Climate change experiments Climate change experiments with a Hi- - res. climate model res. climate model with a Hi ～ current status and f uture plans ～ ～ current status and f uture plans ～ The K- -1 Japan Project Team 1 Japan Project Team * The K * A. Sumi 1 , M. Kimoto 1 , S. Emori 2 , H. Hasumi 1 , 3 , * A. Sumi 1 , M. Kimoto 1 , S. Emori 2 , H. Hasumi 1 T. Nozawa 3 , T. Nozawa , 2 , T. Nishimura 2 , T. Inoue 4 , F. Saito 1 , Ta. Suzuki 2 , T. Nishimura 2 , T. Inoue 4 , F. Saito 1 , Ta. Suzuki T. Ogura 3 3 , A. Abe Ouchi 1 1 , R. Ohgaito , R. Ohgaito 2 2 , T. Segawa , T. Segawa 2 2 , , A. Abe- -Ouchi , T. Ogura 2 , S. Hasegawa 2 , A. Oka 1 , T. Nagashima 3 , T. Sakamoto 2 , S. Hasegawa 2 , A. Oka 1 , T. Nagashima 3 , T. Sakamoto T. Yokohata 3 3 , N. Okada , N. Okada 3 3 , Ts. Suzuki , Ts. Suzuki 2 2 , and students , and students 1 1 T. Yokohata 1 Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), Univ. of Tokyo 1 Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), Univ. of Tokyo 2 Frontier Research System for Global Change (FRSGC) 2 Frontier Research System for Global Change (FRSGC) 3 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) 3 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) 4 Research Organization for Information Science & Technology (RIST) ST) 4 Research Organization for Information Science & Technology (RI
What is “ “The K The K- - 1 Project 1 Project ” ” ? ? What is � Joint project : CCSR + NIES + FRSGC � Joint project : CCSR + NIES + FRSGC � Funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, � Funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan Sports, Science and Technology of Japan � First item of Research Revolution 2002 � First item of Research Revolution 2002 � “ � “K Kyousei yousei Project Dai Project Dai 1 1 Kadai Kadai” ” in Japanese in Japanese � Develop a high � Develop a high- -resolution climate models for resolution climate models for the Earth Simulator the Earth Simulator � Contribute to the IPCC AR4 � Contribute to the IPCC AR4 � Understand dynamics of climate system � Understand dynamics of climate system
The Earth Simulator The Earth Simulator CTL:Cartridge Tape Library system Magnetic Disk system Electromagnetic Shield PN Cabinets I N Cabinets (65) (320) 65m (71yd) Double Floor f or cables Power Supply system Air Conditioning system 50m (55yd) Seismic I solation system
The CCSR/ NI ES/ FRSGC Coupled The CCSR/ NI ES/ FRSGC Coupled Ocean- - Atmosphere GCM f or the Earth Atmosphere GCM f or the Earth Ocean Simulator: MI ROC 3. 1 MI ROC 3. 1 Simulator: � Atmosphere: Spectral T106 (120km) 56 levels � Atmosphere: Spectral T106 (120km) 56 levels o 48 levels o x1/6 o o � Ocean & Ice: Grid 1/4 � Ocean & Ice: Grid 1/4 x1/6 48 levels o MATSIRO SVATS model o x1/2 o o � Land: 1/2 � Land: 1/2 x1/2 MATSIRO SVATS model o x1/2 o TRIP river routing model o o � River: 1/2 � River: 1/2 x1/2 TRIP river routing model � Parallelized with MPI on 80PE for � Parallelized with MPI on 80PE for atmos atmos. and . and 608PE for ocean (13% of whole ES) 608PE for ocean (13% of whole ES) � Atmos � Atmos. and ocean run simultaneously on separate . and ocean run simultaneously on separate PE groups (MPMD coupling). PE groups (MPMD coupling). No flux correction applied No flux correction applied
Hi- - CGCM: a pilot 40 CGCM: a pilot 40- - yr integration yr integration Hi
- CGCM CGCM Parameter adjustment Hi- Hi o L43 o x1.4 - CGCM* CGCM* *T42L20+1 Mid- Mid
- CGCM CGCM Obs. . Obs Hi- Hi
- CGCM CGCM (test) (test) Obs. . Obs Hi- Hi
- CGCM CGCM Obs. . Obs Hi- Hi
- CGCM CGCM Obs. . Obs Hi- Hi
CT02603b - CGCM CGCM - CGCM CGCM Mid- Mid Hi- Hi
Standard Deviation Standard Deviation of SST of SST Obs. . Obs Hi- - CGCM CGCM Hi Mid- - CGCM CGCM Mid
Atlantic Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Circulation Thermohaline
Atlantic Overturning Circulation Atlantic Overturning Circulation OGCM OGCM Hi- - CGCM CGCM Hi
JJA precipitation JJA precipitation Obs. . Obs Hi- - CGCM CGCM Hi Mid- - CGCM CGCM Mid
Looking at higher moment statistics? Looking at higher moment statistics? - Verif ication of daily rainf all f requency over Japan Verif ication of daily rainf all f requency over Japan - - - (120- - 140E, 30N 140E, 30N- - 40N) 40N) (120 CGCM results
Tropical Cyclone Tracks Tropical Cyclone Tracks Observed Observed (872) (872) AGCM AGCM (674) (674) CGCM CGCM (228) (228)
The K- - 1 Japan Project team is 1 Japan Project team is The K supposed to conduct … … supposed to conduct � CMIP � CMIP- -type run (1% per year increase in CO type run (1% per year increase in CO 2 ) 2 ) � 20th century climate reproduction � 20th century climate reproduction � SRES scenario runs � SRES scenario runs - A1B and B1 scenarios with Hi A1B and B1 scenarios with Hi- -CGCM CGCM - - All 6 marker scenarios with Mid All 6 marker scenarios with Mid- -CGCM CGCM - � Stabilization runs � Stabilization runs - Nominal 750 Nominal 750 ppmv ppmv stab. after 2100 (SRES A1B) stab. after 2100 (SRES A1B) - - Nominal 550 Nominal 550 ppmv ppmv stab. after 2100 (SRES B1) stab. after 2100 (SRES B1) - - Should we do non Should we do non- -CO CO 2 GHG scenario runs ??? - 2 GHG scenario runs ???
A pilot A pilot o C/100yr o CMI P- - type type ~ 4.7 C/100yr ~ 4.7 CMI P experiment experiment with with Hi- - CGCM CGCM Hi
20th century run 20th century run � External forcing fields are completed � External forcing fields are completed � Coupled with aerosol transport model � Coupled with aerosol transport model � Include major four species of aerosols (sulfate, � Include major four species of aerosols (sulfate, carbonaceous, sea salt, and soil dust) carbonaceous, sea salt, and soil dust) � Include 1st and 2nd kind indirect effect � Include 1st and 2nd kind indirect effect � Preliminary runs are conducted by using the � Preliminary runs are conducted by using the middle resolution AGCM forced by HadISST HadISST & & middle resolution AGCM forced by HadICE HadICE
External Forcings Forcings External � Natural � Natural forcings forcings � Solar variability (Lean et al., 1995) � Solar variability (Lean et al., 1995) � Volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere (Sato et al., 1993) � Volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere (Sato et al., 1993) � Terpene � Terpene and continuous volcanic eruptions and continuous volcanic eruptions � Anthropogenic � Anthropogenic forcings forcings � Well � Well- -mixed greenhouse gases mixed greenhouse gases � Stratospheric ozone depletion � Stratospheric ozone depletion � Tropospheric � Tropospheric ozone increase ozone increase � Sulfate aerosols due to fossil fuel use � Sulfate aerosols due to fossil fuel use � Carbonaceous aerosols due to fossil fuel combustion, � Carbonaceous aerosols due to fossil fuel combustion, agricultural waste burning, fuelwood fuelwood consumption, and consumption, and agricultural waste burning, forest fires forest fires � Sea salt and soil dust aerosols are calculated from � Sea salt and soil dust aerosols are calculated from meteorological variables (wind speed, soil moisture, meteorological variables (wind speed, soil moisture, etc.) and are not considered as external forcing etc.) and are not considered as external forcing
Historical Emission of Historical Emission of Anthropogenic SO 2 Anthropogenic SO 2 � Country � Country- -base historical inventory base historical inventory (Lefohn Lefohn et al., 1999) et al., 1999) ( � Gridded � Gridded with population distribution map with population distribution map obtained from SEDAC and HYDE database obtained from SEDAC and HYDE database
Historical Emission of Historical Emission of Anthropogenic Black Carbon Anthropogenic Black Carbon � Country � Country- -base historical inventory of base historical inventory of � UN Energy Statistics, IEA Energy Balances, � UN Energy Statistics, IEA Energy Balances, International Historical Statistics for fossil fuel International Historical Statistics for fossil fuel combustion combustion � FAOSTAT, FAO Production Yearbook, � FAOSTAT, FAO Production Yearbook, International Historical Statistics for agricultural International Historical Statistics for agricultural waste burning waste burning � FAOSTAT and a few population data for fuelwood � FAOSTAT and a few population data for fuelwood consumption consumption � GEIA scaled by historical population numbers for � GEIA scaled by historical population numbers for forest fire forest fire � Gridded � Gridded by population distribution by population distribution
Simulated Column Aerosol Burden Simulated Column Aerosol Burden
Simulated Column Aerosol Burden Simulated Column Aerosol Burden
Global & Annual Mean SAT Change Global & Annual Mean SAT Change
Linear temperature Linear temperature trend trend (1910- - 1945) 1945) (1910 OBS OBS No INDIRECT With INDIRECT No INDIRECT With INDIRECT
Linear temperature Linear temperature trend trend (1946- - 1975) 1975) (1946 OBS OBS No INDIRECT With INDIRECT No INDIRECT With INDIRECT
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