Using Google Trends Data Seth Stephens-Davidowitz October 1, 2014 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Using Google Trends Data Seth Stephens-Davidowitz October 1, 2014 Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 1 / 22

Google Trends Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 2 / 22

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 3 / 22

“Jewish” Search Rate Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 4 / 22

“Mormon” Search Rate Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 5 / 22

Huge Advantage of Google Search Data Social desirability bias People lie to surveys People very honest on Google Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 6 / 22

1. Cost of racism on black candidate. Racist search rate, 2004-2007: 200 DMAs. Difference between Obama and Kerry vote shares. Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 7 / 22

1. Cost of racism on black candidate Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 8 / 22

1. Cost of racism on black candidate Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 9 / 22

1. Cost of racism on black candidate. Conclusions Survey data: Racism cost Obama 1-2 % of vote. 1 Google data: Racism cost Obama 3-5 % of vote. 2 Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 10 / 22

2. Predicting turnout (and possibly elections) Searches for “vote” in October Compared to 4 years earlier. Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 11 / 22

.15 NC GA .1 SC MS IN ∆ ln(Turnout Rate) CO MD AL RI .05 NJ AZ MI MA MO IL NM MT NV FL CT NY PA NH HI TN TX ID KS OH LA 0 NE WA MN IA KY AK AR WI ND −.05 ME OK WY UT SD OR WV 2 = 0.21 R −.1 −.4 −.2 0 .2 .4 ∆ ln(Google Vote Search) Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 12 / 22

.3 LA NC MS .2 SC GA AL WA ln(Turnout Rate) WV NV .1 NH CO OK UT IL FL AZ HI KY TX IA ND ME NY AK IN MA OR NM 0 MD CT WI AR KS OH PA ID MN NJ −.1 SD MO WY RI MI MT TN −.2 2 = 0.43 R NE −.5 0 .5 1 ∆ ln(Google Vote Search) Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 13 / 22

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3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment Compare child maltreatment rates to exposure to recession. Exposure to recession: Unemployment(2009+2010) - Unemployment(2006+2007) Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 15 / 22

3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment .4 AK DE AZ DC IN .2 VT MS WI KY OR AR NE MA VA CO KS MT SC SD IA CA MO 0 OK TX NM NH MN AL WA UT RI ME −.2 WV NV FL −.4 t = −2.31 −.6 GA 0 2 4 6 8 10 ∆ Unemployment Rate Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 16 / 22

3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment 2 VT DC NV TN 1 DE RI NY SC WI CO ID ∆ Fatality Rate IA IL AZ FL VA MN SD ME KS LA OH CT ND TX PA 0 NM GA OR IN WA HI MT KY NJ OK UT MO AR NH AL −1 NE t = 1.74 −2 WV 0 2 4 6 8 10 ∆ Unemployment Rate Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 17 / 22

3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 18 / 22

3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment DC .1 AL KY OR FL CT SC SD WI WY RI NV WV NM OH MD NC 0 IA LA MS PA HI MO CO WA OK TN ID ∆ ln(Google) MT AZ UT NY TX MI AR MA NJ −.1 NE ME IL GA MN KS IN −.2 ND NH t = 3.03 AK −.3 0 2 4 6 8 10 ∆ Unemployment Rate Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 19 / 22

3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 20 / 22

3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment Conclusions CPS data: Great Recession decreased child abuse. 1 Google data (+ mortality data): Great Recession increased 2 child abuse. Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 21 / 22

Conclusions Anonymous, aggregate Google searches excellent new data for social scientists. Google searches particularly valuable for socially sensitive topics. More of my work: sethsd.com Seth Stephens-Davidowitz Using Google Trends Data 22 / 22