COP market situation 27/05/09 AGRI C5 Cereals 2 C5-Arable crops - PDF document

C5-Arable crops Unit COP market situation 27/05/09 AGRI C5

Cereals 2 C5-Arable crops Unit

IGC (world market) 2007/08 2007/08 2008/09 2008/09 2009/10 2009/10 Wheat 2005/06 2006/07 (est) (forecast) (forecast) Production 621 598 609 688 651 Trade 110 111 110 122 112 Consumption Consumption 625 625 611 611 614 614 642 642 642 642 Stocks 135 122 116 162 171 5 major exporters 53 38 26 47 53 2007/08 2007/08 2008/09 2008/09 2009/10 2009/10 Maize 2005/06 2006/07 (est) (forecast) (forecast) Production 696 708 787 783 778 Trade 79 87 101 79 83 Consumption Consumption 700 700 724 724 771 771 773 773 791 791 Stocks 132 115 132 142 129 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Total cereals Total cereals 2005/06 2005/06 2006/07 2006/07 (est) (est) (forecast) (forecast) (forecast) (forecast) Production 1604 1585 1687 1784 1727 Trade 215 222 239 230 221 Consumption 1617 1627 1681 1719 1732 Stocks Stocks 319 319 277 277 284 284 349 349 344 344 5 major exporters 143 99 91 122 121 3

USDA (world market) WASDE production p use stocks 2009/10 2009/10 estimates ti t (12 may) Mio t wheat h t 657.6 (was 657 6 642 8 642.8 (635.7) 181 9 181.9 (167.1) 682.7 last campaign) maize 785.1 (787.8) 796.5 (778.6) 128.2 (139.6) 4

EU cereal prod estimates Total cereals EU DG AGRI COCERAL Stratégie-Grains 2009 harvest forecasts 289,2 mt 284,4 mt 289,7 mt (May 09) (March 2009) (May 2009) 2008 harvest estimates 311,8 mt 310,6 mt 312,0 mt (April 2009) (March 2009) (May 2009) 5

quota ations in US SD and EUR R 27/12 /12/2006 100 200 300 400 400 500 25/02 0 /02/2007 26/04 /04/2007 € Dlvd Rouen (11-12, 5% protein) $ US SRW FOB Gulf 25/06 /06/2007 24/08 Comparison EU/USA Comparison EU/USA EU Wheat prices since 1/1/2007 /08/2007 23/10 /10/2007 22/12 /12/2007 20/02 /02/2008 20/04 /04/2008 19/06 /06/2008 18/08 /08/2008 17/10 € UK feed FOB € US SRW FOB Gulf /10/2008 16/12 /12/2008 14/02 /02/2009 15/04 /04/2009 153 153 133 144 210 6

€/t 110 130 150 170 170 190 210 210 230 250 250 270 90 Week 1 Week 5 Week 9 Week 13 Week 17 EU Barley prices since 01/01/2007 Week 21 Week 25 Week 29 Week 33 Week 37 Week 41 Week 45 Week 49 Week 1 Week 5 Week 10 Week 14 Week 18 Week 22 Week 26 Week 30 Week 34 Week 38 FOB UK feed Dlvd Rouen feed Week 42 Week 46 Week 50 Week 2 Week 6 Week 10 Week 14 Week 18 112 134 134 7

EU maize prices since 1/4/2007 350 300 /t D and EUR/ 250 200 200 ons in USD 185 150 146 137 137 quotatio 100 132 50 0 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 1 1 3 3 4 4 6 6 8 8 0 0 2 2 1 1 3 3 5 5 7 7 9 9 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 4 / / / / / 1 1 / / / / / 1 / / / 4 1 8 6 6 1 6 1 7 2 7 1 9 / / / 2 2 1 1 6 3 2 2 1 1 6 2 1 Bordeaux (FR) Budapest (HU) USYC Gulf FOB eur USYC Gulf FOB $ 8

Oilseeds and protein crops 9 C5-Arable crops Unit

Composition of EU protein feed demand 2007 2008 feed demand, 2007-2008 2007/08 Field Beans + Lupins; protein content 0,5% Corn Gluten Feed; Dry Fodder; 3,5% 2,5% DDGS; 1,5% DDGS; 1,5% Other oilseeds; 1,2% Field Peas; 1,0% Palm Kernel; 2,0% Sunflower; 5,3% Rapeseed; 15,5% Meal soybean; 67,1% 10

Evolution of protein products consumption consumption 40 1993/94 / 1994/95 / 1995/96 / million T 35 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 30 30 1999/2000 1999/2000 2000/01 2000/01 2001/02 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 25 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 20 15 15 10 5 0 11 Meal Rapeseed Sunflower Palm Field Peas Field Lupins DDGS Corn soybean Kernel Beans Gluten F d

Soybean meal y 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09F Production 10.762 11.500 11.816 11.198 Imports extra-UE I t t UE 23 746 23.746 23 443 23.443 24.720 24 720 23 850 23.850 Exports extra-UE 678 525 362 346 Consumption 33.821 34.409 36.144 34.700 Balance Balance -23 068 23.068 -22 918 22.918 -24 358 24.358 -23 504 23.504 12

Rapeseed meal p 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09F Production 8571 9341 10743 11262 Imports extra-UE 100 114 115 127 Exports extra-UE p 46 80 179 203 Consumption 8611 9371 10680 10840 Balance Balance -54 54 -34 34 64 64 76 76 13

Sunflower meal 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09F Production 2.758 2.855 2.242 2797 Imports extra-UE 1.985 1.831 1.587 2000 Exports extra-UE 204 148 58 127 Consumption 4.539 4.538 3.771 4670 Balance -1781 -1683 -1529 -1873 14

Origins of EU meal import 2007/08 (000 t) import 2007/08 (000 t) 30.000 n d s T h o u s a n 25.000 20.000 Brazil 15.000 10.000 Argentina 5.000 Argentina, Ukraine, Russia 0 0 Soymeal Sunseed meal Rapemeal 15 C5-Arable crops Unit

Oilseed prices 1996-2009 (US $/t, cif EU ports) (US $/t cif EU ports) 1200 So beans Bra ilian cif Rotterdam Soybeans, Brazilian, cif Rotterdam 1000 Sunseed, EU, cif Amsterdam Rapeseed, 00, Europe, cif Hamburg 800 600 350 415 400 380 200 200 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 16 v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a j j j j j j j j j j j j j j j j j C5-Arable crops Unit

Rapeseed/wheat price ratio (MATIF) price ratio (MATIF) 2,6 2,4 2,2 wheat price 2,05 2,0 Rapeseed price / w 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,4 1,2 3/01/2005 3/01/2006 3/01/2007 3/01/2008 3/01/2009 17

Evolution of oilseeds meal prices meal prices 400 347 €/t 350 300 317 €/t 250 180 €/t 180 €/t €/t 200 150 132 €/t 100 COLZA Départ usine ROUEN p 50 50 TSOL Départ usine BORDEAUX/SETE SOJA Disponible LORIENT SOJA 48% BRESIL CAF ROTT. 0 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 7 7 0 0 1 2 2 1 4 4 5 5 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 3 7 1 4 8 1 5 9 3 6 0 4 8 1 5 9 2 6 2 6 9 3 7 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 18

Pea, wheat and soybean meal prices 2004-2009 meal prices 2004-2009 400 €/t 350 Soybeans meal 330 300 Field peas Field peas 250 200 194 Feed wheat 150 146 100 19 juil-04 janv-05 juil-05 janv-06 juil-06 janv-07 juil-07 janv-08 juil-08 janv-09 Source : UNIP C5-Arable crops Unit

$ per ton 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 oct t-00 févr r-01 juin n-01 oct t-01 févr r-02 juin n-02 oct t-02 févr r-03 Prices juin n-03 oct t-03 févr r-04 Distillers' dried juin n-04 oct t-04 févr r-05 juin n-05 Corn Gluten Corn Gluten oct t-05 févr r-06 juin n-06 oct t-06 févr r-07 juin n-07 oct t-07 févr r-08 20

Thank you for your attention 21 C5-Arable crops Unit