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Climate Services Climate Services Climate Services – Climate Services – – Innovation and Partnerships – Innovation and Partnerships Innovation and Partnerships Innovation and Partnerships Eileen L. Shea Chief, Climate Services & Monitoring Monitoring Div., NOAA/NCDC Clean Water and Clean Water and Climate Adaptation Summit University of Minnesota University of Minnesota September 17, 2010 1

Impacts of Climate Change Climate change is apparent now across our nation. Trends observed in recent decades include rising temperatures, increasing heavy downpours, rising sea level, longer growing seasons, reductions in snow and ice, and changes in the amounts and timing of river flows. These trends are projected to continue, though larger increases would result from higher levels of heat-trapping gas emissions, and smaller increases from lower levels of these emissions. The observed changes in climate are already causing a wide range of impacts, and these impacts are expected to grow. Sea Ice and Permafrost Sea Ice and Permafrost Forests Risks and costs in Alaska increase as thawing of permafrost damages Forest growth is generally projected to increase roads, buildings, and forests, and in much of the East, but decrease in much of the declining sea ice increases coastal West as water becomes even scarcer. Major erosion and threatens the existence of shifts in species are expected, such as maple- so some communities. e co u t es beech-birch forests being replaced by oak-hickory beech birch forests being replaced by oak hickory in the Northeast. Insect infestations and wildfires are projected to increase as warming progresses. Coldwater Fish Interacting Stresses Salmon trout and other Salmon, trout, and other Population shifts and development choices are coldwater fish will face making more Americans vulnerable to climate additional stresses as water change impacts. An aging populace, and temperatures rise and summer continued population shifts to the streamflows decline. Southeast, Southwest, and coastal cities amplify Ecosystems and the tourism risks associated with extreme heat, sea-level and recreation they support will rise, storm surge, and increasing water scarcity in g g y be adversely affected be adversely affected. some regions. Coral Reefs Rising water temperatures and ocean acidification threaten coral reefs and the rich ecosystems they support These and other ecosystems they support. These and other climate-related impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries. 2 2 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

Responding to Climate Change Responses to climate change fall into two major categories. “Mitigation” focuses on reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases and particles to reduce the amount and speed of climate change. “Adaptation” refers to changes made to better respond to present or future climate conditions in order to reduce harm or take advantage of opportunities. Both are necessary elements of a comprehensive response strategy. Heavy Downpours Heavy Downpours Heat Waves Heat Waves Agriculture Agriculture More rain is already coming Heat waves will Increasing in very heavy events, and become more heat, pests, floods, weeds, and this trend is projected to frequent and water stress will present increase across the nation. intense, increasing increasing challenges for crop Such events are harmful to threats to human and livestock production. transportation health and quality of ecosystems will be lost. y i f infrastructure, agriculture, wa t t i lt life, especially in . ter quality, and human cities. . health. . . Water and Energy Supply Energy Warming will decrease demand Coastal Communities Coastal Communities As warming increases As warming increases for heating energy in winter and competition for Sea-level rise and storm surge increase demand for cooling water, the energy will increase threats to homes energy in summer. The latter will sector will be strongly and infrastructure including result in significant increases in affected as power water, sewer, transportation, an electricity use and peak demand plants require large d communication systems. in most regions. amounts of water for Many barrier islands and coastal cooling. li marshes that protect the . coastline and support healthy ecosystems will be lost. Water Supply . Reduced summer runoff, increased . winter runoff, and increasing demands will compound current stresses on water supplies and flood management, especially in the West. . . 3 3 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

Two Complementary Responses to a Changing Climate Miti Mitigation : reduce emissions; energy ti d i i efficiency; alternative energies, etc. Implementation: NOW and save money p y Impacts on climate change: 50-100 yrs. Adaptation : planning ahead; incorporating Adaptation : planning ahead; incorporating likely future climate states into regular planning; taking action Implementation: NOW and in future Impacts on community: Now and Future. DECISIONS TODAY CAN REDUCE VULNERABILITY THROUGH ANTICIPATION AND ACTION 4

Adaptation • No “top 10” Adaptation Actions • Adaptations are location and issue specific Adaptations are location and issue specific • Adaptive capacity is uneven w/in & across society: resources ($, info., expertise); political will; stringent policies and regulations; cultural acceptability; not automatically translate into reduced vulnerability • Scale of info must match scale of issue • Rarely only because of climate change: multiple stressors R l l b f li h ( e.g. growing populations in harms’ way ); hazard management • Climate change a moving target: • Climate change - a moving target: requires i continuous reassessment

Community Context y Climate Change not the only challenge y g to be juggled

Communities Have: • A lot to lose from climate impacts: slr, storms, water issues, health impacts, forest , , , p , fires, etc. • Limited resources and tight budgets: competition – g g p elderly, economy, energy, environment • Much to gain from opportunities: economic Much to gain from opportunities: economic dev., energy savings, avoided costs • Relevant authorities: blgd and dev permits Relevant authorities: blgd and dev permits (influence land use), building codes, public transit • Opportunity to learn from and work with other Opportunity to learn from and work with other communities

Thinking About Possible Consequences Many options : Learn from others: guidebooks and specific projects How will present situations, problems, hazards change under a changing climate? Examine various sectors under projected changes • Identify vulnerabilities • Define tipping points for actions pp g p

Climate change vulnerability approach Document Current Exposure Current Vulnerability Assess Current Climate Adaptive Capacity Adaptive Capacity S i Science Assess Future Changes g Social in Exposure Science Future Vulnerability y Assess Future Assess Future Adaptive Capacity Identify Modifications for Future Adaptive Capacity 9 9 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

Lessons • Adaptation manageable and cost effective when shared effective when shared and carried out in a collaborative way • Culturally- appropriate , participat ory process enabling bli communities to explore options to p p reduce vulnerability and effectively balance a variety of balance a variety of interests and the needs 10 10 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

We can anticipate, plan, act… or we can react .

Facilitating Dialogue—Bridge to Stakeholders Develop, Deliver & Evaluate Products Extension, Outreach & Climate Literacy Adaptation Planning Planning Vulnerability Assessment Assessment Linking: Linking: Local to Global Observations and Monitoring Process with Products Process with Products Research and Modeling Science with Society Shared Planning for the Future 12 12 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

NOAA Climate Service NOAA Climate Service NCS V ISION * An Informed Society Anticipating and Responding to Climate and its Impacts An Informed Society Anticipating and Responding to Climate and its Impacts NCS M ISSION To advance understanding of changes in climate and to To advance understanding of changes in climate and to predict climate in service of a resilient society NCS O BJECTIVES * Improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts I d i tifi d t di f th h i li t t d it i t Integrated assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, services, and decisions Mitigation and adaptation efforts supported by sustained, reliable, and timely climate services A climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes i f informed decisions d d i i Note: These are subject to input from 13 NOAA’s Science Advisory Board and public comment