COLORADO SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS February - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 COLORADO SURVEY OF LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS February 26 th – 27 th , 2018

2 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Methodology Ø Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 647n autodial survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in the state of Colorado. Ø The interviews were conducted from February 26 th – 27 th , 2018. Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.85% at the 95% confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population. Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past voter turnout demographics for a Republican primary election in Colorado. Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project, and Courtney Sievers was the project director.

3 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Survey Demographics 49% 51% 47% 26% 14% 7% 6% Male Female 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 10% 41% 34% 90% 22% 3% Republican Unaffiliated Very Conservative Moderate Refused Conservative

4 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Survey Demographics 71% 11% 8% 7% 2% 1% Married Widowed Separated or Single, Never Single, Living with No Opinion Divorced Been Married Partner

5 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018

6 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Congressional Districts Sedgwick Logan Jackson Larimer Moffat Phillips Weld Routt 2 Morgan Grand Boulder Broomfield Washington Yuma Rio Blanco 6 Adams Gilpin 7 1 Clear Creek Denver Arapahoe Eagle Summit Garfield Jefferson Elbert Douglas Kit Carson Pitkin Lake Park 4 Mesa Lincoln Teller Delta 3 Cheyenne El Paso Chaffee 5 Gunnison Fremont Kiowa Montrose Crowley Ouray Pueblo Custer Saguache Hinsdale San Miguel Bent Prowers Otero San Juan Dolores Mineral Huerfano Rio Grande Alamosa Montezuma Las Animas Baca La Plata Costilla Archuleta Conejos Legend Denver Metro Area Inset Congressional District 4 Weld 1 Boulder 6 2 Broomfield 3 Adams 2 4 7 Gilpin 5 Jefferson 1 Denver 6 7 4 Clear Creek Arapahoe Colorado Congressional Districts

7 VOTER ISSUE PREFERENCE

8 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? 43% 13% 10% 9% 9% 8% 5% 3% ENFORCING INVESTING ROADS KEEPING LID ON IMPROVE PUBLIC CREATE JOBS REDUCING COST ADDRESS UNSURE NO FEDERAL AND STATE EDUCATION GROW ECONOMY OF HEALTHCARE PROBLEMS OPINION IMMIGRATION TRANSPORTATION GOVERNMENT CREATED LAWS SPENDING LEGALIZING MARIJUANA

9 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? 42% 10% 7% 11% 9% 9% 4% 8% WOMEN 3% 44% 15% 13% 7% 9% 7% 2% MEN ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA UNSURE NO OPINION

10 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? 2% 30% 20% 7% 19% 4% 12% 6% MODERATE 2% 41% 14% 11% 7% 11% 8% 6% CONSERVATIVE 56% 6% 11% 6% 9% 5% 5% VERY 2% CONSERVATIVE ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA UNSURE NO OPINION

11 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 And among the following list of issues, which do you think is the top priority that the Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most? 44% 13% 10% 11% 6% 6% 3% 6% 65+ 37% 15% 14% 6% 10% 9% 4% 6% 55-64 47% 11% 6% 6% 14% 9% 5% 1% 45-54 48% 6% 7% 11% 11% 9% 8% 35-44 43% 10% 0% 19% 15% 13% 0% 18-34 ENFORCING FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS INVESTING ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION KEEPING LID ON STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING IMPROVE PUBLIC EDUCATION CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE ADDRESS PROBLEMS CREATED LEGALIZING MARIJUANA UNSURE NO OPINION

12 WALKER STAPLETON IMAGE RATING

13 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Walker Stapleton? 23% 33% 38% 35% 28% 28% 23% 22% 32% 13% 14% 12% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 43% 37% 32% 23% 30% 29% HEARD OF, NO OPINION 26% 21% 20% 19% 12% 9% NEVER HEARD OF VERY CONSERVATIVE MODERATE CONSERVATIVE

14 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Walker Stapleton? 23% 33% 35% 31% 30% 29% 26% 25% 32% 13% 15% 9% SUPPORT SAME SEX OPPOSE SAME SEX FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 37% 31% 29% 26% HEARD OF, NO OPINION 24% 23% 22% NEVER HEARD OF 10% PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

15 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Walker Stapleton? 23% 33% 32% 13% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 43% 40% 35% 34% 34% 33% 29% 28% 29% 28% 27% 25% 21% 18% 18% 14% 14% 13% 10% 7% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

16 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Walker Stapleton Image Rating Time Series “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Walker Stapleton?” March 2017 through February 2018 35% 34% 34% 33% 32% 31% 30% 29% 29% 28% 28% 27% 25% 22% 22% 14% 13% 12% 12% 11% March 17 June 17 October 17 January 18 February 18 Favorable Unfavorable Heard of, No Opinion Never Heard Of

17 CYNTHIA COFFMAN IMAGE RATING

18 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Coffman? 20% 23% 39% 21% 32% 25% 24% 23% 21% 36% 20% 16% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE 36% UNFAVORABLE 35% 35% 29% 25% 24% 23% 21% 20% HEARD OF, NO OPINION 19% 17% 16% NEVER HEARD OF VERY CONSERVATIVE MODERATE CONSERVATIVE

19 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Coffman? 20% 23% 36% 33% 29% 21% 25% 23% 20% 18% 36% 15% SUPPORT SAME-SEX OPPOSE SAME-SEX FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 35% 33% 30% HEARD OF, NO OPINION 23% 23% 22% 19% 16% NEVER HEARD OF PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

20 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Coffman? 20% 23% 21% 36% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 42% 41% 34% 33% 30% 29% 29% 28% 27% 26% 25% 24% 23% 23% 21% 20% 18% 11% 10% 5% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

21 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Cynthia Coffman Image Rating Time Series “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Coffman?” March 2017 through February 2018 36% 33% 32% 31% 29% 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 21% 20% 19% 14% 2% March 17 October 17 January 18 February 18 Favorable Unfavorable Heard of, No Opinion Never Heard Of

22 VICTOR MITCHELL IMAGE RATING

23 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Victor Mitchell? 11% 11% 48% 51% 45% 32% 28% 30% 15% 12% 11% 7% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE 50% 48% UNFAVORABLE 40% 36% 30% 28% HEARD OF, NO OPINION 17% 16% 8% 9% 11% 8% NEVER HEARD OF VERY CONSERVATIVE MODERATE CONSERVATIVE

24 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Victor Mitchell? 11% 11% 48% 49% 35% 31% 29% 22% 30% 15% 11% 9% SUPPORT SAME-SEX OPPOSE SAME-SEX FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 48% 46% 31% HEARD OF, NO OPINION 28% 17% 11% 10% 9% NEVER HEARD OF PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE

25 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Victor Mitchell? 11% 11% 48% 30% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF, NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF 58% 55% 47% 47% 38% 34% 31% 26% 25% 25% 25% 15% 13% 11% 11% 9% 10% 6% 5% 8% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

26 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Victor Mitchell Image Rating Time Series “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Victor Mitchell?” March 2017 through February 2018 73% 70% 57% 48% 30% 27% 19% 17% 8% 11% 6% 6% 11% 7% 5% 4% March 17 June 17 October 17 February 18 Favorable Unfavorable Heard of, No Opinion Never Heard Of

27 DOUG ROBINSON IMAGE RATING

28 Colorado GOP Primary Survey, 647n, +/-3.85%, Feb 2018 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doug Robinson? 9% 11% 49% 47% 48% 34% 29% 32% 11% 12% 7% 10% MEN WOMEN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 51% 49% 38% 38% 31% HEARD OF, NO OPINION 30% 19% 13% 8% 8% 10% 5% NEVER HEARD OF VERY CONSERVATIVE MODERATE CONSERVATIVE