Emission and Modeling Update p OTC 2010 Annual Meeting g - PDF document

Emission and Modeling Update p OTC 2010 Annual Meeting g Baltimore MD Baltimore, MD June 3

Overview 1. Ozone Design Values 2. Conceptual Model Update 3. Emissions Inventory Updates 4. Coming Attractions We thank the following organizations for their work and contributions to this presentation: • Maine Department of Environmental Protection • New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services • Maryland Department of the Environment • New York Department of Environmental Conservation • Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management • Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association

Overview 1. Ozone Design Values a. 2009 Ozone Season b. 2009 Design Values c. Potential Nonattainment Areas for Reconsidered Ozone Standard 2. Conceptual Model Updates 3. Emissions Inventory Updates 4. Coming Attractions

2009 Ozone Season Was Fairly Clean 4 th Highest Monitored Value 50 - 59.9 ppb 56 - 64.9 ppb 65 - 69.9 ppb 70 - 74.9 ppb 75 - 79.9 ppb 80 - 84.9 ppb > 85 ppb

2009 Ozone Design Values Indicate Attainment with 0.8 ppm Standard for Most of OTC 3 Yr Average of 4 th Highest Monitored Values Monitored Values < 75 ppb 75 to 84.9 ppb > 85 ppb

Potential Nonattainment By CSA (2007-2009 DV) No Data No Data < 65 ppb 65-70 ppb 70+ ppb

Overview 1. Ozone Design Values g 2. Conceptual Model Update p p 3. Emissions Inventory Updates y p 4. Coming Attractions g

Ozone Conceptual Model • Update to “The Nature of the Ozone Air Quality Problem in the Ozone Transport Region: A Conceptual in the Ozone Transport Region: A Conceptual Description” NESCAUM report - October 2006 • A qualitative synthesis of existing information, not a new analysis • It seeks to address questions posed by the original EPA guidance, e.g.: – Is O 3 problem local or regional in character? Is O problem local or regional in character? – Is transport important? – What types of weather lead to high O 3 ? – Is O 3 limited by NOx, VOCs, or both? I O li it d b NO VOC b th?

Ozone Conceptual Model Update • Incorporates post-2005 scientific literature and revised EPA guidance • Overview of transport meteorology, pathways, and exceptional events p • Post-NOx SIP Call and CAIR Phase I ozone trends in OTR • Summarizes recent studies projecting future climate impacts on ozone in eastern US • Will need to address reconsidered ozone standard

Transport Pathways Transport Pathways • Smaller scale - seabreeze/surface winds • Larger scale - channeled; nocturnal low Larger scale channeled noct rnal lo level jets • Largest scale - synoptic; upper level ozone reservoir

transport Surface Surface Meteorological & Transport Paths

Nocturnal low level Meteorological & Transport Paths jet j

reservoir Upper ozone level level Meteorological & Transport Paths

The Elevated Ozone Reservoir • Every bad ozone day, in the morning hours, a large reservoir of ozone sits reservoir of ozone sits above the Mid-Atlantic area waiting to mix down. – Ozone levels in the reservoir can Ozone levels in the reservoir can routinely reach 60 to 100 ppb. – In the morning, ozone levels at Incoming Ozone Incoming Ozone the surface are very low. August 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT) August 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT) August 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT) August 2, 2005 (7:00 AM EDT) Beltsville, MD Beltsville, MD • Around 10:00 or 11:00 AM, Good Good Good Moderate Moderate Moderate Unhealthy for Unhealthy for Unhealthy for Unhealthy Unhealthy Unhealthy Sensitive Groups Sensitive Groups Sensitive Groups 12000 12000 air begins to mix vertically allowing ozone in the allowing ozone in the 9000 9000 Residual Layer Residual Layer Residual Layer Height (ft) Height (ft) reservoir to mix down to the from 1500 – 6000 ft from 1500 – 6000 ft from 1500 – 6000 ft of 110 ppb of 110 ppb of 110 ppb 110 ppb 110 ppb 110 ppb 6000 6000 surface and degrade air Ozone-reduced Ozone-reduced Ozone-reduced quality quality. 3000 3000 3000 3000 surface layer surface layer surface layer f f f l l l < 40 ppb < 40 ppb < 40 ppb 40 ppb 40 ppb 40 ppb < < < 0 0 0 0 15 15 30 30 45 45 60 60 75 75 90 90 105 105 Ozone (ppb) Ozone (ppb) Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University

Trends in 8-hour Ozone in the OTR: 1997-2009 240 0.153 0.16 # days > 84 ppb # days > 64 ppb MAX 8-hr 220 0.137 0.135 200 0.133 0.133 0.14 0.131 0.130 0.130 0.125 0.123 0.121 180 0 12 0.12 0.112 0 112 0.109 160 151 151 ncentration (ppm) 138 0.10 140 130 130 128 127 125 # Days 118 120 112 111 106 0.08 8-hour Ozone Con 100 85 78 0.06 80 71 67 54 60 52 0.04 48 47 37 36 34 40 40 30 30 26 0.02 20 11 0 0.00 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ozone Conceptual Model Update: N New Considerations & Conclusions C id ti & C l i Lower Ozone NAAQS • More ozone exceedances and a longer ozone season • Transport will play a greater role – Transport component can often be > 70 ppb standard • High ozone levels at remote and high elevation area monitors are indicative of transport and may also require action under the secondary standard • Need for national rules in addition to regional rules will • Need for national rules in addition to regional rules will increase and is critical

Ozone Conceptual Model Update: N New Considerations & Conclusions C id ti & C l i Ozone Formation and Controls Ozone Formation and Controls • Ozone formation can be NOx-sensitive during some times of day and VOC-sensitive during others y g • Need for NOx reductions across a larger region, combined with localized VOC reductions in urban centers • Regional NOx SIP Call reductions showed greater ozone improvements than predicted by modeling

Ozone Conceptual Model Update: New Considerations & Conclusions Climate Change • Warmer temperatures enhance ozone formation • Methane reductions might become a potentially • Methane reductions might become a potentially effective future approach to address both global ozone levels and climate change

Overview 1. Ozone Design Values 2. Conceptual Model Update 3 3. Emissions Inventory Updates Emissions Inventory Updates a. a. Point Source Stakeholder Comments Point Source Stakeholder Comments b. Hourly Point Source Inventory c. Area, Nonroad and Onroad Inventories 4. Coming Attractions

Point Source Stakeholder Comments Point Source Stakeholder Comments • About 30 comments received • Relatively minor revisions to emissions • Improvements to PM emissions (PM2.5, condensables) – Limited new stack test data available to better quantify PM2.5 • Revisions to stack parameters used for modeling • Identification of sources that have shut down Identification of sources that have shut down – Most were post-2007, so emissions kept in 2007 actual inventory – States to consider shutdowns in future year inventories • Nearly all Stakeholder comments were accepted by States

Change in Annual Emissions Change in Annual Emissions • Regionally, very little change in SO2, NOx, VOC, CO from original State submittals original State submittals • PM10 and PM2.5 increased due to addition of condensables and gap-filling for PM2.5 when PM2.5 not provided g p g p 140,000 120,000 ssions (tons) 100,000 80,000 2007 Emis Version 1.1 60,000 Version 1.2 40,000 Version 1.3 Version 1.4 Version 1.4 20,000 0 PM2.5 PM10

NOx and VOC Emissions Inventory NOx NOx 6,000,000 5,000,000 Year 4 000 000 4,000,000 Tons per Y 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Area Onroad Nonroad Non-EGU EGU Point Point VOC 6,000,000 5,000,000 Year 4,000,000 Tons per Y 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Area Onroad Nonroad Non-EGU EGU Point Point

High % of SO2 and NOx Emissions will be M d l d Modeled using Actual 2007 Hourly Data i A t l 2007 H l D t • 92% of Point Source SO2 has • 68% of Point Source NOx has 2007 actual hourly data 2007 actual hourly data Actual 8% Hourly Actual Hourly 32% 3 % Default Default 68% Hourly Hourly Profiles Profiles 92% 92% Profiles

Remaining Emission Inventory Tasks • 2007 Inventory • Complete area source, marine, air, rail, and Complete area source, marine, air, rail, and on-road mobile • Continue to work with EPA on MOVES • Inventories for other regions & Canada • Future baseline inventories – 2013, 2017, 2020 Future baseline inventories 2013 2017 2020 • Projections for non-EGU point, area, marine air and rail marine, air, and rail • Run NONROAD for future years • Run MOVES for future years y • Inventories for other regions & Canada

Inventory Schedule Inventory Schedule • Summer 2010 Summer 2010 – Stakeholder review of additional 2007 inventory elements as completed inventory elements as completed – Stakeholder review of future year projections as developed as developed – Analysis of inventory data – Updates and corrections in response Updates and corrections in response comments