ENERGY & VOTERS Poll Briefing Luncheon Survey of North Carolina - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ENERGY & VOTERS Poll Briefing Luncheon

Survey of North Carolina Voters Prepared for Conservatives for Clean Energy May 3, 2016

Table of Contents • Methodology • NC Voter History Data • Voter Intensity and Ideological Overview • Issue Overview • Ballot Test • Demographic Overview 2

Methodology • This poll of 800 registered voters living in North Carolina was conducted via telephone by professional interviewers over the course of two nights, April 18 - 19, 2016. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter participation from past Presidential Election election cycles. • The poll of 800 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.46% at a 95% confidence interval. • Paul Shumaker served as project manager for the survey. 3

North Carolina Voter Registration Trend Data Chart shows voter registration trend of North Carolina voters since 2004. Data source, North Carolina State Board of Elections –Percentages show market shares. NC Voter Registration Trends 47.52% 50.00% 45.93% 45.79% 44.73% 43.28% 41.92% 41.21% 45.00% 40.51% 40.00% 34.53% 34.70% 35.00% 31.98% 31.63% 30.97% 30.59% 30.63% 30.49% 30.00% 25.00% 28.19% 27.59% 28.86% 25.75% 23.64% 20.00% 22.23% 19.37% 15.00% 17.96% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% May 2004 May 2006 November 2008 November 2010 November 2012 November 2014 November 2015 April 2016 Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated 4

Partisan Ideological Trends 1998 - 2016 Chart tracks the self-described ideology of North Carolina voters from 1998 – 2016. Source, North Carolina polling data from Capitol Communications, conducted by Diversified Research, Inc. Partisan Ideological Trends 100.00% 79.1% 74.8% 75.6% 80.00% 70.4% 62.9% 59.2% 60.00% 33.7% 24.8% 40.00% 29.5% 22.7% 24.0% 23.1% 16.4% 16.2% 20.00% 15.2% 20.0% 14.4% 16.4% 11.4% 14.5% 0.00% October 1998 October 2000 October 2012 October 2014 August 2015 April 2016 -20.00% -12.2% -19.2% -18.7% -24.0% -40.00% North Carolina Democrats Republicans Unaffilated 5

Voting Intensity WHEN THERE IS A NOVEMBER ELECTION IN NORTH CAROLINA, DO YOU ALWAYS VOTE, ALMOST ALWAYS VOTE, VOTE MOST OF THE TIME, VOTE SOME OF THE TIME, HARDLY EVER VOTE, OR NEVER VOTE? Most of the N = Always Almost Always Time Question Sample 800 85.5% 7.0% 7.0% RDU - DMA 251 87.6% 6.8% 5.6% CLT - DMA 214 84.1% 7.9% 7.9% GSO - DMA 144 83.3% 7.6% 9.0% Wilmington - DMA 40 82.5% 7.5% 10.0% Greenville/NB - DMA 85 85.9% 4.7% 9.4% Asheville - DMA 66 87.9% 6.1% 6.1% Republican 286 85.7% 8.0% 6.3% Democrat 338 86.7% 4.1% 9.2% Unaffiliated 165 82.4% 11.5% 6.1% Always "D" Voter 144 85.4% 4.2% 10.4% Always "R" Voter 118 86.4% 3.4% 10.2% Splits-Ticket 153 79.7% 13.7% 6.5% White 575 86.8% 7.3% 5.9% Non-White 191 84.3% 3.7% 12.0% Male 376 83.5% 8.8% 7.7% Female 424 87.3% 5.4% 7.3% 6

Ideological Profile of Key Voting Subsets IF YOU HAD TO LABEL YOURSELF, WOULD YOU SAY YOU ARE A LIBERAL, A MODERATE, OR A CONSERVATIVE IN YOUR POLITICAL BELIEFS? Ideological Ideological Center Range N = Liberal Moderate Conservative April 2016 800 20.8% 30.3% 43.9% 23.1% RDU - DMA 251 25.1% 31.1% 37.8% 12.7% -10.4% CLT -DMA 214 17.8% 29.9% 47.2% 29.4% 6.3% GSO - DMA 144 22.2% 24.3% 49.3% 27.1% 4.0% Wilmington -DMA 40 25.0% 30.0% 40.0% 15.0% -8.1% Greenville/NB -DMA 85 16.5% 28.2% 48.2% 31.7% 8.6% Asheville -DMA 66 13.6% 43.9% 40.9% 27.3% 4.2% Urban 163 24.5% 30.7% 38.7% 14.2% -8.9% Suburban 329 19.5% 33.7% 42.2% 22.7% -0.4% Rural 289 20.8% 25.6% 48.8% 28.0% 4.9% Republican 286 2.1% 18.9% 76.9% 74.8% 51.7% Democrat 338 40.2% 32.8% 21.0% -19.2% -42.3% Unaffiliated 165 13.9% 44.2% 33.9% 20.0% -3.1% Always "D" Voter 144 42.4% 23.6% 25.0% -17.4% -40.5% Always "R" Voter 118 4.2% 5.9% 84.7% 80.5% 57.4% Splits-Ticket 153 13.7% 52.9% 29.4% 15.7% -7.4% Entire Life 383 15.4% 30.0% 50.1% 34.7% 11.6% 20+years 212 20.8% 30.7% 39.2% 18.4% -4.7% 11-20 -years 111 31.5% 26.1% 39.6% 8.1% -15.0% 6-10 years 55 29.1% 43.6% 27.3% -1.8% -24.9% Male 376 18.9% 31.6% 45.5% 26.6% 3.5% Female 424 22.4% 29.0% 42.5% 20.1% -3.0% 7

A Look Beyond the Ideological Labels Probe: If Liberal, then ask would you say you are very liberal or somewhat liberal; if conservative, then ask would you say you are very conservative or somewhat conservative? N=800 N=800 Unaffiliated Democrat Republican Rural Suburban Urban 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Vey Liberal Somewhat Liberal Moderate Somewhat Conservative Very Conservative 8

What Are Voters Angry About? There has been a lot of media attention about voters being angry this election year. In your opinion, what makes you most angry about our elected government leaders in Raleigh and Washington? (Open-ended) N=800 18.0% 16.1% 16.0% 14.0% 11.4% 12.0% 10.4% 11.0% 10.0% 8.0% 7.4% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 9

What Voters Had to Say HOW THERE IS NO MIDDLE GROUND ANYMORE/ PARTIES HAVE GONE SO FAR ON EACH SIDE THAT THEY WONT EVEN DISCUSS IND M MOD 26-40 IMPORTANT SITUATIONS GOP F VERY CONS 65+ THAT BOTH PARTIES CAN'T AGREE ON ANYTHING GOP M MOD 65+ THE LANGUAGE AND THE ATTITUDE IS AWFUL NEVER HEARD IT BEFORE DEM F MOD 55-64 THE FACT THAT THEY FIGHT AMONGST THEMSELVES INSTEAD OF WORKING TOGETHER. DEM M MOD 55-64 THE GOVERNMENT WORKING TOGETHER DEM F VERY LIB 55-64 THEY ACT LIKE CHILDREN DEM F VERY CONS 26-40 THE GOVERNMENT LEADERS NEED TO WORK TOGETHER TO GET THINGS DONE GOP M VERY CONS 65+ THEY CAN'T FIND COMMON SOLUTIONS I GUESS THE WAY THEY TEAR INTO EACH OTHER./IT'S JUST LIKE THEY'RE FUSSING AND ARGUING AND SAYING EVERYTHING BAD THEY GOP F VERY CONS 65+ CAN. IND F MOD 55-64 THEY ARE NOT WORKING TOGETHER GOP M VERY CONS 55-64 A LOT OF DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS GOP F MOD 55-64 THEY CAN'T WORK TOGETHER TO COME UP WITH IDEAS THAT WORK FOR MOST PEOPLE. DEM M SMWT LIB 65+ THEY'RE ALL CONFUSED AND FIGHT TOO MUCH. GOP M VERY CONS 55-64 STATE AND GOVERNMENT LEVELS NOT GETTING ALONG IND M MOD 55-64 ALOT OF BIKERING / NOT GETTING ENOUGH DONE IND F DK 55-64 I THINK THEY ARE ALL CRAZY, THEY ARE ALWAYS FIGHTING DEM F SMWT LIB 41-54 I'M NOT HAPPY ABOUT THE BICKERING BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES. GOP F MOD 55-64 BEING OR ACTING LIKE IDIOTS. DEM F SMWT LIB 65+ THEY HAVE A THREE YEAR OLD MENTALITY. THE FIGHTING THAT GOES ON BETWEEN CANDIDATES. GOP F VERY CONS 65+ THE FIGHTING. DEM M SMWT LIB 65+ THEY ARGUE WITH EACH OTHER INSTEAD OF GETTING THINGS DONE DEM M DK 65+ LACK OF CONCERN AND ACTION/ BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT TOGETHER CAN COMPROMISE GOP F VERY CONS 65+ THEY FIGHT TOO MUCH. IND F MOD 65+ I WISH THEY WOULDN'T SNARL AT EACH OTHER. I'M NOT ANGRY BUT WISH THEY WOULDN'T SNARL AT EACH OTHER. DEM F VERY CONS 65+ JUST THE WAY TREAT EACH OTHER 10

Off-Shore Drilling for Oil and Natural Gas STATE LEADERS ARE DEBATING MANY LAWS TO IMPACT CURRENT AND FUTURE ENERGY SOURCES. WHEN IT COMES TO YOUR OPINION ABOUT STATE LEADERS, PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT OR OPPOSE A LAWMAKER OR CANDIDATE: "A LAWMAKER OR CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS OFFSHORE DRILLING FOR OIL OR GAS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA?" Strongly Strongly DK/ N= Support Oppose N=800 Support Oppose Refused 57.5% 30.5% 34.5% 20.1% 8.0% February 2015 800 70.0% 47.8% 26.3% 42.3% 27.1% 10.0% April 2016 800 57.5% 60.0% RDU - DMA 251 43.0% 23.5% 49.8% 34.7% 7.2% 47.8% 50.0% 42.3% CLT - DMA 214 50.0% 28.5% 40.2% 23.8% 9.8% 34.5% 40.0% 30.5% GSO - DMA 144 54.2% 26.4% 32.6% 22.0% 13.2% 27.1% 26.3% 30.0% Wilmington - DMA 40 35.0% 20.0% 55.0% 32.5% 10.0% 20.1% 20.0% Greenville/NB - 10.0% 8.0% DMA 85 49.4% 27.1% 41.2% 25.9% 9.4% 10.0% Asheville - DMA 66 0.0% 50.0% 31.8% 34.8% 18.2% 15.2% Support Strongly Oppose Strongly DK/ Republican 286 67.5% 43.4% 24.1% 12.2% 8.4% Support Opose Refused Democrat 338 33.1% 13.0% 56.2% 37.3% 10.7% April 2016 February 2015 Unaffiliated 165 43.6% 23.6% 45.5% 32.7% 10.9% Always "D" Voter 144 32.6% 16.0% 59.0% 32.6% 8.3% Overall support for offshore drilling Always "R" Voter 118 71.2% 47.5% 19.5% 9.3% 9.3% Splits-Ticket 153 41.2% 22.9% 46.4% 30.7% 12.4% has dropped about 10 points since McCrory Voter 349 67.0% 41.0% 24.6% 11.2% 8.3% 2015. Republican support remains Cooper Voter 325 30.2% 12.0% 62.2% 44.3% 7.7% Undecided strong but is down from 78.1% in Governor 102 39.2% 21.6% 40.2% 26.5% 20.6% 2015, Unaffiliated voters dropped Male 55.6% 33.8% 37.0% 25.3% 7.4% 376 from 58.1% and Democratic voters Female 40.8% 19.6% 46.9% 28.8% 12.3% 424 dropped from 41.4%. 11