MODARIA Working Group 9 population modelling - Status and meeting outcomes - Frédéric Alonzo (IRSN), Jordi Vives i Batlle (SCK-CEN EN) Third Technical Meeting of the IAEA Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments program - MODARIA IAEA, Vienna 14 November 2014
MODARIA working group 9 � Main objectives: � to describe a methodology for extrapolating from laboratory-derived effects endpoints at the organism level to ecologically relevant population responses � to provide generic population models for radiological assessment on a range of representative taxonomic groups based on a review of existing population models and a development of new population models � to develop scenarios for model applications and inter-comparisons � MODARIA WG9 capitalises on new knowledge and developments from population modelling tasks in the continuation of two programmes: IAEA EMRAS II programme and EC-funded STAR project � The population modelling group is coordinated by Frederic Alonzo and Jordi Vives i Batlle
Task 1: M ethodology for population modelling (1/2) Subtasks: � 1.1 - Definition of “population” (model) in the context of radiological protection → Previously agreed definitions. → Modelling progresses mainly on population defined as a group of individuals of the same species collectively responding to a common constant level of radiation stress (in the perspective of testing dose criteria); → implications for testing DCRLs criteria submitted for publication in Ecological modelling (21/10/2014) and presented at ICRER (11/09/2014) → During this meeting, we briefly discussed the need to accompany the definition with necessary cautions in the final report in order to avoid misuse/misinterpretations in the future.
Task 1: M ethodology for population modelling (2/2) Subtasks: � 1.2 – Mechanistic modelling to address different exposure types (chronic and acute; alpha and gamma etc.) → DEBtox successfully applied to nematodes exposed to chronic gamma presented by F. Alonzo in June 2014 → T. Sazykina and A. Kryshev presented an analytical solution to their population modelling approach with damage repair allowing incorporation of acute and chronic effects � 1.5 – Extrapolation of population modelling to wildlife species → J. Vives i Batlle presented a simple exploratory illustration of the importance of reproduction seasonality for population sensitivity to radiation
Task 2: S et of population model parameters and databases (1/3) Subtasks: � 2.1 - Guide to parameter collection from the literature → During this meeting, production of the final version of the Excel template to accommodate data with detailed references → Agreement to fully populate the template for February 2015 DATA ID REF ID Wildife Representative of Life stage or Species latin Species Duration of life stage (including hatching Age a group which ICRP RAP? reference to age name common name time for the egg stage) value n Deviation Min Max Unit Notes value n Dev 1 1 Amphibia Frog Bufo americanus American toad 2 2 Amphibia Frog Rana japonica Japanese Brown frog 3 3 Amphibia Frog Rana sylvatica Wood frog 4 4 Amphibia Frog Rana sylvatica Wood frog 5 5 Amphibia Frog Rana aurora Red-legged frog 6 5 Amphibia Frog Rana temporaria Common frog 7 5 Amphibia Frog Bufo boreas Western toad 8 6 Amphibia Frog Rana sylvatica Wood frog 9 7 Amphibia Frog Rana sylvatica Wood frog 10 8 Amphibia Frog Gastrophryne carol Eastern narrowmouth toad
Task 2: S et of population model parameters and databases (2/3) Lumbricus terrestris average life span 32 months weeks (Ref 2) Subtasks: average time to hatching 4 months (Ref 3) average time to first reproduction 8 months (Ref 3) � 2.2 - Collection of life history, Parameterization age 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 age class (i) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ecology parameters and average survival (P i ) for females 0.79 0.79 0.98 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.94 Proportion of females to total adults (a) - - - - 1 1 1 radiation effects datasets for hatch success (b) - - - - 0.71 0.71 0.71 proportion reproducing (mating and fertilization c) - - - - 1 1 1 animals species eggs/mature female (E i ) - - - - 3 5.8 5.8 per capita fertility (F i ) 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 → Data already filled for some Lumbricus terrestris age-based matrix model taxonomic groups (including time unit: 2 months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 several ICRP RAPs, such as Frog 2 0.79 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0.79 0 0 0 0 0 by K. Stark) 4 0 0 0.98 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0.98 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0.94 0 0 → Presentation by F. Alonzo of 7 0 0 0 0 0 0.94 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.94 a template to record how 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 parameters are used to build 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Leslie matrices 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.79 0.79 0.98 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 References ref1 Butt, 1993 ref2 Butt et al., 1994 ref3 Svendsen et al., 2005
Task 2: S et of population model parameters and databases (3/3) Subtasks: � 2.3 - Collection of life history, ecology parameters and radiation effects datasets for plant species → S. Norden presented a study on chronic radiation effects in macroalgae by the UK Environmental Agency, with significant effects on reproduction and growth. → Identification of a irradiation dataset for parameterization of a grassland population model � 2.4 – Selection of existing plant models → Presentation by J. Vives i Batlle of population modelling progress in the duckweed Lemna minor in June 2014 → Search for existing macroalgae and grass models
Task 3: Deliverables Subtasks: � 3.1 – Final report → Agreement on table of content and distribution of work among participants, with first draft version expected during mid-term meeting � 3.2 – Access database → Parameters for population modelling to be incorporated into an Access database and published if possible as a data article after the end of MODARIA
Outline of Working Group 9 Report Title: Modelling radiation effects on wildlife – from organisms to populations � Introduction � Population modelling methodologies � Models for animals and plants � Application of radiation effects considerations within population modelling � Applicability of population modelling in a radiation protection regulatory context � Discussion/Conclusions/future directions � References
Next meeting Vienna IAEA headquarters second half of June 2015
Acknowledgements We acknowledge the IAEA for supporting the activities of the working group 9 under the MODARIA programme
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