Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments MODARIA WG 5 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments “MODARIA” WG 5 – Uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides Vienna. November, 9th, 2015

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges The context “ As the effective dose cannot be measured directly, values of this quantity must be inferred with the aid of models, usually involving environmental, metabolic, and dosimetric components. Ideally, these models and the values chosen for their parameters should be realistic, so that the results they give can be described as ‘best estimates’. Where practicable, estimates and discussion should be made of the uncertainties inherent in these results” ICRP 103 (par. 320) International Commission on Radiological Protection. The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP Publication 103. 2007.

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges First meeting 13 Presentations of general considerations on uncertainty calculations and of codes were carried out within the group: R. Heling – Communication of results which include uncertainties C. Mourlon & F. Vermorel – General considerations on uncertainties I. Bonchuk – Considerations on pdfs in TRS472 and other docs G. Shen – Sensitivity considerations in Impact S. Chouhan – Features of CSA-DRL Code C. Yu – RESRAD Probabilistic Analysis Methodology M. Iosjpe – Sensitivity analysis in marine modeling B. Zorko – Uncertainties in environmental monitoring data V. Avramov – Environmental data from Bulgarian NPP F. Fiengo – Uncertainties analysis by using MCMC P. Krajewski – Uncertainties analysis using Crystal ball C. Mourlon & F. Vermorel – Symbiose Juan C. Mora – CROM 7

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Second meeting (Madrid - Ciemat) 3 courses + 1 technical visit (Almaraz NPP): Juraj Duran - SU_MMC P. Krajewski – Uncertainties analysis using Crystal ball Gene Shen – Impact Juan C. Mora – CROM 7 Discussion on the tasks: Correlations – S.L. Chouhan A priori sensitivity analysis – L. Marang Pdfs for Symbiose – C. Mourlon Methodology – A. Curti

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Third meeting 14 Presentations + joint meetings (WG2 + WG4): I. Bonchuk “Atmospheric release” P. Carny, D. Suchon “ESTE code” D. da Costa “Genii” S. Chouhan “Correlation factors and SA” A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt “Communication in routine releases” D. Galeriu “Romanian experience with CANDU” J.C. Mora “Chinon – CROM7” C. Mourlon, F. Vermorel “Chinon – Symbiose” C. Mourlon “The Forge” G. Proehl “Revision of SRS 19” J. Simmonds “Realistic retrospective dose assessment” K. Thiesen “Data Sets for Uncertainty Analysis” J. Tomas “Comparison of models and data including uncertainties” C. Yu “Conservatism of the assessments”

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Fourth meeting (Bratislava - Slovenské elektrárne ) 12 Presentations + 1 Technical visit (Mochovce NPP): Anna Maria Blixt Buhr “PREDO – PREdiction of DOses from normal releases of radionuclides to the environment” Rodolfo Avila and Anna Maria Blixt Buhr “Sensitivity and Uncertainty” Čarný P. et al. “Implementation of variable analysis and probabilistic approach to calculation of radiological impacts in case of normal operational effluents” Čarný P. et al. “The realistic scenario from a French NPP (Chinon, liquid release) - preliminary result using ESTE AI” JC. Mora “Dose assessments” P. Kraweski “Scenario from a French NPP (liquid release). Chinon B site” F. Vermorel and C. Mourlon “The CHINON NPP realistic scenario - consideration of the atmospheric releases” D. da Costa “Dose Assessment. Discharge of liquid effluents from Chinon NPP presenting the results obtained by using GENII” E.Smejkalová et al. “Case study - application of remote sensing: from satellite data to classified areas with agricultural crops up to final use in ESTE Annual Impacts” B. Zorko “Liquid effluents – Model calculations” C. Mourlon and F. Vermorel “The INPRO atmospheric scenario - Preliminary results” A. Curti et al. “Communication of Results of Calculations which Include Uncertainty Analysis.”

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Fifth meeting 18 Presentations + 2 joint meetings (WG4 + WG10): F. Vermorel “The CHINON NPP realistic scenario ” I. Bonchuk “Chinon scenario by using revised SRS19” L. Lipták “Chinon results using ESTE AI” C. Mourlon “CHINON NPP results using SYMBIOSE ” C. Mourlon (on behalf of M. Cornu) “Deriving pdfs fos Symbiose” C. Yu “Deriving pdfs for RESRAD” A. Melintescu “Deriving pdfs for H3” V. Nicoulaud-Gouin “Sensivity analysis using different methods” T. Tanaka “Sensitivity analysis – Ongoing task” P.M. Ravi “Bhabha atomic centre activities – Providing in situ data!” S. Chouan “Uncertainties and correlations using Cs137 values” B. Zorko “Environmental monitoring data in dose assessments” B. Howard (WG4 leader) “SRS19 update for animal TF” A. Blixt-Buhr “Methodology ideas” A. Curti “Communication in routine releases”

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Sixth meeting (Lyon – EdF/CIDEN) 13 Presentations + Technical visit (Bugey NPP) M. Taylor “EdF D&D activities” D. Bilbault “EdF/CIDEN environment group” F. Vermorel and C. Mourlon “SYMBIOSE results on the CHINON NPP realistic scenario” P. Carny et al. “The realistic scenario from a French NPP, Chinon- results using ESTE AI” B. Zorko “Uncertainty analysis of data obtained by gamma-spectrometry near the detection limit in radioactivity environmental monitoring programme” V. Nicoulaud-Gouin “Sensitivity analysis on the Chinon scenario” T. Tanaka “Methods and procedure for performing sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters in the used models” A. Curti et al. “Communication of results of doe calculations which include uncertainty analysis” P. M. Ravi et al. “Summary of calculation of deterministic and probabilistic dose based on Chinon scenario” F. Vermorel and C. Mourlon “SYMBIOSE Presentations” (4)

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Plenary meetings - 25 Participants (15 countries) Interim meetings – 12 Participants (6 countries)

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Identified tasks � Identify possible tools and methods for uncertainty and variability analysis applicable to dose assessments methods and codes for routine radioactive discharges. � Identify cases and scenarios where information on uncertainty and variability of parameters is available for the testing of methodologies. � Discuss the distributions of parameters and data. � Carry out exercises where sensitive parameters could be identified and analysed, and perform an intercomparison of different methods for uncertainty and variability calculations. � Discuss how the results of calculations of this kind could be presented and finally interpreted by decision makers.

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Identified tasks Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr,) Identify possible tools (All) Identify scenarios. Hypothetic & Realistic discharges scenario (Iurii Bonchuk, F. Vermorel, C. Mourlon) Level of conservatism of assessments (D. da Costa Lauria and I. Bonchuk) Sources of uncertainties (C. Mourlon, F. Vermorel) Sensitivity analysis (T. Tanaka and V. Nicoulaud-Gouin, L. Marang ) Distributions of parameters and data to be used (C. Mourlon and I. Bonchuk) Identification of correlation factors (S. Chouhan and P. Krajewski) Environmental monitoring data (B. Zorko and P. Chyly) Applications: deterministic and probabilistic assessments (SAUA) (All) Communication of results (routine releases including SAUA) (A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr)

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr) Prospective Retrospective Deterministic Source term: fixed as designed Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Parameters: best estimates Source term: derived from reliable measurements or Habit data: 95th percentile for the major contributor estimated (best estimate the rest) Parameters: measured and/or best estimates Dose coefficients: fixed Habit data: Preferably local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed Probabilistic Source term: fixed as designed Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Parameters: pdfs Source term: derived from reliable measurements or Habit data: fixed (As in Deterministic case, not estimated variability – TO BE TESTED) Parameters: Preferably pdfs Dose coefficients: fixed Habit data: Local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Identify scenarios. Hypothetic & Realistic discharges scenario (Iurii Bonchuk, F. Vermorel, C. Mourlon)

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Distributions of parameters and data to be used (I. Bonchuk and C. Mourlon) • Joint meeting with WG4 (2013): Identified the need to have a pdf for certain parameters • Anca Melintescu (2014) (H3 pdfs) • Charlie Yu (2014) (RESRAD Probabilistic Analysis. Input Distributions — PDFs vs. CDFs)

MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Identification of correlation factors (S. Chouhan and P. Krajewski)