Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Sebastian Kopf*, Minh Ha Duong + , Stéphane Hallegatte ‡ * Jacobs University, + CIRED, ‡ CIRED/Météo-France Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Feb. 22nd 2008

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Sebastian Kopf*, Minh Ha Duong + , Stéphane Hallegatte ‡ * Jacobs University, + CIRED, ‡ CIRED/Météo-France Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Feb. 22nd 2008

Using Analogues • a “city analogue” is… “A City B whose present climate corresponds to the simulated future climate of an evaluated City A.“ ���������������������������������������������� • “climate” is… the 30 year distribution of relevant indicators Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Introduction Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Page 1 / 12 Berlin Conference, Feb. 22 nd 2008

Climate Indicators – Aridity Index Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Part I: Indicators Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Page 2 / 12 Berlin Conference, Feb. 22 nd 2008

Climate Indicators – Degree Days Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Part I: Indicators Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Page 3 / 12 Berlin Conference, Feb. 22 nd 2008

Climate Similarity – Kolmogorov-Smirnov Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Part I: Similarity Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Page 4 / 12 Berlin Conference, Feb. 22 nd 2008

Climate Similarity – Kolmogorov-Smirnov Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Part I: Similarity Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Page 5 / 12 Berlin Conference, Feb. 22 nd 2008

Analogue quality map for Paris Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Part I: Analogues Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Page 6 / 12 Berlin Conference, Feb. 22 nd 2008

Using Analogues • a “city analogue” is… “A City B whose present climate corresponds to the simulated future climate of an evaluated City A.“ • “climate” is… the 30 year distribution of suitable parameters � � � � visualization of “good” analogues using analogue quality maps � visualization of aggregate displacement using multiple � � � analogue maps Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Overview Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Page 8 / 12 Berlin Conference, Feb. 22 nd 2008

Model run sensitivity: HadRM3H ackda Arpège DE6

Scenario sensitivity: B2 A2 HadRM3P forced by HadAM3P Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Part II: Uncertainty Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Page 10 / 12 Berlin Conference, Feb. 22 nd 2008

Using Analogues • a “city analogue” is… “A City B whose present climate corresponds to the simulated future climate of an evaluated City A.“ • “climate” is… the 30 year distribution of suitable parameters � visualization of “good” analogues using analogue quality maps � visualization of aggregate displacement using multiple analogue maps � assessment of uncertainty by comparing multiple model � � � and scenario analogue maps Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Overview Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Page 11 / 12 Berlin Conference, Feb. 22 nd 2008

Conclusion analogues provide a method to talk about climate change to the lay-person adaptation cannot rely on climate change predictions (yet?) Thank you for your attention! Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Conclusion Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Page 12 / 12 Berlin Conference, Feb. 22 nd 2008