Operational climate service Carlo Buontempo With contributions - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Operational climate service Carlo Buontempo With contributions from: Jean-Noël Thepaut, Dick Dee, Anca Brookshaw, Cedric Bergeron Climate Change ECMWF @carlo_tuitter ; Carlo.Buontempo@ecmwf.int

Fake Climate Change

Climate Change Operational

Climate Data Store – CDS Climate Change The CDS is designed as a distributed system , providing improved access to existing datasets through a unifjed web interface. It is ALL* free and unrestricted

Climate Change

Climate projections Climate Change Service: Providing users with timely access to climate change scenarios produced with state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP, CORDEX)

C3S seasonal forecasts - Introduction Climate Aim: to generate seasonal forecast products based on the best information Change available , to an operational schedule , and make them publicly available . • Issued every month on the 13 th (likely to be moved closer to the 10 th ) • Large ensembles (members: ~50 forecast, ~25 hindcast) • Common reference period (1993-2016) Output • on common horizontal resolution (1*1 degree) • ~30 single-level variables (every 6h or 24h) • 5 variables in pressure levels (every 12h) (11 levels from 925hPa to 10hPa)

Climate reanalysis: ERA5 Climate Change • Atmosphere/land/wave parameters • Atmosphere/land/wave parameters • 31 km global resolution, 137 levels • 31 km global resolution, 137 levels • Hourly output from 1979 onward • Hourly output from 1979 onward • Using 2016 ECMWF forecast system • Using 2016 ECMWF forecast system • Using improved input observations • Using improved input observations • Ensemble data assimilation method • Ensemble data assimilation method • Uncertainty estimates for all ECVs • Uncertainty estimates for all ECVs

Essential Climate Variables Climate Change

E v a l u a t i o n a n d Q u a l i t y C o n t r o l Climate Change Quality of data • Assessments • User guidance • Gaps and limitations d a ta q u a lity Quality of tools • Fitness for purpose • Best practices Quality of service • Speed, responsiveness • System availability, …

Climate Change

Climate Data Store - implementation Climate • Ongoing physical implementation : Change – On-Premises Private Cloud : • CloudFerro – 34 compute servers x 2 cpu x 12 cores@ 2.2 GHz and 192 GB RAM per server – 4 compute server x 2 CPUs x 8 cores @ 2.6 Ghz and 64 GB RAM per server – 100 TB SSD and 900 TB HDD Phase I

T raceability of simple applications Climate Change Fractions of time the wind speed is less than 6 m/s and the significant wave height is less than 1.5 m in ERA5 hourly record for 2012

State of the climate Climate Change

Data is not information without users and context: co-design in practice … Climate Change Irrigation in Italy Brewing beer in the Netherlands Freshwater supply in Spain Lake water quality Sweden Flooding in Slovakia Sweden

http://ecem.wemcouncil.org/ Integrating climate and energy scenarios to Climate learn how well prepared our infrastructure is to Change cope with the climate of the future. Will the renewable dominated energy mix of the future able to cope with the expected change in the energy demand profile? Using a combination of historical data, reanalysis, seasonal predictions and climate projections the SIS contracts demonstrated how will be possible to address some of these questions through the CDS. Contract led by A. Troccoli UEA

I n d i c a t o r s , g l o b a l a g r i c u l t u r e c o n t r a c t Climate Climate • Biologically Efgective Degree Days, Growing Season Length, Maximum number of Change Change consecutive dry days, Maximum number of consecutive frost days (Cold spell), Cold Spell Duration Index , Maximum number of consecutive summer days (Hot spell), Maximum number of consecutive wet days (Wet spell), Mean of diurnal temperature range, Frost Days, Ice Days, Heavy precipitation days, Very heavy precipitation days, Precipitation sum, Wet Days, Simple Daily Intensity Index (Mean precipitation per wet day), Sumer Days, Mean of daily mean temperature, Mean of daily minimum temperature, Minimum value of the daily minimum temperature, Maximum value of the daily minimum temperature, Tropical nights, Mean of daily maximum temperature, Minimum value of daily maximum temperature, Maximum value of daily maximum temperature, Warm Spell Duration Index, Warm and wet days, AgERA5 wind speed, AgERA5 dewpoint temperature, AgERA5 air temperature, AgERA5 precipitation type, AgERA5 relative humidity, AgERA5 snow, AgERA5 solar radiation, AgERA5 cloud cover, AgERA5 precipitation, AgERA5 vapour pressure, Soybean development stage, Soybean T otal above-ground production, Soybean T otal weight storage organs (yield), Wheat development stage, Wheat T otal above-ground production, Wheat T otal weight storage organs (yield), Rice development stage, Rice T otal above-ground production, Rice T otal weight storage organs, (yield), Maize development stage, Maize T otal above- ground production, Maize T otal weight storage organs (yield), evapotranspiration 1 7

201 202 202 201 201 201 9 0 1 6 7 8 Proof of concept Operational Phase Proof of concept Operational Phase Climate Climate Agriclass Change Agriclass Change SWICCA SWICCA POC to Operations C3S Water (SMHI) C3S Water (SMHI) EDGE POC migration EDGE POC migration ECEM ECEM C3S Energy (WEMC) C3S Energy (WEMC) Clim4Energy Clim4Energy C3S Wind Storms (KNMI) C3S Wind Storms (KNMI) WISC WISC UrbanSIS UrbanSIS U R B A N CDS / T oolbox Present Previous C3S launched GA March 2017

201 202 202 201 201 201 9 0 6 Proof of concept 7 8 Operational Phase 1 Proof of concept Operational Phase Climate Climate Agriclass Agriclass Global Agriculture Global Agriculture Change Change (WenR) (WenR) Global Impacts Global Impacts Services (SMHI) Global (SMHI) Global Shipping Global Shipping (OSM) (OSM) European Fisheries (PML) European Fisheries (PML) FISHERIES European T ourism European T ourism (TEC) (TEC) European Services European Health European Health (VITO) (VITO) European Storm Surges European Storm Surges (Deltares) (Deltares) Previous C3S Present CDS / GA March T oolbox 2017 launched

Conclusions Climate • The scale of the climate challenge requires a step change in the way we produce Change and deal with climate information. • C3S has developed an operational infrastructure that makes simple for users to freely access an unprecedented amount of quality controlled climate data. • The climate data store come with a computational layer that allows users to define and run their climate-relevant product –or at least part thereteof- in the cloud, significantly reducing the need of downloading a large volume of data. • A series of exemplar applications which show how the infrastructure could be used to address specific issues are about to become publicly available. Yours could be next if you want… • It is (almost…) irrelevant whether it will be C3S or another programme but we MUST find a way to operationalise the development and delivery of climate services.

Questions? Climate Change climate.copernicus.eu For more info: copernicus-support@ecmwf.int Carlo.Buontempo@ecmwf.int Twitter: @carlo_tuitter