Products: Trends and Changes Dmitry Prikhodko Economist Investment - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global Consumption of Food and Agricultural Products: Trends and Changes Dmitry Prikhodko Economist Investment Centre Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN

World food consumption is growing World Food Energy Consumption (kcal/cap/day, 1993-2013) +10% 2900 2850 2800 2750 2700 2650 2600 Source: FAOSTAT

The global food availability gap is closing Per capita daily calorie supply in the EU and LDCs (Least Developed Countries), 1993-2013 4000 +4% 3500 The difference in per capita 3000 food consumption between +20% developed and developing 2500 countries is diminishing. 2000 1500 1000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 EU LDC Source: FAOSTAT

Drivers of change: Income growth Population growth Projected population increase (2018-2028) by country income level Compound annual growth rate of 2018 2028 national income per capita (%) 9 8.4 bi billi lion on Billions 7.6 .6 bil billion on 8 6 +4% 7 5 6 +4% 5 4 4 3 % 3 + 14 % 2 2 1 +28% 0 1 High-income countries Upper-middle-income countries 0 1973-1985 1985-1997 1997-2009 2009-2012 Lower-middle-income countries Source: Low-income countries Developed World Developing UN ESA Source: World Bank

Drivers of change: urbanization Projected 2030 urbanization level by world region (%) 90 +3% +3% +3% 80 +1% 70 +6 +8% 60 +7 50 40 30 20 10 0 NORTHERN LATIN AMERICA EUROPE OCEANIA WORLD ASIA AFRICA AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Source: 2000 2015 2030 UN ESA

However, consumption growth will slow down Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017

Major regional consumption trends • Strong increase in meat consumption in Sub Saharan Africa and South East Asia • Significant increase in dairy consumption in South Asia, but also to a lesser extent in North Africa and Southeast Asia • Significant increase of the human consumption of cereals in Sub Saharan Africa and South Asia • An increase in maize and protein meal consumption to meet growing meat demand in East Asia, Southeast Asia and North Africa Source: OECD- FAO Agri�ultural Outlook, author’s �al�ulatio�s

World wheat imports: 22 mln tonnes/year by 2026 Asia: remain the main wheat importing region 1/3 of the increase in import will be accounted for by countries in Sub Saharan Africa Wheat consumption forecast in select Wheat imports forecast in select world regions (1000 MT) world regions 450,000 +8.8 million t 90,000 +32.8 million 400,000 (+12%) 80,000 t (+9%) 350,000 70,000 +6.7 million 300,000 t (+3%) 60,000 250,000 +3.6 million 200,000 50,000 (+10%) +4.5 million t +450,000 t +6.4 150,000 40,000 (+15%) (+1%) million(+13 +6.3 million t + 2 million t +7 million t 100,000 30,000 %) (+35%) (+9%) (+30%) 50,000 20,000 0 10,000 Asia OECD North Africa Latin Sub Saharan countries America and Africa 0 the Asia North Africa OECD Sub Saharan Latin America Caribbean Countries Africa and the Caribbean 2017 2026 2017 2026 Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

Countries with substantial increase in wheat imports by 2026 Forecast wheat imports in major importing countries in 2026 Numbers: projected volume of wheat imports in 2026, mln MT. Colours: projected increase in annual imports from 2017 • Sub-Saharan Africa alone will have to import 6 million tonnes. Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

Consumption of meat and dairy will increase globally Pou oultry ry meat consumption: expected increase Global consumption is set to increase by 2026: Pou oultry ry +12% Beef Bee +10% Por ork +9% Dair Dairy + 20% Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

Meat and dairy demand will result in higher maize demand Maize animal feed consumption by region (million tonnes), 2017 vs 2026 800 Millions 673 million T +20 700 580 million T 600 +13% 500 +20% 400 +16% 300 200 +16% 100 0 2017 2026 Asia North America Latin America & Caribbean Europe Africa Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

Major maize importers and imports increase (2017 vs 2026) Numbers: projected volume of maize imports in 2026, mln MT Colours: projected increase in yearly imports in absolute value. Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

Meat a�d dairy �o�su�ptio� i��rease → The example of Indonesia high igher dem emand for maize and protei ein meals ls. Indonesia: Consumption of main food products, 2017-2026 (million tonnes) Indonesia: Consumption of meat and fresh 60 dairy products, 2017-2026 (million tonnes) Million T +12% +18% 2.5 50 Million T 2.0 40 +17% 30 1.5 +22% +26% 20 +33% 1.0 +11% +30% +30% 10 +20% 0.5 0 0.0 Poultry meat Fresh dairy Beef and veal (rtc) products (cwe) 2017 2026 2017 2026 Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

Sur Surplus valu lue Moving Up Up the Valu lue Cha Chain (20 (2018)

Adding value: global trade in processed cereals and oilseeds is growing World Trade: Cereals and Oilseeds vs Processed Products (value in USD billions) 180 Milliarden 160 +9% 140 120 100 +19% 80 60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Non-Processed Processed Processed: milling industry products, pasta, bakery goods, bread, cereal based feed Non Non-processed: wheat, rye, barley, oats, maize, rice, sorghum, buckwheat, millet, soya beans, linseed, rape or colza seed, sunflower seed Source: Trade Data Monitor

World livestock numbers grow, so is processed feed trade USD value of world cereal and oilseed-based feed Number of cattle and pigs (million heads) exports (USD billions) 320 Millionen 1.8 Milliarden 300 1.6 1.4 280 1.2 260 1 0.8 240 0.6 220 0.4 0.2 200 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cattle Pigs Source: own calculations based on the Trade Data Monitor Source: FAOSTAT

Ukraine: exports of processed cereals and oilseeds growing faster than non-processed ones Ukraine Exp xports: Ce Cereals and Oils ilseeds vs Processed Products (U (USD bill illions 10 Value in billion USD 9 -2% 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 17% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Non-Processed (value in USD) Processed Source: own calculations based on Trade Data Monitor

…�ut there is still a lot of pote�tial for growth Share of processed and non-processed grain and oilseeds : Ukraine exports vs World trade (share in %) 100% 8% 90% 38% 80% 70% 60% 50% 92% 40% 62% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ukraine World Source: Trade Data Non-Processed Processed Mo�itor, author’s calculations

Poland and Turkey: importing calories, exporting value +$10 billion net trade balance +$2 billion net trade balance Source: Global Trade Atlas, FAO and own calculations

Where does Ukraine stand? In 2017, almost ¾ of Ukrainian agri-food exports were cereals, oilseeds and vegetable oils. Ukraine agri-food exports in 2017 (USD 18 billion) Vegetable oil industry residues usually used as feed (such as oilcakes, pellets, etc.) 19% accounted for 6% of agri-food exports or 2% 1% 36% around USD 1 billion. 6% However, processed cereal products for human consumption remained marginal at 11% 3% or under USD 500 million. 25% Cereals Animal Or Vegetable Fats, Oils Etc. & Waxes Oil Seeds Etc.; Misc Grain, Seed, Fruit, Plant Etc Food Industry Residues & Waste; Prep Animal Feed Prep Cereal, Flour, Starch Or Milk; Bakers Wares Milling Products; Malt; Starch; Inulin; Wht Gluten Other Source: Trade Data Monitor

Developing exports of value-added products ASSO SSOCI CIATI TION «UKRANIAN MILERS»

Thank you! Dmitry.Prikhodko@fao.org