OKLAHOMA SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS April 18 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 OKLAHOMA SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS April 18 th – 19 th and 15 th , 2018

2 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Methodology Ø Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 644n autodial survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in the state of Oklahoma. Ø The interviews were conducted from April 18 th , 19 th and 22 nd , 2018. Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.86% at the 95% confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population. Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past voter turnout demographics for a Republican primary election in Oklahoma. Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project, and Courtney Sievers was the project director.

3 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Survey Demographics 45% 48% 52% 24% 14% 10% 7% Male Female 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 34% 31% 20% 15% Evangelical, Trump Republican "Traditional" Unsure or No Christian Republican Opinion Conservative

4 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Survey Demographics 76% 11% 6% 5% 1% 1% Married Widowed Separated or Single, Never Single, Living with No Opinion Divorced Been Married Partner

5 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Congressional Districts OTTAWA KAY NOWATA HARPER GRANT WOODS CRAIG CIMARRON TEXAS BEAVER ALFALFA WASHINGTON OSAGE WOODWARD GARFIELD NOBLE ROGERS PAWNEE MAYES MAJOR 1 DELAWARE ELLIS PAYNE TULSA DEWEY KINGFISHER WAGONER CHEROKEE LOGAN CREEK ADAIR 3 BLAINE LINCOLN ROGER MILLS OKMULGEE CUSTER MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA CANADIAN OKFUSKEE SEQUOYAH MCINTOSH WASHITA BECKHAM 5 POTTAWATOMIE HASKELL CADDO SEMINOLE CLEVELAND HUGHES GRADY MCCLAIN LATIMER GREER KIOWA PITTSBURG LE FLORE 2 4 HARMON PONTOTOC GARVIN COMANCHE JACKSON COAL STEPHENS MURRAY PUSHMATAHA TILLMAN ATOKA JOHNSTON COTTON Legend CARTER JEFFERSON MCCURTAIN CHOCTAW MARSHALL LOVE BRYAN Congressional District µ CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 Oklahoma Regions - By Congressional District

6 VOTER ISSUE PREFERENCE

Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 7 In your own words, being as descriptive as possible, please tell me what you think the most important issues and problems are that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most. “ Oklahoma needs a full “ Figure out the states Major Themes audit and investigation budget problems. They into every agency from Budget Problems–Audit Govt. Agencies have had budget problems the top down on where for years and it needs to be Education – Paying Teachers – our tax money is going, addressed. ” Consolidating School Districts who is spending it, the - Female, 45-54, Evangelical waste, the corruption Jobs and fix it. And stop raising taxes every time High Taxes “ Economy and education . ” the wind blows up their - Male, 55-64, Traditional skirt. ” -Female, 55-64, “ Teacher pay raise. More funding for Evangelical schools in OK. ” “ Raising teachers pay. ” -Male, 55-64, Trump Rep - Female, 65+, Evangelical “ Leadership in the “ Should address the bureaucracy. Have legislature. The economy “ Taxes are too high. Teachers audits of everything and see what we can and jobs. Education pay is too low. Too much cut. We should address the union of problems. Healthcare corruption. ” government employees, it isn't right that problems. ” -Female, 65+, Trump Rep the union runs our state more than the - Female, 65+, Traditional state does. ” -Male, 45-54, Trump Rep

8 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? 24% 19% 13% 10% 10% 10% 7% 6% 1% ADDRESSING IMPROVING CREATE JOBS PROTECTING ENFORCING PROTECT LIFE REDUCING REDUCE OTHER NO STATE BUDGET PUBLIC GROW 2ND IMMIGRATION RELIGIOUS COST OF ENERGY OPINION CRISIS SCHOOLS ECONOMY AMENDMENT LAWS LIBERTY HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY REGULATIONS

9 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? 24% 24% 12% 6% 6% 9% 10% 1% 8% WOMEN 2% 23% 15% 14% 15% 14% 10% 4% 4% MEN ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS OTHER NO OPINION

10 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? 23% 9% 11% 19% 16% 4% 7% 2% 9% TRUMP 17% 17% 14% 8% 11% 21% 9% 3% EVANGELICAL 1% 2% 33% 31% 14% 7% TRADITIONAL 3% 4% 5% ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS OTHER NO OPINION

11 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? 21% 20% 10% 9% 13% 10% 8% 1% 9% 65+ 22% 19% 13% 9% 8% 8% 13% 4% 5% 55-64 1% 27% 25% 13% 17% 5% 8% 2% 45-54 1% 33% 19% 11% 15% 5% 11% 6% 35-44 27% 10% 34% 10% 11% 8% 18-34 ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS OTHER NO OPINION

12 GARY RICHARDSON IMAGE RATING

13 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Richardson? 14% 23% 37% 31% 31% 25% 25% 35% 21% 28% 17% 12% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 39% 37% 36% 27% HEARD OF NO OPINION 26% 26% 25% 24% 20% 19% NEVER HEARD OF 11% 11% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP

14 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Richardson? 14% 23% 28% 35% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 42% 40% 37% 36% 34% 31% 31% 30% 27% 26% 24% 23% 21% 21% 18% 17% 15% 14% 13% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

15 TODD LAMB IMAGE RATING

16 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Todd Lamb? 6% 35% 34% 37% 35% 33% 32% 29% 22% 25% 7% 5% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 41% 39% 37% 36% 35% 31% HEARD OF NO OPINION 25% 22% 16% NEVER HEARD OF 7% 6% 4% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP

17 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Todd Lamb? 6% 35% 34% 25% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 48% 41% 38% 36% 35% 34% 34% 32% 30% 27% 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 8% 8% 5% 4% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

18 KEVIN STITT IMAGE RATING

19 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kevin Stitt? 22% 28% 34% 29% 28% 26% 22% 22% 21% 19% 31% 17% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 33% 33% 33% 31% 30% 29% 25% HEARD OF NO OPINION 22% 21% 17% 13% NEVER HEARD OF 12% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP

20 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kevin Stitt? 22% 28% 31% 19% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 52% 48% 33% 32% 32% 31% 31% 27% 27% 25% 25% 25% 22% 22% 18% 15% 14% 10% 10% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

21 MICK CORNETT IMAGE RATING

22 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mick Cornett? 17% 33% 32% 33% 33% 21% 25% 23% 19% 19% 16% 29% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 45% HEARD OF NO OPINION 32% 30% 29% 28% 24% 24% 23% 21% 17% NEVER HEARD OF 16% 11% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP

23 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mick Cornett? 17% 33% 21% 29% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 46% 39% 38% 36% 33% 32% 31% 28% 27% 25% 23% 22% 21% 18% 18% 18% 16% 14% 10% 6% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

24 GARY JONES IMAGE RATING

25 Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Jones? 12% 31% 38% 24% 31% 31% 29% 26% 21% 14% 33% 10% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE 37% 37% UNFAVORABLE 33% 31% 30% 27% HEARD OF NO OPINION 23% 22% 19% 18% 13% NEVER HEARD OF 11% TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP