Presentation for the 5GAA Socio-economic benefits of Cellular V2X 08 February 2018 • Tom Rebbeck & Hugues-Antoine Lacour (Analysys Mason) 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
Contents 2 Context for the study Research findings Cost–benefit analysis Results About Analysys Mason and SBD Automotive 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
Context for the study 3 The purpose of the study was to assess the socio-economic benefits of C-V2X ▪ Vehicle to everything (V2X) will enable communication between vehicles (V2V), and between vehicles and infrastructure (V2I): – potential to provide enhanced information, complementing on-board sensors, enabling operation over a longer range ▪ C-V2X is designed to deliver V2X, with two modes of communication: – a direct vehicle-to-vehicle mode (‘ PC5 ’), for V2V/V2I – a network communications interface, for vehicle-to-network (V2N) communication via mobile networks (‘ Uu ’) ▪ A short-range technology, IEEE 802.11p, is also designed to offer V2V/V2I services ▪ We were asked to examine qualitative evidence, and perform quantitative analysis to compare the net benefits of C-V2X with those of IEEE 802.11p, with a focus on deployment in Europe 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
Scope of the study 4 There were three main elements to the study 1 Conduct We interviewed 5GAA member companies, to gather primary research evidence on planned C-V2X deployment, business on C-V2X models and cost assumptions deployment 2 We gathered published evidence about Consider C-V2X deployment (and its evolution to 5G) in Europe, qualitative including trials, deployment plans, potential business evidence cases and socio-economic benefits 3 We developed scenarios and a cost–benefit model Develop cost–benefit comparing C-V2X with IEEE 802.11p for V2V/I/N/P deployment in Europe analysis 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
Contents 5 Context for the study Research findings Cost–benefit analysis Results About Analysys Mason and SBD Automotive 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
Research findings 6 C-V2X benefits include its evolution path to 5G, and potential for rapid economies of scale [1] C-V2X will evolve to facilitate new capability Future-proof , in the 5G era. In the meantime, the dual providing a modes of LTE C-V2X meet all the progression to 5G requirements of the automotive industry V2P may be needed for fully automated Supports cars in urban areas. Although there are V2P doubts that V2P can be achieved with IEEE 802.11p, V2P can be enabled using communication LTE smartphones (either via Uu, or PC5) Business models leveraging the multiple modes of C-V2X could include infotainment, A wide range traffic information, real-time mapping, of business telematics and data analytics. Network- models are based data analytics opportunities also possible exist (using data gathered via both Uu and PC5 interfaces) 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
Research findings 7 C-V2X benefits include its evolution path to 5G, and potential for rapid economies of scale [2] Many automotive OEMs believe C-V2X Economies of will be less expensive to implement than scale will develop IEEE 802.11p (and cheaper than a combination of IEEE 802.11p for V2V, more rapidly plus cellular for V2N) V2V and V2N This same integration between V2V and modules can be cellular is not expected for DSRC/ ITS-G5, which will need dual/multiple combined in a chipsets in vehicles compared to single C-V2X potential for a single C-V2X chipset chipset 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
Research findings 8 We identified that C-V2X commercialisation is imminent, with several trials underway [1] Real-time Demonstrated on DT’s LTE network with Deutsche Telekom (DT) , Continental, Fraunhofer, Nokia V2N2V MEC technology (Nov-15); and Nokia Networks (<20ms latency) Networks in China (Nov-16) Audi , DT, Huawei, Toyota, other C-V2X Technical LTE-based field trial (Jul-16) automotive OEMs Formed Connected Vehicle to Everything Audi , Ericsson, Qualcomm, of Tomorrow (ConVeX) consortium C-V2X SWARCO Traffic Systems, (Jan-17) to demonstrate C-V2X (3GPP University of Kaiserslautern Release 14) Ericsson , BMW, Deutsche Bahn, Formed 5G-Connected Mobility DT, Telefónica Deutschland, Vodafone, TU Dresden 5G Lab consortium (Nov-16) to develop real- C-V2X Germany, Federal Highway world application environment for 5G- Research Institute (BASt), Federal based C-V2X Regulatory Agency (BNetzA) LTE-based trial (Feb-17); aims to C-V2X Vodafone , Bosch, Huawei demonstrate very low latency, and (direct V2V) differences from IEEE802.11 solutions 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
Research findings 9 We identified that C-V2X commercialisation is imminent, with several trials underway [2] First phase (Feb-2017) tested use cases. Will ‘Towards 5G’ partnership C-V2X demonstrate use of a network slice to isolate (Ericsson, Orange, PSA Group, Qualcomm) C-V2X from MBB and use cases for C-V2X/5G UK Connected Intelligent C-V2X and Launched to provide a real-world testing Transport Environment IEEE 802.11p environment for V2X (Feb-17) (Vodafone, Jaguar LandRover) National Intelligent Connected Formed in 2016 to test connected cars, Vehicle Testing Demonstration facilitate R&D, test and certify connected C-V2X Base , Shanghai (China Mobile vehicle technology. Shanghai is planning a Communications, SAIC Motor, 100km 2 intelligent vehicle network Huawei) Part of Connected Vehicle Safety Pilot. Has Michigan, USA (Ford Motor C-V2X Company, Qualcomm) tested automated cars using LTE direct mode C-V2X and Will trial connectivity solutions on Qualcomm’s 5G showcase trials , South IEEE 802.11p connected car platform in 1H 2018 Korea (LG Electronics, Qualcomm) San Diego , Regional Proving Will demonstrate the cost efficiencies of Ground (AT&T, Ford, Nokia, C-V2X, and synergies between deployment of C-V2X Qualcomm, supported by the San 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence cellular base stations and RSUs Diego Association of Governments)
Contents 10 Context for the study Research findings Cost–benefit analysis Results About Analysys Mason and SBD Automotive 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
Cost–benefit analysis 11 We modelled four scenarios, capturing different V2V/I technology choices � Automotive OEMs implement V2X in different timeframes, with Scenario 1: some adopting IEEE 802.11p for V2V/I and others C-V2X � With limited incentive to replace roadside infrastructure, V2I is Base case delayed (but C-V2X uses V2N) Scenario 2: � We assume that an EC mandate for C-ITS services to be 2020 EC supported in all new vehicle types from 2020 drives initial adoption mandate on of IEEE 802.11p � V2I requires extensive roadside infrastructure upgrades V2V/V2I (11p) � An EC mandate for support of C-ITS services in new vehicle types Scenario 3: in 2023 rather than 2020 allows PC5 to develop, and automotive 2023 EC OEMs adopt this for V2V/V2I mandate on � V2I requires roadside infrastructure upgrades, but synergies within V2V/V2I (PC5) C-V2X (Uu) are exploited Scenario 4: � Similar to Scenario 1 we assume automotive OEMs make different Equitable technology choices for V2V/I, but with higher PC5 adoption due to greater certainty on spectrum access 5.9GHz use 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
Cost–benefit analysis 12 We estimated C-V2X benefits using inputs on vehicles sold, take-up and unitary V2X benefit In-vehicle % of vehicles % of vehicles Vehicles sold by Vehicles sold by systems sold addressable sold fitted with vehicle bundle service bundle + by V2X V2X systems segment technology take-up # of vehicles # of vehicles # of vehicles sold # of vehicles # of vehicles sold sold/in use by in use/sold in addressable by sold with V2X by V2X service service bundle EU per year V2X systems bundle by technology Unitary # of vehicles in use by service benefits bundle by technology % impact by service Total impact by bundle per vehicle category of by category of benefits by benefits technology Total benefits by Monetary value of category of impact by benefits by category of benefits technology Total benefits by 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence technology
Cost–benefit analysis 13 V2X costs by technology are based on unit costs & timetable for infrastructure/in-vehicle roll-out Infrastructure Infrastructure unitary costs take-up % of RSUs Split of V2X- Capex/opex replaced/ enabled per V2X- % replacement deployed with replaced/ enabled rate of RSUs V2X new RSUs replaced/new capabilities by tech. RSU by tech. RSU installed # of RSUs # of V2X- # of V2X- base replaced/year enabled Costs of enabled replaced/ RSUs by replaced/new Growth in RSU # new RSUs new RSUs technology RSUs installed base deployed/year by tech. In-vehicle system unitary costs Capex/opex # of vehicles Costs of of in-vehicle sold/in use by in-vehicle Total costs by systems per service bundle systems by technology vehicle by by technology technology technology 2012639-63 | Commercial in confidence
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