Faculty of Business and Economics , Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst Interaction of sector coupling technologies with further flexibility options in energy systems with www.ee2.biz different PV-Wind shares Christoph Zöphel ENERDAY, 12 th of April 2019
Agenda 1. Motivation 2. Development of high RES scenarios with different wind-PV share in central western Europe 3. Model approach including different flexibility options and sector coupling technologies 4. Results without further restrictions for sector coupling technologies 5. Influence of enforced sector coupling with varying flexibility 6. Summary 12 th of April 2019 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics 2
Future European renewable energy expansion mainly based on fluctuating renewable energy Differences in the electricity generation (seasonal) mo monthly me means 2014 characteristics for wind and PV 2,5 PV 2,0 Availability • normalized power Wind 1,5 onshore Temporal • Wind 1,0 offshore PV is correlating daily with demand 0,5 • Demand 0,0 Wind is correlating seasonally with • Month of a year demand Me Mean an hour urly Me Mean an seas ason onal al Spatial • correl elation on correl elation on Day-night dependency of PV generation • PV PV 0,78 0,98 results in high spatial correlation Wind Stronger local variability of wind • 0,25 0,72 Ons nsho hore generation leads to spatial balancing Wind nd effects 0,29 0,75 off ffsho hore Additionally, future RES expansion not only driven by techno-economical factors, but also by challenges regarding land use and acceptance 12 th of April 2019 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics 3
Varying future PV shares in Literature as basis for scenario development Studies included with Europe as observed region • Scenarios for the years beyond 2030 • Data for installed capacities or generation • PV V shar share in in RE RES S gen eneration mix ix Scenario Sce PV PV-Wind shar share TYNDP Scenario DG 2040 n = 26 Hig igh PV 50:50 Roadmap 2050 Greenpeace Revolution Scenario 40:60 (100 % RES) PV share EU Reference Scenario 2050 REF REF 30:70 Europe 2017 (EEA (2017)) BMWi long-term scenarios, 20:80 Base scenario 2050 Eurelectric Power Choices Hig igh Win ind 10:90 Scenario 2050 12 th of April 2019 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics 4
Weather- and GIS-Data based optimal wind and PV expansion up to share of 80% of today’s electricity demand in CWE GIS based restriction of raster areas MERRA 2 weather data for - Nature reserve Solar radiation & temperature • - Height and slope Wind speed and roughness • + urban areas and meadows Transformation in PV and wind Land use potentials for wind electricity generation time and PV series RES potentials for 17 countries (1481 raster à 0,5 ° x 0,625 ° / 68 x 68 km) Optimal wind and PV expansion for each of the scenarios and countries Objective: Minimizing specific investment costs Restriction: - Wind and PV share of 80% of today’s CWE electricity demand (~ 2,700 TWh) - Restriction of land use - Country specific minimal and maximal RES expansion 12 th of April 2019 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics 5
Resulting flexibility need in the scenarios More than 1000 GW fluctuating Inst stalled d cap apac acities • RES in each scenario 1600 65 1400 1200 386 92 Capacity [GW] wind offshore 1000 121 546 Lower availability of PV results in • 800 wind onshore 600 PV higher capacity requirements 723 1010 400 584 200 203 0 High PV REF High Wind Small differences in positive • residual load peak Re Resi sidual load d dur duration on cur curves ves at 80 80 % % RE RES sha hare acr cross all model elled ed co count untries es 400 200 Increasing amount surplus 0 • High PV [GW] energy and negative peak with -200 REF -400 increasing PV share due to feed High Wind in characteristics -600 -800 [Geordnete Stunden] 12 th of April 2019 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics 6
Model based analysis of optimal combinations of flexibility options Input Modelling Output 17 countries Endogenous Investment • Infrastructure Technology specific power plant • (Greenfield) Installed conventional and • characteristic renewable capacities 3 storages, 6 DSM processes • Installed storage and DSM • Objective: Heat pumps, E-vehicles, Electricity market model (ELTRAMOD) capacities • Cost minimization of electrolyser NTC-expansion • investments European transmission capacity • Investment in Power-to-X • Temporal resolution: (NTC) technologies Cluster based selection of Investment costs • 10 representative weeks Supply Side RES capacity and generation • p profiles per country Optimal flexibility mix in q t=n-1 Prices for fuel und emission • an electricity market Costs of flexibility options • perspective Dispatch Technology specific dispatch Demand Side • Hourly electricity demand per • Objective: energy country (ENTSO-E 2018) Cost minimal dispatch of Export-Import flows • Hourly district heat demand • fixed flexible capacities Integrated/curtailed RES • profiles per country CO 2 -emissions • Hourly charging and parking • Hourly resolution Dispatch costs • profile for e-vehicles per country for an entire year 12 th of April 2019 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics 7
System boundaries and selected sectors coupling technologies Bot ottom-up elec ectric icit ity y mar market mod model el Simplif lifie ied representatio tion of f se sele lected ene nergy y de demand se sectors Heating Heat storages Fluctuating demand RES CHP Dispatchable power Gas boiler District heating plants (natural gas) Heat pump Steam Electrolyser Electricity Hydrogen demand Electricity reforming demand sector of industry (natural gas) ICE BEV Passenger (gasoline) Storages Transport / DSM Benchmark- process Import/Export Vehicle kilometres 12 th of April 2019 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics 8
Trade-off between storages and NTC in case of unrestricted endogenous investment in flexibility options High correlation of RES • Installed capacities generation results in lowest 800 NTC NTC expansion and highest 700 installed storage capacity in 600 DSM 195 315 500 High PV scenarios 253 [GW] 57 Storages 400 57 57 184 Lowest installed conventional 300 • 96 152 Renew. 200 capacities in REF scenario due Power plants 148 152 Base scenarios 100 149 to storage and NTC mix Conv. Power 74 54 0 12 plants High PV Ref High Wind Investment in full DSM potential • to balance shorter term Installed sector coupling technologies fluctuations 70 BEV (charging Only endogenous investments 60 • power) 50 in heat pumps due to high 40 Electrolyser [GW] opportunity costs of benchmark 64 63 30 61 process 20 Heat pump 10 0 High PV Ref High Wind 12 th of April 2019 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics 9
Goal to decarbonise energy system might enforce electrification of parts of other sector Basic scenarios No restrictions for energy supply by PtX Besides heat pumps no further endogenous investments in Power-to-X (PtX) technologies No electricity market based incentives for sector coupling within scenario framework Enforced sector coupling Exogenous restrictions for energy supply by PtX with low and high flexibility Power-to-Heat Power-to-Vehicle Power-to-Gas Heat supply by heat 50 % BEV for passenger 50 % of industries • • • pumps to cover 50% of transport hydrogen demand by district heat demand Charging power: 11 kW electrolysers • Additional electricity Additional electricity Additional electricity • • • demand: 242 TWh demand: 260 TWh demand: 195 TWh Low flexibility Without thermal energy Uncontrolled charging Maximal full load hours of • • • (LF) storages electrolysers High flexibility With thermal energy Bi-directional charging With hydrogen storages • • • (HF) storages 12 th of April 2019 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics 10
Enforced sector coupling influences investment in flexibility options differently Increase in electricity demand • Con onventional powe power pl plants ts Installed capacity 200 requires additional power plant 150 capacities [GW] base 100 Higher flexibility of PtX decreases • LF 50 need for additional power plants HF 0 High PV Ref High Wind Low flexibility of PtX technologies • Storages 200 slightly increases storage Installed capacity 150 capacities in most of the scenarios base [GW] 100 Significant reduction of storage • LF 50 requirements with highly flexible HF 0 sector coupling High PV Ref High Wind Small impact of sector coupling • NT NTC 400 technologies on NTC expansion Installed capacity 300 base [GW] 200 LF 100 HF 0 High PV Ref High Wind 12 th of April 2019 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics 11
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