Circular economy interaction with climate policies, ecosystem services, biodiversity, and human health: Insights from GEO-6 and GRO 2019 Presentation to the LCS-RNet 11 TH Annual Meeting Paul Ekins Professor of Resources and Environmental Policy University College London October 17 th 2019 ENEA, Rome
Circular economy: historical background Kenneth Boulding 1966 ‘The Economics of the Coming • Spaceship Earth’ Athelstan Spilhaus 1966 ‘Resourceful Waste Management’, • 1970 ‘The Next Industrial Revolution; industrial ecology Walter Stahel 1977/1981 Jobs for Tomorrow , 1982 ‘The • Product-Life Factor’ David Pearce and Kerry Turner 1990 Economics of Natural • Resources and the Environment Circular economy as new development strategy in China in • 2002 Ellen MacArthur Foundation 2013 •
Source: EMF 2013, p.24, https://ww w.ellenmac arthurfoun dation.org/ circular- economy/in fographic
Definitions “A circular economy is an industrial system that is restorative or • regenerative by intention and design. … It replaces the ‘end-of-life’ concept with restoration, shifts towards the use of renewable energy , eliminates the use of toxic chemicals , which impair reuse, and aims for the elimination of waste through the superior design of materials, products, systems, and, within this, business models .” (EMF 2013, p.7) “Circular economy describes an economic system that is based on business • models which replace the ‘end-of-life’ concept with reducing, alternatively reusing, recycling and recovering materials in production/distribution and consumption processes, thus operating at the micro level (products, companies, consumers), meso level (eco-industrial parks) and macro level (city, region, nation and beyond), with the aim to accomplish sustainable development , which implies creating environmental quality , economic prosperity and social equity , to the benefit of current and future generations.” (Kirchherr et al. 2017, pp.224-225) OECD paper: The circular economy is one that has low environmental • impacts and that makes good use of natural resources , through high resource efficiency and waste prevention , especially in the manufacturing sector, and minimal end-of-life disposal of materials.
Current circularity levels • MFA based estimations indicate that circularity, measured as the share of recyclable materials in raw material demand, is between 6-9% globally. • EU, despite high recycling of around 40% of end-of-life products, only achieves 12-13% circularity levels • Most studies agree to conclude that ‘ downscaling the overall size of social metabolism’ is also necessary, in particular, in industrial countries, in addition ‘to advancing the degree of circularity ’ (Haas et al., 2015)
Gl Glob obal Re Resources Out Outlook 201 2019 Glob obal status and nd trends nds on natural resources (metals, non-metallic minerals, fossil fuels, biomass, water, land). Environmental, eco economic c and so soci cial impacts cts from current and future use of natural resources Proje ojections ons by 2060 of natural resource use and impacts under two scenarios: ‘Historical Trends’ and ‘Towards Sustainability’ Policy cy recommen endati tions s for economically attractive and technologically viable action to achieve sustainability goals.
Resources provide the foundation for the goods, services and infrastructure that make up our current socio-economic systems Biomass (wood, crops, including food, fuel, feedstock and • plant-based materials) Fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil) • Metals (such as iron, aluminum and cooper…) • Non-metallic minerals (including sand, gravel and • limestone) Land • Water •
he use of The of na natu tural reso esources es ha has s mor ore tha than tri ripled from 1 1970 70, an , and continues t s to grow 92 92 billion tons of global extraction 12. 12.2 tons materials demand Myth: Technological advancement is making the global economy per capita more resource efficient. Fact: Some (high-income) countries are becoming much more efficient but global productivity has not improved in the last 20 years
Hist stor orica cal and nd cur urrent ent pa patterns of ns of natur na ural resour ource ce extracti tion, pr proc ocess ssing ng and nd us use are resulti ting n increasin easingly gly negativ ative e in impacts acts on on the he env nvironm onment ent and nd hum human n he health h 50% 50% of global climate change impacts 90% 90% of global biodiversity loss and water stress 11% of global species loss 11% Im Impact cts o of f natural re resource extr tracti tion and nd processi cessing
Hist stor orica cal and nd cur urrent ent pa patterns of ns of natur na ural resour ource ce na natur ural resour ource ce Water Stress Impacts extract ction on, , pr proc ocess ssing ng and nd us use n increasing easingly ly are resul ulting ng in negativ ative i e impacts acts on on the he env nvironm onment nt and nd hum human n he health h 50% 50% of global climate change impacts 90% 90% of global biodiversity loss and water stress 11% of global species loss 11% Im Impact cts o of f natural re resource extr tracti tion and nd processi cessing
Hist stor orica cal and nd cur urrent ent pa patterns of ns of Land Use Related Biodiversity Loss na natur ural resour ource ce na natur ural resour ource ce extract ction on, , pr proc ocess ssing ng and nd us use n increasing easingly ly are resul ulting ng in negativ ative i e impacts acts on on the he env nvironm onment nt and nd hum human n he health h 50% of global climate 50% change impacts 90% of global biodiversity 90% loss and water stress 11% 11% of global species loss Im Impact cts o of f natural re resource extr tracti tion and nd processi cessing
The per ca he per capi pita m mater terial foot otpr print nt f from h high gh-inc ncom ome count untri ries i is: The use of natural 60% higher than the 60% resources and the related upper-middle-income group benefits and 13x 13x the level of the low- income groups. environmental impacts are unevenly distributed The per ca he per capi pita environ onment ntal impacts across countries and high-inc ncom ome count untries is: regions 3-6x x those of the low- income groups.
The use of natural resources and the Rise of of the he up upper-mid middle le- related benefits and environmental inco come me natio tions impacts are unevenly distributed across countries and regions 56% 56% of the global share of domestic material consumption in 2017 Higher er per capita material consumption than the high-income group as of 2012 Practically no chan ange for low income countries despite needing it the most
out urgen ent an and Without conc ncerted a ed action on , ra rapi pid gr grow owth a and nd i inef nefficient t use of use of na natura ral reso esource ces will con conti tinue to cr to crea eate unsu sust stai ainab able e pressu essures s on the on the environ onment nt.
he decoupl oupling ng of The f na natu tural reso esource use use and nd environ onment ntal impacts from om econ economic acti ctivity and nd hum human wel ell- n essen ential bei being i is s an el elem ement t in n the the tra trans nsition to to a sustaina nabl ble a future re .
Environmental and resource implications of moves towards a circular economy (1) • Plausible that increasing the length of time that materials stay in the economy will reduce the extraction of virgin materials below what they would otherwise have been and associated environmental impacts – but empirical evidence scarce • Recycling of energy-intensive materials and products can lead to substantial reductions in CO2 emissions • Whether there are other net environmental benefits of 9Rs need to be determined through LCAs • ‘Zero waste’ is most unlikely to be environmentally beneficial
Environmental and resource implications of moves towards a circular economy (2) Source: Material Economics 2018, Exhibit 1.5, p.19
Achieving decoupli oupling i ng is possib ssible le and can deliver substantial soci cial al an and e environmen ental benef efits its , , including repair of past environmental damage, while also supporting econ onom omic ic growth th an and h huma man w well ell-being being
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