Future Direction of LCS study 2008 AIM Training Workshop, T - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Future Direction of LCS study 2008 AIM Training Workshop, T Tsukuba, Oct 27, 2008 k b O t 27 2008

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 (S-3) [FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] [FY2004 2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan Advisory board ： d b d advice to project Techno-Socio Innovation study Next generation vehicles Green buildings Eco awareness Efficient transportation system Self-sustained city Effective communication Advanced logistics Advanced logistics Decentralized services Decentralized services Dematerialization Dematerialization Transportation Urban structure IT-society Reduction system Target study Development of socio- ion BaU scenario BaU scenario economic scenarios, economic scenarios E Energy saving i Tech. innovation h GHG emissi Valid evaluating counter- 5 EE improvement measures with social- 3 Structure change economic-technology 1 models New energy Effective Equity -1 Life-style change h GHG reduction target Integration Suitable （ eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level ） Intervention Evaluate feasibility of Team scenario GHG reduction target 000 020 050 990 010 20 20 20 20 19 Middle-term Loge-term Target year Target year 5 teams 60 Researchers 60 Researchers Propose options of long-term global warming policy 2

Asian Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 (S-6) [FY2009 2013, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] [FY2009-2013, Global Environmental Research Program, MOE] S-6-2 S-6-4 Diversity Diversity Material Flow Material Flow S-6-1 Scenario Development S-6-3 S-6-5 Policy Transportation Framework Framework Sector Sector Q Quantitative Analysis tit ti A l i Q Qualitative Analysis 3

What are the Asian low carbon societies? What are the Asian low carbon societies? � By the middle of this century (2050), societies B th iddl f thi t (2050) i ti which satisfy the followings; • Accepting drastically transfiguring Asian society and Accepting drastically transfiguring Asian society and economy, • conforming each country’s reduction target that consists with the global low carbon target consists with the global low carbon target, • under the global, national and regional constraints on fossil fuel and renewal energy resources, and land gy resource, • developing various LCS policies based on each country characteristic country characteristic, • also utilizing effectively the co-benefits of LCS policies and neighboring policies.

What are the peculiar and diverse characteristics of the target regions (country)? Expansion and resolution of urban and rural E i d l ti f b d l 1. disparity. Development and specialization of industrial Development and specialization of industrial 2 2. structure. Deployment of urban and inter urban traffic Deployment of urban and inter-urban traffic 3. 3 systems. Regional climate characteristics, building and g , g 4. social infrastructure characteristics. Potentials of renewable energy resources, and 5. developments of their utilizing facilities. d l t f th i tili i f iliti LULC and consequent GHG emissions. 6.

Five domestic factors and the global trade environment that decide the realization of environment that decide the realization of Asian low carbon societies (1)E (1)Energy production, consumption facilities, equipment, and d ti ti f iliti i t d technology: Energy supply facilities, energy-saving technology, and their production system (2)Social infrastructure: Traffic infrastructure/system for LCS (2)Social infrastructure: Traffic infrastructure/system for LCS (3)Human capital: Human resource for developing, managing, and maintaining low carbon societies. Proxy index by number of technocrats, engineers and people's potential to accept related technocrats, engineers and people s potential to accept related innovation. (4)Institution: Creation and existence of efficient market systems for energy and technology. Decentralized governance and privatization gy gy g p of related organization, international and domestic funding system, carbon-emission tax, emissions trading, etc. (5)Social capital on reliability, custom, and norm: Social environmental efficiency of individual level community level and commercial efficiency of individual level, community level and commercial markets. Energy efficient lifestyle and low material type lifestyle.

Development, maintenance and application of multi-layered modeling system (1) ( ) C (1) Climate change+ long-term optimized capital investment model, AIM/Impact policy, now in operational stage, world-wide and ranging from 2000 to 2300. world wide and ranging from 2000 to 2300. (2) The world energy, economy, and GHG emission model. Multi-regional, multi-sectional CGE model, world-wide and ranging from 2000 to 2300. By the end of 2008, becomes operational. Using for IPCC 5AR. Enhancement of a biomass production module, a land Enhancement of a biomass production module, a land use module, and an energy resource modules, etc. (3) AIM/enduse[global], world-wide and ranging from 2000 to 2050. To the operation stage within this year. Econometrics modules for energy-service, bottom-up engineering type modules for regional GHG emissions. engineering type modules for regional GHG emissions.

AIM/Impact[Policy] - Global and Long-term climate-economic-energy integrated model multi-regions (< 10), year 2000 to year 2200 - Dynamic global model consisted with; D Dynamic economic CGE module maximizing social utility i i CGE d l i i i i l ili + Simplified climate module (global surface energy balance model) + Carbon cycle module with feedback mechanism + Simplified chemical reaction module Si lifi d h i l ti d l + Climate impact module - Gases : CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, BC, SO 2 , and F gases Gases : CO CH N O BC SO and F gases - Now refining: 1)to multi-regional, 2) inclusion of g g climate feedback mechanism, 3) systematic and organized methodology of impact assessment.

Including climate feedbacks Calibration 3 ：ＣＯ Calibration 3 ：ＣＯ ２ C4MIP (Friedlingstein et C4MIP (Friedlingstein et concentration Productivity and heterogeneous al.,2997), Plattner et al.(2007), al.,2007), Plattner et al.(2007), respiration: Calibration １： Vegetation Carbon Cycle model WG1-7(2007) WG1-7(2007) HRBM/CTBM/FBM/4box carbon absorption biosphere (Meyer et al. 1999) Atmospheric carbon balance model(M1.1 ) Vegetation Vegetation FB Vegetation carbon model(M1.2) Calibration1 absorption Historical emissions coefficient GHG Oceanic carbon model(M1 3) Oceanic carbon model(M1.3) NO2,CO,NMVOC SO2, Halocarbon Oceanic Ocean FB HILDA (Joos et al., 1996) Calibration2 absorption coefficient Calibration 2 ： Oceanic carbon absorption Chemistry model （ non ‐ CO2,M2.1) Calibration 4 ： Atmospheric non ‐ CO ２ p Joos et al (2001) Joos et al. (2001), ２ concentration Eickhout et al.(2004) Chemistry model Decay Historical Atmospheric （ TOZ,OH)(M2.2) Calibration 3,4 concentration coefficients concentration H2O H 4 concentration → S Radiative forcing in year 2000 （ IPCC WG1) Calibration 5 ： Radiative GHG concentration Forcing ‐ RF model(M3.1) Calibration 5 Joos et al . (2001), Eickhout et al .(2004) CH ＳＯ ２ emission → DSU,ISU 、 Emissions of RF related CFC and HC emission → ＳＯＺ Historical radiative chemicals ‐ RF model CO emission → OC,BC ＡＦ Radiative Forcing forcing （ DSU,ISU,OC,BCS, coefficient VOL, SOL, LAN OZ,SH2O)(M3.2) GHG: greenhouse gases GHG: greenhouse gases DSU: direct effect of tropospheric sulfates ISU: indirect effect of tropospheric sulfates VOL: volcanic stratospheric aerosols SOL: solar irradiance BCA: black carbon Global temperature Climate TOZ: tropospheric ozone Historical global Global model Calibration 6 SOZ: stratospheric ozone temperature temperature sensitivity （ IRF/UPDM)(M4) change IRF: impulse response function UPDM: upwell-diffusion model U up e d us o ode Calibration ６： Global Calibration ６： Global AF coefficient: Aerosol forcing coefficient temperature change FB:feedback LAN: landuse

Effects of 50% GHG emission reduction in year 2050 on long term temperature change long-term temperature change 4.0 BaU (Case 1） l re-industria Climate sensitivity: 4.5℃ (Case 5） 3.0 ease from pr 50％ reduction （Case 2) ％ （ ) 50％ reduction at 2050, and continue 2.0 a （℃） reduction thereafter (Case 3) Climate sensitivity 2℃ （Case 4) y （ ) rature incre er 1.0 Temperature Case change (1) Case 1 BaU, climate sensitivity 3℃ 5.7 Case 2 50% reduction of 1990 emission after 2 8 2.8 Temper year 2050, climate sensitivity 3℃ Case 3 Continuation of case 2's emission 0.0 reduction speed till year 2100, keep 25% 2.0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 of year 1990 emission after then Case 4 Same as case 2 except climate 1.9 sensitivity is 2℃ Year Year C Case 5 5 S Same as case 2 except climate 2 t li t 4.2 sensitivity is 4.5℃ （１） Temperature increase in year 2200 above pre-industrial period （２） Using same socio-economic assumptions as SRES B2. Compliance with Kyoto target in year 2010 is assumed, and reduction will start after year 2010 start after year 2010. Controlled gases are those denoted in Controlled gases are those denoted in Kyoto Protocol.