities IOM(H,J) IOM(H,J) PX(H) PX(H) PK PK PL PL PDM(EN) PDM(EN) PE(EN) PE(EN) PCARB PCARB PX(H) PX(H) EAGG1(EN) EAGG1(EN) PENE(“iwm”,”pro”) PENE(“iwm”,”pro”) PECH(EN) PECH(EN) PENEH PENEH IWM(W,WMW) IWM(W,WMW) PY(U) PY(U) CEMH(EN) CEMH(EN) EAH EAH PE(EN) PE(EN) PP(“iwm”,P) PP(“iwm”,P) IWX(W) IWX(W) industrial industrial PIW(W,WMW) PIW(W,WMW) PWIX(W) PWIX(W) PWI(W) PWI(W) PW(J,”w_i”) PW(J,”w_i”) PIM(EN) PIM(EN) PE(EN) PE(EN) PM(H,”iwm”) PM(H,”iwm”) IWS(W,WMW) IWS(W,WMW) IWG(J) IWG(J) EAGG2(EN) EAGG2(EN) waste waste PE(EN) PE(EN) management management POH POH PENE(J,D) PENE(J,D) activity activity PEC(EN,J,D) PEC(EN,J,D) PXE(EN) PXE(EN) CEM(EN,J,D) CEM(EN,J,D) EAG(J,D) EAG(J,D) PEK(“w_i”) PEK(“w_i”) PCARB PCARB PXE(EN) PXE(EN) PE(EN) PE(EN) EAGG3(EN) EAGG3(EN) PZ PZ PWM(W) PWM(W) PDM(“mwm”) PDM(“mwm”) HWS HWS PK PK PGW PGW PWM(W) PWM(W) GWS GWS PL PL PX(H) PX(H) PENE(“mwm”,”pro”) PENE(“mwm”,”pro”) MWM(W,WMW) MWM(W,WMW) PY(U) PY(U) PS(F) PS(F) PDM(“sew”) PDM(“sew”) PP(“mwm”,P) PP(“mwm”,P) HSS HSS MWX(W) MWX(W) municipal municipal PMW(W,WMW) PMW(W,WMW) MWS(W,WMW) PWMX(W) MWS(W,WMW) PWMX(W) PWM(W) PWM(W) PW(J,”w_m”) PW(J,”w_m”) PM(H,”mwm”) PM(H,”mwm”) MWG(J) MWG(J) waste waste PGS PGS management management PS(F) PS(F) POH POH GSS GSS activity activity PXE(EN) PXE(EN) PEK(“w_m”) PEK(“w_m”) PZ PZ

Model Overview policy household policy final consumption policy resource input market policy recycling policy intermediate waste production solid management environmental treatment policy activity waste industry disposal investment final policy disposal CO2 other inter- inputs for pollution capital labor energy mediate inputs management environmental investment resource input

Economic Sectors & Commodities ID contents ID contents AGR agriculture, forestry and fisheries WTR collection, purification and distribution of water MIN mining SAL wholesale and retail trade FOD manufacture of food FIN finance and insurance TEX manufacture of textile mill products EST real estate manufacture of lumber, wood products, TRS transportation and communications PLP pulp, paper and paper products SRV services CHM manufacture of chemical and allied products GOV government service NMM manufacture of ceramic, stone, and clay NPS non-profit institution services products manufacture of equipment for environmental EMC BMT manufacture of iron, steel, non-ferrous preservation metals and products SEW sewage service FMT manufacture of fabricated metal products MWM municipal waste treatment service MCH manufacture of general machinery IWM industrial waste treatment service ELM manufacture of electrical machinery, COL coal mining and manufacture of coal products equipment and supplies OIL crude oil production and manufacture of petroleum TRE manufacture of transportation equipment GAS natural gas production and manufacture of gas manufacture of precision instruments and THE* thermal power generation PRI machinery HYD* hydro power generation OTH miscellaneous manufacturing industries NUC* nuclear power generation CNS construction ELE** electricity *: only sector, and **: only commodity.

Treated Solid Wastes ID Contents ASH ash SLD sludge WOL slush, waste oil WAC waste acid WAL waste alkali WPL * waste plastics WPP * waste paper WWD * waste wood WTX * waste fiber and textile WAP * animal and plants wastes WRB * waste rubber SCM * metal trash, scrap metal WGC * waste glass SLG slag WCT construction and demolition waste DST dust, soot EXC animal excrement CRC animal carcass *: category of municipal waste.

Modification since Last Year • Base Year: 1990 ⇒ 1995 – Revision of Database • Time Step: 5 years ⇒ 1 year • Efficiency Improvement: Exogenous ⇒ Change by New Capital Formation • Taxation: Not Expressed ⇒ Expressed • Capital Stock: Whole Sector ⇒ Individual Sector • Material Balance: Inconsistent ⇒ Consistent • English Manual: Nothing ⇒ Ver. 0 (almost finished)

Simulation and Parameters Modification Database in 1995 Parameters Input-Output Table Energy Balance ・ ・ Table ・ Waste Generation Table Revision of parameters based on Calculation in 1995 calculated new capital stock share Scenarios *Efficiency of new capital Revision of parameters based on *Change of preference Calculation in 1996 calculated new capital stock share *Environmental constraints *… Calculation in 1997 ...

Production Structure of CGE Model goods & service 1 … goods & service m σ =0 Share of energy inputs depends on the diffusion activity of capital stock σ =0 composed intermediate energy value added input for pollution goods & service management σ =0 σ =1 σ =0 σ =0 composed electricity labor production intermediate … intermediate fossil fuel pollution 1 … pollution p capital goods 1 goods n σ =0 σ = ∞ σ =0 fossil fuel 1 … fossil fuel e self contract discharge produced recycled σ =0 management management (environmental σ =0 resource) fossil fuel CO2 emission (environmental intermediate energy environmental labor resource) goods capital σ： elasticity of substitution