Effects of CO Emission Targets Effects of CO 2 Emission Targets in - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 13 th International AIM Workshop Tsukuba, February 13-15, 2008 Emission Inventory and Modeling Applications: Effects of CO Emission Targets Effects of CO 2 Emission Targets in Thailand Ram M. Shr e stha and Shr e e kar Pr adhan Asian Institute of T Asian Institute of T e c hnology e c hnology T hailand Email: ram@ait.ac.th Email: ram@ait.ac.th

Thailand Model: Base Case Base Case assumptions: • Hydro Import: • Hydro Import: – 4000 ktoe (Assumption: 21 GW of hydropower electricity is available as electricity import in the base case by 2050) y p y ) • Nuclear will be introduced by 2020: – 2500 ktoe (4000 MW) • Nuclear power generation will be available to the maximum of – 20,000 ktoe by 2050 • Biodiesel (B10) will be available up to – 40,000 ktoe by by 2050 40 000 kt b b 2050 • Gasohol (E10) will be available up to – 20,000 ktoe by 2050. 20 000 ktoe by 2050

Energy Supply and Demand during 2000-2050 during 2000 2050 Total Primary Energy Supply 600 600 Renewables and others 500 Hydro Biomass 400 Nuclear toe Nat gas g 300 300 Mt Coal Oil 200 100 - - 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Final Energy Demand 400 Agriculture 350 Residential 300 Commercial 250 Transport toe 200 200 Industrial Industrial Mt 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emission 1400 1400 Base Case 1200 15% CO2 Target 1000 1000 800 MtCO2 15% CO2 target M 600 600 400 200 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • 15% CO 2 target introduced from 2015 • 2.7 billion tCO 2 would be reduced during 2000-2050 2 7 billi tCO ld b d d d i 2000 2050 (10%) and 186 billion tCO 2 in year 2050 (15%).

CO2 emission per capita in Base Case during 2000-2050 Base Case 22 USA 20 Australia 18 Canada 16 tCO2 per capita a 14 12 Singapore 10 Japan 8 t 6 4 2 - 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Sectoral CO 2 emission in the Base case Base case 1400 Agriculture Residential R id ti l 1200 Commercial Transport Power 1000 Industrial Agriculture Agriculture 800 MtCO2 Residential 600 600 Commercial Transport 400 Power 200 Industrial 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • Industrial, Transport and Power sectors together account for 94% share in CO2 emission for 94% share in CO2 emission. • Residential, Commercial and Agriculture sectors together account for 6% share in CO2 emission

Sectoral shares in CO 2 emission Secto a s a es CO 2 e ss o Sectoral Share in CO2 emission 100% 90% 90% 80% Residential 70% Commercial A Agriculture i lt 60% % Share Industrial 50% Transport Power 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2050 2050 2000-2050 2000-2050 Base case Base case 15% CO2 Target Base case 15% CO2 Target • The power sector would achieve the largest CO 2 emission reduction (73%) followed by Transport sector (15%) and Industrial sector (12%) (73%) followed by Transport sector (15%) and Industrial sector (12%).

Technology-mix in Power Generation Shares of different technologies in Power Generation 100% 90% Nuclear 80% Renewables 70% Hydro 60% % share Conventional 50% Cogeneration 40% Combined Cycle 30% 30% CCS 20% IGCC and PFBC 10% 0% 2050 2050 2000-2050 2000-2050 Base Case 15% CO2 Target Base Case 15% CO2 Target CO 2 target would (during 2000-2050) – introduce CCS based coal fired power generation (188 Mtoe). – reduce the shares of IGCC, PFBC and Cogeneration (150 Mtoe). – increase the levels of of combined cycle power generation (130 Mtoe) – d decrease the levels of conventional coal and oil based power generation (69 Mtoe). h l l f i l l d il b d i (69 M ) – increase Hydro based power generation (24 Mtoe).

Changes in Power Supply Technology under 15% CO Target Technology under 15% CO 2 Target Increase from Base Case 150 130.4 118.4 100 18.9 50 24.2 0.3 - Mtoe CCS IGCC and Cogeneration Combined Conventional Hydro Biomass Renewables Nuclear -2.2 PFBC Cycle (Conventional (50) and IGCC) -55.1 -68.7 (100) (150) -177.6 (200) 15% CO 2 target would require (during 2000-2050) – CCS based coal fired power generation (188 Mtoe). – Combined cycle power generation (130 Mtoe) Combined cycle power generation (130 Mtoe) – Hydro based power generation (24 Mtoe). – Biomass (18.9 Mtoe)

Final Energy Demand under 15% CO 2 Reduction Target 15% CO R d i T 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 4% 100% 100% 4% 4% 6% 7% 90% 11% 16% 12% 10% 10% 80% 6% 70% Agriculture 40% 39% 39% 38% 60% Residential hare 39% 50% 50% Commercial Commercial % S Transport 40% Industrial 30% 44% 43% 43% 43% 20% 35% 10% 0% 2000 2050 2050 2000-2050 2000-2050 Base Case Base Case 15% CO2 Target Base Case 15% CO2 Target • Not significant changes under 15% CO2 target • Industrial and Transport sector would experience a small decrease in energy demand.

Final Energy Demand under 15% CO 15% CO 2 target 10000 10000 Industrial Transport Commercial Residential Agriculture 9000 8637 8380 8000 7000 6000 toe 5000 5000 Mt 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 Base Case 15% CO2 Target • • Industrial (108 Mtoe) and Transport sector (159 Mtoe) final Industrial (108 Mtoe) and Transport sector (159 Mtoe) final energy demand would slightly decline.

Share of technologies in the transport sector the transport sector 100% Gasohol Gasohol 90% 90% 80% Electric 70% 60% are Biodiesel Biodiesel % Sha 50% 40% Efficient vehicles 30% 20% 20% H b id Hybrid 10% 0% Fuel Cell 2000 2050 2050 2000-2050 2000-2050 Conventional Base Case Base Case 15% CO2 Base Case 15% CO2 Target Target • • Efficient gasoline/diesel vehicles (30%) hybrid vehicles (24%) Efficient gasoline/diesel vehicles (30%), hybrid vehicles (24%) would have a major share in the base case followed by bio-diesel (15%) and Gasohol (3%). • 15% CO 2 target would increase the share of biodiesel (by 4%), gasohol vehicles (3%) and hybrid vehicles (3%).

NOx emission under 15% CO2 target Emission of NOx pollutants 7 Base Case 6 6 15% CO2 Target 5 on tons 4 Millio 3 2 1 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • 7 million ton of NOx is reduced during 2000-2050.

SOx emission under 15% CO2 target Emission of SOx pollutants 10 9 Base Case 8 15% CO2 Target 7 on tons 6 5 Millio 4 3 2 1 1 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • 40 million ton of SOx is reduced during 2000-2050.

Co-benefits of 15% CO 2 target Reduction in NOx and SOx • Power sector would 30 achieve the largest achieve the largest NOx NOx 25 SOx NOx emission 20 reduction followed n tons 15 by the industrial by the industrial Million sector. 10 5 • In transport In transport, - Agriculture Commercial Power Industrial Residential Transport 0.4 million ton of (5) NOx would be increased. increased. Net reduction in NOx and SOx pollutants 50 50 41 Million tons Transport 40 Agriculture • Industrial Sector Residential on tons 30 Commercial would achieve the Power 20 Industrial Industrial Millio largest SOx 7 Million tons 10 emission reduction - followed by the NOx SOx (10) power and transport d t t sector.

Energy Import Dependency under 15% CO2 target Enegy Import Dependency under 15 % CO2 target 80% Base Case 75% 15% CO2 Target g 70% 65% % % 60% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 • Energy import dependency reduces by 2% during 2000-2050 • The same would reduce by 4% in year 2050 The same would reduce by 4% in year 2050.

Concluding Remarks • To achieve a target of 15% reduction in CO 2 T hi t t f 15% d ti i CO emission, – CCS and combined cycle technology in the power CCS d bi d l t h l i th sector would play a major role. – Renewable energy would not be contributing Renewable energy would not be contributing significantly in CO2 reduction in the power sector. – In transport sector, bio-diesel, gasohol and hybrid vehicles would have significant role in emission reduction. – The results would be affected if modal shift to The results would be affected if modal shift to railways and other mass transport systems are considered.

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