Climate Change Climate Change Why haven't we done more? Sam Crawley Victoria University of Wellington 1
Climate change history Climate change history 2
Climate change history Climate change history 1950s/1960s: Climate science established 1970s/1980s: Climate change on the political agenda James Hansen presented to US Senate committee, 1988 James Hansen Reported on front-page of the NYT 1990s: Rio Earth Summit, UNFCCC established 3
Climate change consequences Climate change consequences Assuming "BAU" (4°C to 6°C by 2100) 1 metre sea level rise (conservative estimate) Changes in weather: Wetter/drier weather in some regions Increase in extreme weather events (cyclones, heat waves, storms) Ocean acidification 4
Climate change consequences Climate change consequences Mass migration Health problems Disruption of food production Resource scarcity (especially fresh water) Social instability and war 5
To summarise To summarise We've known about climate change for a long time The effects will be catastrophic So... why haven't we done more??? Image Source: Calyponte via Wikimedia Commons 6
Why haven't we done more? Why haven't we done more? How far away are we from doing "enough"? What have we done so far? What do we need to do? Who or what do we mean by "we"? Who is actually making the decisions? 7
What have we done so far? What have we done so far? Emissions Levels & Trends International agreements National emissions records / targets 8
Global Emissions Trends Global Emissions Trends Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas 9
Rate of Emissions Rate of Emissions 10
NZ Emissions NZ Emissions Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas 11
UK Emissions UK Emissions Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas 12 . 1
Denmark Emissions Denmark Emissions Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas 12 . 2
US Emissions US Emissions Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas 12 . 3
2017 CO2 emissions by country 2017 CO2 emissions by country Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas 13 . 1
2017 CO2 emissions per person 2017 CO2 emissions per person Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas 13 . 2
2016 CO2 consumption 2016 CO2 consumption Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas 13 . 3
2016 CO2 consumption per person 2016 CO2 consumption per person Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas 13 . 4
International Agreements International Agreements UNFCCC - established in 1992 IPCC - established in 1988 Kyoto Protocol Paris Agreement Image Source: UNFCCC via Flickr 14
Paris Agreement Paris Agreement Agreement in 2015 to limit warming to 1.5°C "Nationally determined contributions" (NDCs) Submitted every 5 years (next one due 2020) Voluntary emissions targets Image Source: UNFCCC via Flickr 15
Paris Agreement Paris Agreement Good: 196 countries agreed (almost all have ratified) Measurement of current targets Bad: It's voluntary / non-binding Commitments not ambitious enough 16
Paris Agreement so far Paris Agreement so far Source: Climate Action Tracker 17
Paris Agreement so far Paris Agreement so far Source: Climate Action Tracker 18
Summary - what have we done? Summary - what have we done? Emissions continuing to rise Falling in some countries Partly due to moving production offshore Partly due to rise in natural gas use Paris Agreement not working (well) 19
What do we need to do? What do we need to do? Keep warming to 1.5°C (or at most 2°C) Reduce emissions Social policy 20
Emissions pathways Emissions pathways Source: Climate Action Tracker 21
Social Policy Social Policy Urban planning Reducing consumption Adaptation Manage changes (e.g. worker transitions) 22
What do we mean by "we"? What do we mean by "we"? Everyone! ...but maybe not equally? Who is responsible for most of the emissions? Who is in the best position to lead action? 23
Who can make changes Who can make changes Personal National International 24
Who can make changes Who can make changes World system revolves around national governments International agencies generally lack "teeth" Coordination problems with individual action Rich countries have more power OECD Countries 25
Who or what is holding us back? Who or what is holding us back? The Economy Technology Complexity Corporations Politicians Public opinion Climate change deniers Structural limitations Capitalism? Representative democracy? 26
The Economy The Economy Mitigating climate change is expensive But more "expensive" to do nothing Maximum emissions reduction rate (3-5% p.a.) e.g. need to replace coal power plants before retiring them Short-term and "efficiency" focus of economics 27
Technology Technology Things we already have low/zero carbon replacements for: Electricity generation Cars / Local transport Buildings Image Source: tec_estromberg (technology-1) via Flickr 28
Technology Technology Things we don't really have good low/zero carbon replacements for: Air Travel Shipping Meat (including fish) Plastic With some social changes, technology not really a barrier Image Source: tec_estromberg (technology-1) via Flickr 29
Complexity Complexity Climate change is " Super Wicked ": Time is running out The people causing the problem are involved in solving it No global authority to address it Easier to defer action 30
Complexity Complexity Climate change is a hard problem.... But, we're not really doing the "easy" things, e.g. Price on carbon National-level climate legislation (zero carbon bill) Ambitious Paris NDCs Planning for low-carbon future 31
Corporations Corporations Vested interests (esp. fossil fuel companies) Often have a lot of money and influence Spread disinformation, foster doubt But.... Highly reliant on consumer behaviour Also reliant on political influence 32
Politicians Politicians Shouldn't they be doing more to lead us forward? Influence of money in politics Short-term focus Politicians want to get re-elected Image Source: Nick-D via Wikimedia Commons 33
Public opinion Public opinion Public opinion can shape policy Politicians want to keep voters happy What do people think about climate change? 34
Three Types of Deniers Three Types of Deniers People who don't believe climate change is happening People who don't believe it is caused by humans People who don't think it's a serious problem 35
How many deniers are there? How many deniers are there? Source: Pew Research Center (2015) 36
How many deniers are there? How many deniers are there? Agreement with reality and causes of climate change in NZ Agreement with reality and causes of climate change in NZ Data Source: NZ Attitudes and Values Study (2014); Milfont et al. (2017) 37
Does denial ma�er? Does denial ma�er? 38
Does denial ma�er? Does denial ma�er? Approx. 10-20% of the population are deniers 70-80% concerned about climate change ...and want something done about it So shouldn't politicians be acting on this public concern? 39
Issue salience Issue salience 40
Issue salience Issue salience Most people are concerned about climate change But most people are more concerned about other issues Usually a small number of issues on the political agenda at one time Most people don't vote with climate issues in mind Not enough public pressure on politicians 41
Structural Issues - Capitalism Structural Issues - Capitalism Reforms probably needed Regulations/taxes needed "One economics, many recipes" Replacement? But with what? Would strong public engagement overcome corporate power? 42
Structural Issues - Democracy Structural Issues - Democracy Authoritarianism Deliberative democracy or Anarchism Transition problems 43
How do we move forward? How do we move forward? Corporate power is a problem Public opinion/engagement is key Activism can help Voting is critical 44
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