Trade Sustainability Impact Assessments (TSIAs) in support of negotiations of DCFTAs between the EU and respectively the Kingdom of Morocco and the Republic of Tunisia Public Meeting, DG Trade Brussels, 09 April 2013 Ecorys
Agenda 1. Approach and conceptual framework 2. Methodological developments 3. Consultation plan and stakeholders 4. Preliminary Screening on Key Sustainability Issues 5. Planning 6. Questions and contact info
1. Approach and conceptual framework General approach to the studies based on three phases: 0. Inception 1. Overall analysis of the sustainability impacts • Scenario analysis and CGE modelling • Additional quantitative and qualitative analyses • Screening and scoping analysis 2. Sectorial Trade SIA analysis • In-depth analysis of selected sectors and horizontal issues • Causal Chain Analysis (CCA) • Literature review, Partial Equilibrium modelling, interviews 3. Policy recommendations and flanking measures • Causal Chain Analysis • Consultation and dissemination (throughout all phases) • Final report
1. Approach and conceptual framework A general approach based on three phases Phase Methodology - Pillar Screening and scoping 0 Inception Scenario and CGE Additional quantitative and qualitative 1 Overall analysis Consultation and dissemination Causal Chain Analysis (CCA) analysis Sectorial analysis 2 Sectorial Trade SIA analysis Policy recommendations and 3 flanking measures
1. Approach and conceptual framework 1. Screening and scoping 2. Scenario analysis & CGE 3. Add’l quantitative & qualitative analysis › Social (quantitative & qualitative) › Human rights (qualitative) › Environmental (quantitative & qualitative) 4. In-depth analysis › Sectorial analysis › Horizontal issues 5. Causal Chain Analysis 6. Consultation and dissemination
2. Methodology CGE modelling specification 1. Country selection 1. EU-28 4. Egypt 7. Turkey (including Croatia) 2. Morocco 5. Rest of North Africa 8. Rest of Africa (Algeria, Libya,) 3. Tunisia 6. Middle East (excl. 9. Rest of the World Gulf States and Iran) (Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Yemen, Israel) 2. Base year › Adjusted actual projection to 2011, based on 2007 (GTAP 8.0) data
2. Methodology 3. Sector specifications Nr. Sector content (TSIA Adapted) Nr. Sector content (TSIA Adapted) 1 Grains and crops 24 Electronics, computers 2 Veg, fruit &- nuts 25 Other machinery and equipment 3 Other crops 26 Other manufacturing 4 Animal products 27 Utilities 5 Forestry products 6 Fish products 28 Construction 7 Energy 29 Trade 8 Other minerals 30 Other transport 9 Livestock and Meat Products 31 Water transport 10 Vegetable oils and fats 32 Air transport 11 Other processed food 33 Communication 12 Beverages and tobacco 34 Finance and insurance 13 Textiles 35 Business and ICT 14 Wearing apparel 36 Personal and recreational services 15 Leather products 37 Public and other services 16 Wood, paper, publishing 17 Petro-chemicals 18 Chemicals, rubber, plastic products 19 Ceramics, cement, etc. 20 Primary metals 21 Fabricated metals 22 Motor vehicles 23 Other transport
2. Methodology CGE modelling specification: Morocco Scenario 1 : Liberalisation towards the October 2012 agreement › Tariffs A full 100% liberalisation of all agricultural products and processed agricultural products, fish and fishery products, except for sensitive › Services liberalisation No services liberalisation is modelled › Other non-tariff measures No other NTMs liberalisation is modelled Scenario 2 : Morocco – DCFTA liberalisation scenario › No tariff reductions (tariffs already 0%) › Services liberalisation 3% reductions in TCEs on Morocco -> EU 13% reduction in TCEs on EU -> Morocco
2. Methodology CGE modelling specification: Tunisia Scenario 1 : Tunisia – DCFTA liberalisation scenario In baseline: Morocco October 2012 agreement • Tariffs › Tariff reduction EU into Tunisia: 80% liberalization for agricultural sectors. › Tariff reduction Tunisia into the EU: 95% liberalization for agricultural sectors. › No tariff reductions in industrial goods • Services liberalisation › 3% reductions in TCEs on Tunisia -> EU 8% reduction in TCEs on EU -> Tunisia ›
2. Methodology Other non-tariff measures › Sectors are modeled in either of three scenarios: 1. Ambitious liberalization scenario; 2. Limited liberalization scenario; 3. No liberalization foreseen; › All agriculture & manufacturing sectors: trade facilitation – However, an asymmetric liberalization is modeled: ◦ More ambitious liberalization for Moroccan/Tunisian side (regulatory approximation) – Compliance costs taken into account
2. Methodology Outputs of overall analysis (Phase 1) Theme Indicator 1. Aggregate results a) Wages (skilled and unskilled) b) GDP c) Total exports d) Total imports e) National income f) Terms of trade 2. Sector results a) Bilateral exports b) Output c) Value added d) Employment (skilled and unskilled) 3. Environment variables a) Emissions b) Agricultural c) Fisheries 4. Social variables a) Unskilled wage changes b) Labour displacement c) Measure of inequality
2. Methodology Social and environmental effects – additional analysis • Objective: to obtain more detailed, disaggregated information on potential effects in these 2 spheres • Approach: • A combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis • Quantitative analysis: • Building on CGE results; • Combining them with new data sources and techniques.
2. Methodology Quantifying social impact in Tunisia • DCFTA likely to affect relative prices (e.g. of food) – modelled in CGE. Effects split into: › Consumption effect : prices of households’ consumption basket will be affected: especially important for the poor › Income / wage effect : income determined by changing wages and – e.g. for food producers – also sectorial prices: especially relevant in rural areas • Simulation taking 2010 household budget survey for Tunisia as a baseline • Outcome of analysis: distribution of welfare effects of the DCFTA › poverty indicators (incidence, gap/depth, severity) › inequality indicators (Gini, decile ratio) › Identification of vulnerable groups (e.g. regional, gender differences, household types) Quantitative analysis is not possible for Morocco due to lack of household- level data
2. Methodology Quantification of environmental impacts • Inputs: › CGE results: sectorial outputs & CO2 emissions › air pollution intensity per sector › data / methodology for estimating externalities from environmental burden • Outcomes › Pollution change (% & tonnes): SO2, NOx and particulate matter in Morocco › Computed values (in EUR) of external costs (welfare changes due to effects on human health) associated with change in air emissions. › Compute values of total external costs of CO2 emission released in Morocco and in the EU.
2. Methodology Qualitative analysis › Social aspects › Decent work agenda, interaction with ILO core labour standards, equality › Environmental aspects › Land, water and other pollution, biodiversity, etc. › Human rights issues › Broad range of issues, following Walker (2009), looking e.g. at complementarity between trade law and human rights law, role of DCFTA in growth and resources for HR, competitive pressure and HR risks • Extensive literature review • Critical interpretation of CGE and other simulation results at the sectorial level • Selective analysis of reporting schemes under relevant international conventions • Consultations with stakeholders
3. Consultations and stakeholders Civil Society landscape in Morocco • Richest and most diversified among Maghreb countries: about 60,000 CSOs in the country • Mainly young structures and concentrated in Rabat and Agadir • Consultation between the public and private sector on trade issues exists, and is chaired by the Ministry of Foreign Trade.
3. Consultations and stakeholders Civil Society landscape in Tunisia • Many new CSOs have emerged since the revolution, most still in development • Difficult to assess the quality of CSOs, but many are very vocal • Government is open to inputs from CSOs – listening actively • Mainly focused on aspects of the political transition • In the context of the DCFTA, the government has also indicated that it wants to involve civil society, but so far, this does not seem to have happened.
3. Consultations and stakeholders Consultation activities Activities Detail 1 Electronic consultation and documentation Continuously http://www.trade-sia.com/morocco/ http://www.trade-sia.com/tunisia/ 2 Public meetings EU 9 April 2013 October 2013 3 Workshop(s) in Morocco & Tunisia 18-30 June 2013 (exact dates t.b.d.) 4 Attendance of other relevant conferences, workshops etc. 5 Personal interviews with individual representatives of civil Continuously society and stakeholders
3. Consultations and stakeholders Website / Email / Feedback form • Websites: www.trade-sia.com/morocco www.trade-sia.com/tunisia • Email: tsiamorocco@ecorys.com tsiatunisia@ecorys.com • Facebook page “tsiamorocco” “tsiatunisia”
Recommend
More recommend
