Vote by Mail Among Non-White Voters National Non-White Voters - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Vote by Mail Among Non-White Voters National Non-White Voters Survey. July 2020

Research Methodology 1. Diagnose the problem target audiences have with vote by mail. Is it familiarity? Trust? Process? We must understand which of these problems needs solving 2. Explore the process of vote by mail to identify all potential barriers to entry across target audiences Objectives 3. Identify messaging that overcomes the barriers to voting by mail 4. Regular tracker to measure the rapid changes in attitudes toward vote by mail as it evolves in the court of public opinion as election day approaches Party ID Sample Nonwhite Voters These findings are from a proprietary survey conducted by HIT Strategies on behalf of the Human Rights Campaign. This survey consisted of 800 1% Methodology N=800 Base Non-White voters with a 200 person oversample each of African Survey N=200 Black American, Latinx, Asian American/Pacific Islander, and LGBTQ voters. The N=200 Latinx Size survey was conducted via double opt in online panel, with respondents N=200 AAPI matched back to the voter file. The survey fielded from June 29 th – July 22% N=200 LGBTQ voters 10 th , 2020, and the margin of error is +/- 4% with a confidence level of 95%. Geo National 59% Demo Non-White Voters 17% Geography Date & Time Demographic Descriptions Methodology Focus Group June 10 , 2020 11 HRC Selected States* Non-White LGBTQ voters, Mix of Gender, Ages 35 - 55 FL, GA, and NC June 11, 2020 Black voters, Mix of Gender, Ages 25 - 45 Democrat Republican Independent PA, OH, and WI June 11, 2020 Non-White voters, Mix of Gender, Ages 25 - 45 Other Dk/Ref AZ, FL, and PA June 16, 2020 Spanish Language Latinx voters, Mix of Gender, Ages 25 - 35

Ke Key Findings 1. FEELINGS. There is a mixed bag of feelings voters have towards the November election. Though Hopeful is the highest rated feeling at 32%, it is followed by Anxious (14%), Discouraged (13%), and Nervous (13%). The hopeful attitudes are a significant improvement from the concerns expressed in focus groups and represent an increased morale in progressive voters. 2. COVID-19. 76% of voters believe the corona virus is likely to have an influence on the November election, leading many to pursue safer alternatives to voting. It is the dominating context of this election cycle and must be considered when developing VBM messaging. 3. VOTE BY MAIL PREFERENCE. In our focus groups many POC voters found it much easier to vote in person. Now, 48% say they are likely to vote by mail, with 59% of AAPI voters stating that voting by mail is their current voting preference. 4. VOTING DIFFICULTY. Given the national context of what we are experiencing, it’s no surprise our highest rated message was COVID-19, which 53% of POC voters rated as an 8 – 10, followed by Increased Turnout (49%), and Less Fraud (47%). Here again we see a difference of opinion between the different people of color. AA and AAPI voters rated the COVID-19 message the highest at 58%, whereas Latinx voters rated it much lower at 48%. 5. COMMUNITY DIFFERENCES. We were able to increase Strongly Favor vote by mail choice by 5% for the upcoming November election, with Latinx and AAPI voters both seeing 6% increase in their support. The biggest jump in vote by mail attitudes we saw was in likelihood to vote by mail in November if there was still no COVID treatment available. Overall 10% shifted to Very Likely to vote by mail if COVID-19 was still a threat in November, highlighting the health anxiety that exists in these communities.

What does the experience from the primary tell you about what to expect in the General Election?

De Defining Audience ces Ba Base Shi Shifter ers Bl Black Voters La Latinx x Voters AAPI Voters AAP LG LGBTQ Voters • Hopeful • Hopeful • Hopeful • Hopeful • Hopeful • Hopeful Top 3 • Anxious • Nervous • Nervous • Anxious • Anxious • Nervous Feelings • Discouraged • Anxious • Discouraged • Nervous • Discouraged • Anxious • Safe & Healthier • Safe & Healthier • Safe & Healthier • Safe & Healthier • Safe & Healthier • Safe & Healthier Top 3 Reasons • Flexibility • Flexibility • Flexibility • Flexibility • Flexibility • Access to VBM Access Access Access Access Access Flexibility • • • • • • • Lost/Uncounted • Lost/Uncounted • Lost/Uncounted • Lost/Uncounted • Lost/Uncounted • Lost/Uncounted Top 3 Votes Votes Votes Votes Votes Votes Reasons • Prefer in person • Voter Fraud • Voter Fraud • Voter Fraud • Voter Fraud • Voter Fraud to NOT experience • Longer vote • Longer vote • Longer vote • Longer vote • Longer vote VBM • Longer vote counting counting counting counting counting counting • COVID-19 • COVID-19 • COVID-19 • COVID-19 • COVID-19 • COVID-19 Top 3 • Increased • Increased • Increased • Increased • Increased • Increased Persuasive Turnout Turnout Turnout Turnout Turnout Turnout messages • Less Fraud • Less Fraud • Sacrifice • Less Fraud • Less Fraud • POC

6 Messag Me aging Gu Guidan ance. . What to say to encourage POC to vote by mail Anchor to COVID-19 Harness the increasing Demonstrate how the Demonstrate how vote When referencing how and the safety/security hope, optimism, and accessibility of voting by mail ha vote by mail ha has alrea eady has that voting by mail resilience of minority by mail ha has alrea eady re reduced voter fraud. alread alr ady im improved creates. communities. voting the messages increas in ased p par artic icip ipat atio ion vo of under- represented should use locations, communities. statistics, and dates. . MESSAGING PITFALLS TO AVOID Avoid discussing vote by mail as being more convenient. There is a nuanced but important difference between convenience and accessibility. Avoid discussing by mail as a community or social event. While it is sited as something that should be done with children to demonstrate civic responsibility, voting is otherwise perceived as a private experience.

1 Po Poli litical Cli limate 2 Vo Vote By Mail Attitudes 3 Me Messa ssage Testi sting 4 Co Conclusion

Mo Morale toward the upcomi ming elect ction is imp mproving amo mongst POC Total Black Latinx AAPI LGBTQ Hopeful 32% 41% 41% 27% 27% 29% Anxious 14% 9% 9% 17% 17% 17% 17% 13% “I have just been seeing what is happening all over the country with police shootings and protest and it feels like people are actually paying attention now so I’m optimistic that we might actually do the change we have been talking about.”

PO POC voters s are dissa ssatisf sfied with the direction of the country, but level of of dis issatis isfaction ion varie ies between com ommunit itie ies Thinking about the direction in which the country is headed, Regardless of how you have previously voted, do you think of generally speaking, are you very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied, yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, or or very dissatisfied with the direction in which the country is something else? 2% headed? 1% 8% 14% 25% 20% 55% 59% 17% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Democrat Republican Independent Other Don’t know/Ref Very dissatisfied Total Black Latinx AAPI LGBTQ Total Black Latinx AAPI LGBTQ Total Democrat 59% 74% 54% 45% 71% Total satisfied 22% 19% 25% 23% 22% Total Republican 17% 6% 22% 25% 9% Total dissatisfied 76% 79% 73% 75% 75% Independent 25% 20% 23% 31% 20% Don’t know/Ref 3% 3% 3% 2% 3%

Tr Trump disapproval does not translate to Democrat approval Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States? Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way that Democrats 2% are handling their job in the United States Congress? 9% 5% 16% 12% 23% 12% 65% 35% 21% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know/Ref Strongly disapprove Don’t know/Ref Total Total Black Latinx AAPI LGBTQ Black Latinx AAPI LGBTQ Total approve 51% 58% 49% 44% 63% Total approve 21% 12% 25% 28% 9% Total disapprove 77% 86% 72% 69% 88% Total disapprove 44% 36% 48% 48% 32% Don’t know/Ref 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% Don’t know/Ref 5% 6% 4% 8% 5%

La Lack k of confidence in the integrity of this election Thinking about the presidential election in November, how confident, if at all, are you that the election will be conducted fairly and accurately? Not confident 44% 13% 19% 28% 36% Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not confident at all Don’t know/Ref Total Black Latinx AAPI LGBTQ Very confident 19% 18% 20% 18% 23% Somewhat confident 36% 38% 35% 37% 27% Not too confident 28% 28% 28% 30% 31% Not confident at all 13% 13% 14% 10% 16% Don’t know/Ref 3% 3% 3% 5% 3%

What don’t you trust about the vote by mail process?

What don’t you trust about the vote by mail process?

14 What does the experience from the primary tell you about what to expect in the General Election?

15 1 Po Political climate 2 Vo Vote By Mail Attitudes 3 Me Messa ssage Testi sting 4 Co Conclusion