Understanding Drought: A Case Study of India SVRK P SVRK Prabhakar bh k Climate Policy Researcher, Climate Policy Project Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Japan prabhakar@iges.or.jp, sivapuram.prabhakar@gmail.com Presented at: API Course, UNU, Tokyo. 3 rd November 2009. Presented via video conference from IGES, Hayama, Japan Note: Draft presentation subject to final modifications Organization of This Talk Organization of This Talk � What is drought in India? What is drought in India? 20 min � How vulnerable is India to drought � How vulnerable is India to drought How vulnerable is India to drought How vulnerable is India to drought –The past & Present The past & Present � Dr Drought management in India ought management in India � Major issues in existing drought risk Major issues in existing drought risk mitigation in India mitigation in India Q&A 8 min � Climate Change Scenario � Climate Change Scenario Climate Change Scenario Climate Change Scenario � What needs to be done? What needs to be done? Q&A 1
Drought Classification by IMD Drought Classification by IMD Aridity Index: Aridity Index: − WaterDefic WaterDefic it it PE PE AE AE × 100 = PE WaterNeed The departure of Aridity Index from the normal value is expressed in % and accordingly value is expressed in % and accordingly drought in a Meteorological Sub Division is categorized as • Severe (more than 51%) • Moderate (26-50%) • Mild (up to 25%). Meteorological Divisions in India Meteorological Divisions in India � India is divided India is divided into into 36 into into 36 36 Met Sub 36 Met Sub Met Sub Met Sub Divisions based Divisions based on the on the homogeneity of homogeneity of climate climate 2
All India Drought All India Drought If area affected by one of the above two criteria for drought either individually or collectively is more than 20% of the total area of the country. What are Drought Prone Areas? What are Drought Prone Areas? Central Water Commission, Central Water Commission, Ministry of Water Resources: Ministry of Water Resources: An area is drought affected An area is drought affected An area is drought affected An area is drought affected when the annual rainfall is when the annual rainfall is less than less than 75% 75% of the normal of the normal in 20% in 20% of the years examined of the years examined and have less than and have less than 30% 30% of of the cultivated area under the cultivated area under M Map showing drought prone h i d ht irrigation irrigation states in India • 16% of India’s total area is drought prone • On an average 191 of 543 districts are affected by drought • More than 68% of the Land is vulnerable to drought • 50 million people are annually affected by drought 3
India’s Drought Vulnerability India’s Drought Vulnerability Spatial Distribution of Rainfall Spatial Distribution of Rainfall High rainfall Medium rainfall zone (1125 mm - zone (750 mm - 2000 mm) 2000 ) 1125 mm) 24% 35% Very high Low rainfall rainfall zone zone (Area with (>2000 mm) <750 mm) 8% 33% 4
Area of the Country Affected by Moderate Area of the Country Affected by Moderate and Severe Drought and Severe Drought 19.3 17.5 22.4 30.6 25.2 27.9 31.6 1877 1899 40.5 44.1 0.3 10.7 16.9 1.2 62.8 12 65.6 70 70.9 77.3 28.9 24.3 The image cannot be displayed. Your 1899 1901 computer may not have enough memory to 1877 1877 1905 1905 open the image, or the image may have th i th i h 1904 1904 and then open the file again. If the red x been corrupted. Restart your computer, … 1891 1907 13 18.8 17.8 21.1 24.5 30.27 35.7 1918 15.4 3.4 44.03 10.7 62 71.6 71.5 75.5 2.3 77.8 78.9 25.7 1913 1911 1918 1920 1915 1939 1925 21.9 27.1 35.1 35.5 35.4 36.6 38.3 59.6 61.7 6.9 64.9 64.5 66 64.6 3.8 78.1 1951 1974 1972 1965 1968 1941 1966 16.7 23.6 29.1 29.8 3 1987 2002 2004 6.7 52.3 70.9 69.7 80.3 17.9 1982 1986 1985 1987 2002 2002 Severe Drought – Rainfall Deficiency Exceeding 50% of the Normal Rainfall Normal Moderate Drought – Rainfall Deficiency 26% to 50% of the Normal Drought Frequency Drought Frequency Frequency of Deficient Meteorological Sub- Rainfall Division (75% of normal or less) ( ) Assam & NE Region Rare, once in 15 years WB, West MP, Konkan, Once in 5 years Madhya MAH, Kerala, Bihar & Orissa SIK, East Rajasthan, Once in 4 years Vidarbha Gujarat East & Vidarbha, Gujarat, East & west UP Tamilnadu , J&K Once in 3 years Rayalaseema, Telangana & Once in 2.5 years West Rajasthan 5
Reasons India’s Rainfall Distribution India’s Rainfall Distribution � India receives its annual rainfall in four � India receives its annual rainfall in four India receives its annual rainfall in four India receives its annual rainfall in four spells: spells: – Pre Pre- -Monsoon(March Monsoon(March- -May) May) -- --10 10. .4 4 % % – – SouthWest Monsoon (Jun SouthWest Monsoon (Jun- -Sept) Sept) -- -- 73 73. .3 3% % – – NorthEast Monsoon(Oct NorthEast Monsoon(Oct- ( -Dec) Dec) -- ) -- 13 13. .3 3% % – Winter Rains (January Winter Rains (January- -Feb.) Feb.) -- -- 3. .0 0 % % Reasons Monsoon Monsoon - - Inter Inter- -seasonal seasonal Variability Variability 6
Drought Drought Drought Drought Management in Management in India India India India Center and State Center and State � Drought management is a state subject. Drought management is a state subject. � The role of Central Government is limited to The role of Central Government is limited to responding to the request of the state responding to the request of the state governments governments � However, state governments often depend However, state governments often depend on the central government for assistance on the central government for assistance on the central government for assistance on the central government for assistance 7
Drought Response! Drought Response! State Level (E.G. Rajasthan) State Level (E.G. Rajasthan) District Collectors Declaration of assess & report Constitute: drought affected situation to Relief CM’s Committee for relief districts districts Dept Wk 1-4 Reactivate district & block Wk 4 2 nd Week of July 02 level relief committees Wk 4 Central Request Central team Wk 9 Govt for help assess assess damage Wk 7 Wk 6 Wk 5 State level Starts relief work by Submit relief memo to action plan employment, food Central Govt prepared by & fodder etc relief dept CWWG Central Relief Commissioner Central Relief Commissioner Chairman Chairman Identifies drought IMD IMD Monsoon forecast Monsoon forecast Eco & Stat Advisor Eco & Stat Advisor Market indicators Market indicators Central Water Commission Central Water Commission Water in reservoirs Water in reservoirs Crop Specialists Crop Specialists Crop cond. & prospects Crop cond. & prospects Remedy advocacy Agrl Input Supply Divisions Agrl Input Supply Divisions Supply & demand Supply & demand National Emergency Agrl Extension Specialists Agrl Extension Specialists Field level farm operations Field level farm operations Action Plan Min of Power Min of Power Electricity for pumping GW Electricity for pumping GW Min of Petroleum Min of Petroleum Diesel for pumping GW Diesel for pumping GW ICAR ICAR Technology transfer Technology transfer Secretary Drought Rep to Central (DAC, MoA) Monitoring & response Monitoring & response Govt Ministries, Depts, & States System Minister of Agriculture Drought Cabinet Secretary Prime Minister Secretary to PM 8
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