WG Leader: Juan Carlos Mora IAEA Scientific Secretary: Diego Telleria Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments “MODARIA” WG 5 – Uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides. Vienna. Nov, 10th, 2014
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges 19 th -22 nd of May, 2014 INTERIM MEETING IN BRATISLAVA
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges The context “ As the effective dose cannot be measured directly, values of this quantity must be inferred with the aid of models, usually involving environmental, metabolic, and dosimetric components. Ideally, these models and the values chosen for their parameters should be realistic, so that the results they give can be described as ‘best estimates’. Where practicable, estimates and discussion should be made of the uncertainties inherent in these results” ICRP 103 (par. 320) International Commission on Radiological Protection. The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP Publication 103. 2007.
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges The context • Pawel Krajewski • “Uncertainties and Sensitivity Analysis: A review” Under development
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Identified tasks � Identify possible tools and methods for uncertainty and variability analysis applicable to dose assessments methods and codes for routine radioactive discharges. � Identify cases and scenarios where information on uncertainty and variability of parameters is available for the testing of methodologies. � Discuss the distributions of parameters and data. � Carry out exercises where sensitive parameters could be identified and analysed, and perform an intercomparison of different methods for uncertainty and variability calculations. � Discuss how the results of calculations of this kind could be presented and finally interpreted by decision makers.
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Identified tasks Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr) Identify possible tools (All) Distributions of parameters and data to be used (I. Bonchuk and C. Mourlon) Identify scenarios. Hypothetic & Realistic discharges scenario (Iurii Bonchuk, F. Vermorel, C. Mourlon) Level of conservatism of assessments (D. da Costa Lauria and J. Shen) Sources of uncertainties (C. Mourlon, F. Vermorel) Sensitivity analysis (L. Marang � T. Tanaka) Identification of correlation factors (S. Chouhan and P. Krajewski) Environmental monitoring data (B. Zorko and P. Chyly) Applications: deterministic and probabilistic assessments (SAUA) (All) Communication of results (routine releases including SAUA) (A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr)
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr) Prospective Retrospective Deterministic Source term: fixed hypothetical Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Parameters: best estimates Source term: derived from measurements Habit data: 95th percentile for the major contributor (best estimate the rest) Parameters: measured and/or best estimates Dose coefficients: fixed Habit data: Preferably local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed Probabilistic Source term: fixed hypothetical Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Parameters: pdfs Source term: derived from measurements Habit data: fixed (not variability) Parameters: Preferably pdfs Dose coefficients: fixed Habit data: Local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr) Prospective Retrospective Deterministic Source term: fixed hypothetical Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Parameters: best estimates Source term: derived from measurements Habit data: 95th percentile for the major contributor (best estimate the rest) Parameters: measured and/or best estimates Dose coefficients: fixed Habit data: Preferably local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed Probabilistic Source term: fixed hypothetical Environmental concentrations: based on measurements and/or estimations Parameters: pdfs Source term: derived from measurements Habit data: fixed (not variability) Parameters: Preferably pdfs Dose coefficients: fixed Habit data: Local survey (focused in the representative person). Fixed Dose coefficients: fixed
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Methodology (JC Mora, A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr) • Benjamin Zorko • “How to use in retrospective assessments values below decision threshold?” Under development
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Identify possible tools (All) • CROM • IMPACT • SYMBIOSE • PREDO – ECOLEGO • ESTE – IA • CRYSTAL BALL
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Distributions of parameters and data to be used (I. Bonchuk and C. Mourlon) • Joint meeting with WG4: Identified the need to have a pdf for certain parameters (N>20 � GM and GSD) Derivation of pdfs from TRS472 (Evaluating variability and uncertainty in radiological impact assessment using SYMBIOSE. M. Simon-Cornu et al. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity. Volume 139, January 2015, Pages 91–102) • Dan Galeriu and Anca Melintescu (H3 and C14)
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Identify scenarios. Hypothetic & Realistic discharges scenario (Iurii Bonchuk, F. Vermorel, C. Mourlon) • Chinon NPP (France) • Hypothetical scenario (EMRAS II + INPRO)
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Identify scenarios. Hypothetic & Realistic discharges scenario (Iurii Bonchuk, F. Vermorel, C. Mourlon) • Presentation of results
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Identification of correlation factors (S. Chouhan and P. Krajewski)
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Applications: deterministic and probabilistic assessments (SAUA) (All)
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Level of conservatism of assessments (D. da Costa Lauria and J. Shen) • Iurii Bonchuk • “How conservative are conservative assessments?”
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Sensitivity analysis (L. Marang � T. Tanaka) • V. Nicoulaud (IRSN) • Sensitivity analysis of an environmental impact assessment, using Morris indices and Spearman coefficients. Example on a liquid release scenario for Chinon NPP • Sensitivity analysis of a radionuclide transfer model describing contaminated vegetation in Fukushima prefecture, using Morris and Sobol' indices
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Progress Communication of results (routine releases including SAUA) (A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt-Buhr) • Previous generic work identified • Task will be focused in communication of results including uncertainties for routine releases.
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges First meeting 13 Presentations of general considerations on uncertainty calculations and of every code were carried out within the group: R. Heling – Communication of results which include uncertainties C. Mourlon & F. Vermorel – General considerations on uncertainties I. Bonchuk – Considerations on pdfs in TRS472 and other docs G. Shen – Sensitivity considerations in Impact S. Chouhan – Features of CSA-DRL Code C. Yu – RESRAD Probabilistic Analysis Methodology M. Iosjpe – Sensitivity analysis in marine modeling B. Zorko – Uncertainties in environmental monitoring data V. Avramov – Environmental data from Bulgarian NPP F. Fiengo – Uncertainties analysis by using MCMC P. Krajewski – Uncertainties analysis using Crystal ball C. Mourlon & F. Vermorel – Symbiose Juan C. Mora – CROM 7
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Second meeting 3 courses: Juraj Duran - SU_MMC P. Krajewski – Uncertainties analysis using Crystal ball Gene Shen – Impact Juan C. Mora – CROM 7 Discussion on the tasks: Correlations – S.L. Chouhan A priori sensitivity analysis – L. Marang Pdfs for Symbiose – C. Mourlon Methodology – A. Curti
MODARIA. WG 5 – Routine Discharges Third meeting 14 Presentations + 2 joint meetings (WG2 and WG4): I. Bonchuk “Atmospheric release” P. Carny, D. Suchon “ESTE code” D. da Costa “Genii” S. Chouhan “Correlation factors and SA” A. Curti, Anna Mª Blixt “Communication in routine releases” D. Galeriu “Romanian experience with CANDU” J.C. Mora “Chinon – CROM7” C. Mourlon, F. Vermorel “Chinon – Symbiose” C. Mourlon “The Forge” G. Proehl “Revision of SRS 19” J. Simmonds “Realistic retrospective dose assessment” K. Thiesen “Data Sets for Uncertainty Analysis” J. Tomas “Comparison of models and data including uncertainties” C. Yu “Conservatism of the assessments”
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