RSA Labour Party Conference Fringe Event Public Services in a cold climate: what should be the priorities? Robert Chote Lord Mandelson Ben Page Paula Sussex Matthew Taylor Rachel Sylvester, Chair Sponsored by In partnership with
Saving public spending: are we facing up to hard choices? Ben Page Chief Executive Ipsos MORI
What’s the national picture?
The economy is seen as the number one issue facing the country What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Top mentions % 54 Economy Crime/law and order 32 30 Unemployment 25 Race relations/immigration Defence/Foreign Affairs/ 17 Terrorism 16 NHS 12 Education/Schools 10 Morality/individual behaviour 9 Inflation/prices 7 Drug Abuse Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Base: 978 British adults 18+, 13 th – 18th Aug 2009
Concern about unemployment is rising – in line with actual unemployment figures 100 3500 Unemployment as issue 90 % saying Unemployment as issue facing Britain Unemployment (thousands) 3000 80 Unemployment (thousands) 2500 70 60 2000 50 1500 40 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Source – Ipsos MORI Issues Index and ONS Labour force survey
Economic optimism is recovering from a 30 year low…. 45 Economy improve 40 % Think the economy will improve in next 12 months 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - n - - - n n r l g t n r l g b y p v b y r u c r u p c p u u a a a u o a a a u e e e e J J A O A J M M J J M M J A N D A F S F Year Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
…but Labour isn’t benefiting 45 45 Economy improve 40 40 Labour share % Think the economy will improve in next 12 months 35 35 30 30 % Labour share of vote 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - n - - - n n r l g t n r l g b y p v b y r u c r u p c p u u a a a u o a a a u e e e e J J A O A J M M J J M M J A N D A F S F Year Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
What do people think about public spending?
Despite years of spending increases…… To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about public services in Britain? % Agree % Disagree Too much money is spent on 21 48 public services We demand a great deal from public services but are not 36 35 prepared to pay enough taxes to fund them Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009
Public believes in efficiency savings – not cuts to frontline services To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about public services in Britain? % Agree % Disagree Making public services more efficient can save enough money 75 9 to help cut government spending, without damaging services the public receive There is a real need to cut spending on public services in 24 50 order to pay off the very high national debt we now have Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009
Public split on hard choices: cut services or raise taxes? Government borrowing is now at record levels, and will need to be reduced in future. Which of these statements comes closest to your own view? Government borrowing Don’t should be reduced, even know if it means spending on 27% key public services is cut 36% Spending on public services should be 38% maintained, even if it means increasing the income tax I pay Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009
Different views by party support Government borrowing is now at record levels, and will need to be reduced in future. Which of these statements comes closest to your own view? % Government borrowing should be % Spending on public services should reduced, even if it means spending on be maintained, even if it means key public services is cut increasing the income tax I pay All 36 38 Cons 53 33 Lab 22 55 LibDem 34 44 Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009
If you have to tax, don’t tax me! In order to bring the nation’s debts under control, many experts think it is highly likely that the level of taxation will increase in future. If taxes were to rise, which of these, if any, would you be most/least in favour of being increased? % Most % Least Tax on business 25 3 Inheritance tax 24 6 Income tax 12 25 VAT 8 10 Fuel duty 5 21 Council tax 2 26 None 11 3 Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009
Lifestyle changes before charges in the NHS If the NHS was to face lower levels of spending, which of these, if any, would you be most/least willing to accept? % Most % Least Requiring patients to change lifestyle before they are allowed treatment (e.g. 53 7 give up smoking, change diet) 7 12 Longer waiting lists Charges for visiting your GP 6 35 Some types of treatment not available 5 16 in your area, depending on where you live 3 19 Fees for hospital stays 17 7 None of these Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009
Don’t like larger class sizes If education services were to face lower levels of spending, which of these, if any, would you be most/least willing to accept? % Most % Least 25 15 Fewer free pre-school places Higher university fees 25 21 Larger class sizes in primary 11 21 schools Larger class sizes in secondary 9 24 schools 19 9 None of these Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009
More police, less prison education…. If the Criminal Justice System was to face lower levels of spending, which of these, if any, would you be most/least willing to accept? % Most % Least 38 4 Fewer education programmes in prisons More fines (eg speeding tickets, parking 18 15 fines) Fewer rehabilitation programmes for 13 6 drugs & alcohol users 13 16 Fewer prison sentences and more community sentences 2 7 Less monitoring of people on probation 1 45 Fewer police 6 None of these Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009
In summary Public still in denial about the task ahead – and split on the best way to deal with it Frontline public services are particularly sacrosanct… …but no-one likes tax rises So can we really make pain-free savings, or do harsh messages have to be communicated to the public? And who will they trust to make the hard decisions for them?
Thanks for listening ben.page@ipsos.com www.ipsos-mori.com
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