CA CAMS MS EMISSION EMISSION INV INVENT ENTOR ORY Latest developments and plans | Jeroen Kuenen et al.
OUTL OUTLINE INE Introduction Methodology Results Data availability What’s coming next 2 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
CAMS CAMS EMISSION EMISSION INVENT INVENTOR ORY Update and extension of older TNO_MACC inventories European wide emission inventory with consistent spatial distribution, developed in support of air quality modelling efforts Multiple versions available V1 (latest: v1.1): single year 2015 (but improved version V2) V2 (latest: v2.2.1): time series 2000-2015 V3 (latest: v3.1): single year 2016 Default profiles (temporal, vertical) and PM/VOC splits available also Each version has separately a file for Air Pollutants (AP) but also Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in support of GHG/co-emitted species modelling All is available for download from ECCAD website (https://eccad.aeris-data.fr) 3 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
CAMS EMISSIONS: CAMS EMISSIONS: METHOD METHODOL OLOGY GY ~ 250 subsectors, Official reported based on NFR with main fuel splits emissions (CEIP/UNFCCC) CAMS 81 GAINS & EDGAR emissions by emission datasets subsector CAMS 81 regional emission product TNO internal Shipping grids estimates (FMI) Spatial proxies • Small combustion • Inland shipping • • Population Agricultural waste burning • • Road transport Etc. • Animal densities 4 | CAMS emission inventory • E-PRTR, etc. etc. 08 October 2019
CA CAMS MS-REG REG-V2 V2: : TIME TIME SE SERIES RIES 20 2000 00-2015 2015 (W (WOR ORK K DONE ONE IN IN 201 2018) 8) Emission data collection, processing, gapfilling (based on 2017 reporting) Change in resolution (0.1 ° x0.05 ° ) and sector coding (GNFR) Significant improvements have been implemented for the 2000-2015 time series: 1. A reprocessing, completeness check and gapfilling for the annual point source data base (2000-2015) 2. Renewed most diffuse sources distribution maps (population, land cover, livestock, road transport) 3. AIS-based emission distribution for international shipping 4. Domain extension to support modelling over the Mediterranean regions More than just Opportunity: an update of Combine efforts with other projects TNO-MACC-III 5 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
FROM FR OM SN SNAP AP TO O GNFR GNFR Goal: harmonize with country reporting and make comparisons easier GNFR SNAP Changes/remarks A_PublicPower 1 (only power&heat plants) Al SNAP1 non-power plants (refineries, coke ovens, oil&gas extraction, and other energy industries: NFR B_Industry 34 (3+4 together) + non- 1A1b+1A1c) move to Industry power plants from SNAP 1 C_OtherStationaryComb 2 D_Fugitive 5 E_Solvents 6 Includes also product use including fireworks and tobacco F_RoadTransport 7 Emissions delivered separately for exhaust in gasoline, (split in F1-F4) diesel, LPG/nat.gas (F1,2,3), and evaporation & wear together as non-exhaust (F4) G_Shipping 8 (only shipping) Split of SNAP 8 in aviation, shipping and other sources. Shipping will include also international shipping at sea. H_Aviation 8 (only aviation) I_Offroad 8 (all SNAP 8 except shipping / aviation) J_Waste 9 K_AgriLivestock 10 (only livestock) Split of SNAP 10 in livestock and other, the latter including the soil emissions and also manure spreading L_AgriOther 10 (all SNAP 10 except L_AgriOther includes agricultural waste burning livestock) M_Other Empty: emissions reported here have been included with E_Solvents 6 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
DATA USE USED D FOR FOR PUBLIC PUBLIC PO POWER WER AND AND HEA HEAT T SE SECT CTOR, OR, EU EU LCP E-PRTR Plant name Facility name Location Location Gapfilling from LCP dataset: Plant type Sector - Fuel type Emission of NOx, SOx and Emissions of CO2, NOx, SO2 - Emissions of NOx, SOx, dust and dust and PM10 CO2 when missing in EPRTR Fuel use by fuel type Years: 2001, 2004, 2007 – 2015 Estimated CO2 dataset - Plants when missing in EPRTR emissions Years: 2004 – 2015 dataset Creating final product Platts WEPP Gapfilling from Platts WEPP dataset: Plant name TNO EI map, EU - Fuel type when missing in LCP Location Facility name dataset (e.g. waste plants) Unit type Location (coordinate + - Crosscheck to see if all large Fuel type country) electricity plants have been Electric capacity Fuel type included Sector (e.g. utility, autoproducer in Pollutant - Crosscheck with sector to see if paper prod.) Share of plant in country facility is part of Public power and Year start of operation emissions by fuel type heat sector Year retired (if applicable) Hugo Denier van der Gon - TNO-CAMS81 emissions @ CAMS50 meeting Toulouse 28 March 2018
EXA EXAMPLE MPLE: : SO2 SO2 TIME TIME SER SERIES IES 8 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
20 2016 16 EMISSIONS: EMISSIONS: CAMS CAMS-REG REG-V3.1 V3.1 (W (WORK ORK DONE DONE IN IN Q1/20 Q1/2019) 19) Providing new emissions for most recent available year Produced in Jan-Feb 2019, released in March 2019 Relatively simple & straightforward approach Latest (2018) reported data (UNFCCC & EMEP) taken up & processed Proxies for 2016 the same as for 2015 (incl. point sources & shares) 9 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
CAMS CAMS-REG REG-V3.1 V3.1 COMP COMPARE ARED D TO O V2.2.1 V2.2.1 (OR: HOW DOES (OR: HO W DOES 2016 FI 2016 FIT WI T WITH TH 2000 2000-2015 T 2015 TIME IME SE SERIES RIES?) ?) Species Change[%] CO 0% NH3 -1% NMVOC -1% NOX -4% PM10 1% PM2_5 1% SO2 -12% CO2_ff -2% CO2_bf 3% CH4 0% 10 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
EXA EXAMPLE MPLE: : CZE CZECH CH REP REPUBL UBLIC IC Difference due to the time series (= reporting year) not 2015 or 2016. CAMs- REGv3 year 2016 cannot be just “glued” to the 2000 -2015 timeseries (CAMS-REGv2.2.1) (see arrows – completely wrong trend emerges! ) In this case due to change of methodology in one sector (Residential combustion) but this is not generic to all countries! This again stresses there is a need for continuous reviewing/updating of emissions! 11 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
NEXT NEXT: : TIME TIME SERIES SERIES 2000 2000-2017 2017 Full updated time series 2000-2017 in preparation now Released within CAMS: April 2020 (will become public later in the year) Incorporating: Latest emission reporting (2019 cycle) for years 2000-2017 New point source information (focus on latest years) Improved road transport distribution maps Shipping: time series of gridded data 12 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
A PERSISTENT ISSUE… RES RESIDENTIAL IDENTIAL COMB COMBUSTION USTION (W (WOOD OOD & CO & COAL) AL) 13 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
INTR INTRODUC ODUCTION TION Large discrepancies between PM emission reporting for small combustion in Europe, mostly related to different measurement techniques used to measure PM2.5 emissions from small combustion appliances (boilers & stoves) Different techniques lead to very different results Filter measurement: excluding condensable component Dilution tunnel method will include condensable component Difference in emission factor can be up to a factor 5 (!) Currently, there is no prescribed method for emission inventories, and consequently countries use a mix of methods 14 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
DE DEVE VELOPM OPMENT ENTS S IN EMISSION IN EMISSION REP REPOR ORTING TING 15 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
BUILD UILDING ING CON CONSIST SISTENCY ENCY Discussions in EMEP ongoing… but hard to everyone moving in the same direction and get full consistency across countries No clear definition of PM2.5 that should be reported Countries are themselves responsible, hard to push Changing now may cause issues with emission ceilings Until the issue is resolved, an alternative baseline has been produced by TNO Combining estimates of wood consumption and emission factors all including condensable component (Denier van der Gon et al., ACP, 2015) 16 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
TO DIS O DISTRI TRIBUT UTE E RW RWC WE C WE US USE E TH THE E FRA FRACTI CTION OF ON OF WOOD OOD THA THAT I T IS S NO NOT LOCA OCALL LLY OB Y OBTAINED (FR AINED (FROM OM FORESTS) FOREST S) – THI THIS S IS IS NO NOT FORMA T FORMALL LLY KN Y KNOWN WN 17 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
DEV DEVEL ELOPMENT OPMENTS S IN EMI IN EMISSION SSION REP REPOR ORTING TING +40% 18 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
IMP IMPACT CT ON ON MODEL MODELLING LING RES RESUL ULTS TS LOTOS-EUROS model over Germany using different emissions/options • RWC = using TNO bottom-up inventory for residential combustion instead of base emissions • Heating = using HDD approach for emission timing instead of default profile Niesky – daily TC 19 | CAMS emission inventory 08 October 2019
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