Global Climate Change Impacts: Global Climate Change Impacts: Implications for Climate Engineering Implications for Climate Engineering Thomas R. Karl Lead, NOAA climate services Director, NOAA National Climatic Data Center October 29, 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Future climate change and its impacts Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today depend on choices made today Response Strategies to Climate Response Strategies to Climate Change Change “Mitigation “ Mitigation” ” – – reducing the amount of reducing the amount of climate change, for example, by climate change, for example, by reducing emissions or increasing their reducing emissions or increasing their removal from the atmosphere removal from the atmosphere (including climate engineering) (including climate engineering) “Adaptation Adaptation” ” – – improving our improving our “ ability to cope with or avoid harmful ability to cope with or avoid harmful impacts or taking advantage of impacts or taking advantage of newly favorable conditions newly favorable conditions Both will be needed. Both will be needed. 2 2 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
globalchange.gov/usimpacts globalchange.gov/usimpacts The “ “state of knowledge state of knowledge” ” The report summarizes the report summarizes the science and impacts of science and impacts of climate change in the U.S. climate change in the U.S. Plain language, authoritative Plain language, authoritative US Global Change Research Program US Global Change Research Program report, led by NOAA report, led by NOAA Extensive review: public reviews (2), blue Extensive review: public reviews (2), blue ribbon expert review, federal agency ribbon expert review, federal agency (GCRP) review (GCRP) review Draws from all previous assessments, Draws from all previous assessments, global and national (IPCC, CCSP etc) global and national (IPCC, CCSP etc) Author team was a 31- -member FACA member FACA Author team was a 31 body and included federal, academic and body and included federal, academic and private sector experts private sector experts 3 3 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Report released in June in a Report released in June in a White House press briefing White House press briefing The report breaks down climate change impacts on the U.S. into: • Global Section Global Section • • National Overview National Overview • • 9 regions: 9 regions: • • Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Alaska, Islands, coasts • 7 sectors: 7 sectors: • • Concludes with Concludes with “ “An Agenda for Science An Agenda for Science” ” • 4 4 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Implications of this report for Implications of this report for climate engineering: climate engineering: • Climate changes are happening now and are Climate changes are happening now and are • likely to grow in the coming decades. likely to grow in the coming decades. • Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized at Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized at ‘ ‘low low’ ’ • scenarios (550ppm), impacts will be widespread and significant. scenarios (550ppm), impacts will be widespread and significant. • Many impacts will not be avoided. • Many impacts will not be avoided. • Increased motivation for climate engineering? Increased motivation for climate engineering? • • BUT Research into effectiveness and appropriateness of BUT Research into effectiveness and appropriateness of • climate engineering – – barely begun barely begun climate engineering • Unintended regional consequences possible • Unintended regional consequences possible • Lowering global average temperature • Lowering global average temperature ≠ ≠ limiting regional impacts limiting regional impacts 5 5 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
For example: teleconnections with short- -lived lived For example: teleconnections with short radiatively active gases radiatively active gases Forcing is mostly in SE Forcing is mostly in SE Asia Asia Response in summer is Response in summer is strongest in N. American strongest in N. American continental interior continental interior Just discovering these Just discovering these possible teleconnections/ possible teleconnections/ impacts impacts Surface Temperature change from ~2010 to Surface Temperature change from ~2010 to 2100 in GISS GFDL model 2100 in GISS GFDL model MUCH uncertainty in MUCH uncertainty in scenarios and responses scenarios and responses 6 6 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced human induced Global Temperature and CO 2 Global Temperature and CO Human fingerprints have been identified Human fingerprints have been identified 2 in many aspects of climate change in many aspects of climate change • Temperature Temperature • • Precipitation Precipitation • • Ocean heat content • Ocean heat content Atmospheric moisture • Atmospheric moisture • • Arctic sea ice Arctic sea ice • Separating Human and Natural Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate Influences on Climate 7 7 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human- -induced induced human Moving Outside the Range of Historical Variation Moving Outside the Range of Historical Variation 800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide Concentration 800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide Concentration 8 8 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human- -induced induced human About 1/3 of the CO 2 from fossil fuel burning remains in the atmosphere after 100 years About 1/5 of it remains after 1000 years The U.S. is responsible for about 28% of human ‐ induced heat ‐ trapping gases in the atmosphere today 9 9 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human- -induced induced human 10 10 10 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Global warming is unequivocal and primarily Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human- -induced induced human Heaviest 5% of precip Temperature 11 11 11 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Change in Population from 1970 Key Findings Key Findings to 2008 1.Global Warming is unequivocal and 1.Global Warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced primarily human induced 2. Climate Changes are underway in 2. Climate Changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow the U.S. and are projected to grow 3. Widespread climate- -related related 3. Widespread climate impacts are occurring now and are impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase expected to increase Projected Changes in Annual Runoff 4. Climate Change will stress water 4. Climate Change will stress water resources resources 5. Crop and livestock production will 5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged be increasingly challenged 12 12 12 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Key Findings Key Findings 6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise 6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise and storm surge and storm surge 7. Risks to human health will increase 7. Risks to human health will increase Pollen Counts Rise with Increasing 8. Climate change will interact 8. Climate change will interact Carbon Dioxide with many social and with many social and environmental stresses environmental stresses 9. Thresholds will be crossed 9. Thresholds will be crossed leading to large changes leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems in climate and ecosystems 10.Future climate and its 10.Future climate and its impacts depends on impacts depends on choices made today choices made today 13 13 13 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Climate changes are underway are underway in the U.S. in the U.S. Climate changes (and globally) and are projected to grow (and globally) and are projected to grow Temperature rise Temperature rise Sea- -level rise level rise Sea Increase in heavy downpours Increase in heavy downpours Observed U.S. Sea- -Level Changes Level Changes Observed U.S. Sea Rapidly retreating glaciers Rapidly retreating glaciers Thawing permafrost Thawing permafrost Longer growing Longer growing season season Longer ice- -free season free season Longer ice in the ocean and on lakes in the ocean and on lakes and rivers and rivers Earlier snowmelt Earlier snowmelt Changes in river flows Changes in river flows 14 14 14 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
Climate changes are underway in the U.S. Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow and are projected to grow Recent Past, 1961- -1979 1979 Recent Past, 1961 Number of Number of Days Over 100 º º F F Days Over 100 15 15 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
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