th AIM International Workshop The 11 th AIM International Workshop The 11 19- -21 February 2006 21 February 2006 19 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Future Direction of Future Direction of AIM AIM Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies 1
Assessment of Climate Policies toward Low Carbon Society ← Probabilistic climate projection → o i r a n e c s c i Climate & m o n Monitoring Sub-theme 1 o Impact ← Inventory data c e o Visions for Low Carbon Society Visions for Low Carbon Society i c Modeling o Long-term socio-economic scenarios Low carbon society in long-term context S ← Sink, biomass ← climate change impacts Global satellite data → Model support for quantification resources k r o w e m a r Medium-long term target F l International framework a n o Analysis of climate policies i t a n r e t n I International Framework Sub-theme 2 Sub-theme 3 Model Development International Framework Model Development on Climate Change Policy Assessment Policy Assessment Quantification of the effects of international frameworks 2
Sub- -theme 1: Visions for Low Carbon theme 1: Visions for Low Carbon Sub Society Society Goal: Development of scenarios for Goal: Development of scenarios for Low Carbon Society through Low Carbon Society through sustainable development sustainable development 3
Sub-theme 1 Visions for Low Carbon Society - Japanese scenarios towards low carbon society Projection with consistency based on several dynamics such as macro-economic balance, industrial structure, household, consumption, lifestyle, transport demand, physical stock and Infra-structure - Low carbon society in Asia regions Scenarios of China, India, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Viet Num, etc. - Global stabilization Scenarios for low carbon society in world region. 4
Scenario Development Processes Scenario, Transition Model Snap shot model Storyline Household production/Lifestyle model Cost Archive data set of Energy Balance, Environmental Burden, and (identify effects of consumer behavior Archive data set of Technology development and diffusion Population dynamic model (cohort model including birth/death, inter-regional/national migration) expert judgment) Technology development schedule for energy use, production, and consumption (R&D plan, considering change of age/type of productivity change, IS balance and calculation of BAU scenario) Macro-economic model (econometric model for parameter estimate of supply-side potential residential/nonresidential housing, construction and retirement of energy supply facilities) Infrastructure/building dynamic model (econometric/engineering bottom-up approach for Socio-economic scenario, Intervention scenario household/ environment-oriented preferences on energy service demand, transportation trip demand by Archive data set of Socio-economic change econometric methods and estimate impacts of intervention scenarios) Passenger/Freight Transportation demand model (parameter estimate of trip generation, modal share using statistics on person trip, traffic flow, freight flow and others. Service Trajectory demand estimation assuming technology and behavior change) Energy supply and demand balance model (adjusting seasonal/daily energy balance of electricity, heat, and hydrogen supply and demand considering infrastructure development) Energy technology bottom-up model (technology selection of energy supply, conversion, consumption using econometric/engineering/management methods) General equilibrium model (investigate feasibility, economic impacts considering general equilibrium of approx. 40 services including energy at service and labor market with support of other models) 5
Back-cast ing f rom f ut ure t arget world by t he macro- economy and indust ry st ruct ure dynamics model Technology development , Ref erence socio-economic change Forecasting proj ect ed by hist orically f uture calibrat ed mult i-sect or world economet ric model Mit igat ion Required intervention Technology development Required Environment al pressure Policy intervention and I nvestment Service demand Calculat ion of required change int ervent ion policy and Long-term target year by changing social behavior, lif est yles int ervent ion by dynamic and inst it ut ions opt imizat ion mult i-sect or Back-casting model year(2025) year(2015) Normative AI M result Release of Checking Checking target world 2020 2050 2000 6
Why we need scenarios? Main elements to decide development path and GHG emissions in Japan Important elements to design Other important elements to decide low carbon society (LCS) development path and GHG emissions International International Economic growth Burden sharing for Japan and others International international cooperation (BRICs and others) cooperation division of labor International trade Innovative mechanism technologies Technology RD&D National strategy Competition or Immigration slow life /migration Energy supply Industrial structure system Domestic Innovation on Industrial structure Transportation ICT Financial market system low birthrate Centralization Urban ICT and longevity /decentralization system Consumption Big government Urban living Taxation preferences /small government /rural living Investigate the direction of Decide possible combination Given condition for LCS studies LCS development
Application to India Technologies in Scenarios: Short- -term term Technologies in Scenarios: Short Road infrastructures, Energy markets Conventional Technology Paths Gasoline hybrid vehicle, Bio-ethanol Ultra-critical boilers, IGCC Building insulations, Appliance standards 3200 3200 IA2 Nuclear Fission, Information highways Frozen Technology IB2 Fuel cell vehicle: H2 from natural gas Million Ton of CO 2 Emissions IA1 IA1T 2400 2400 Energy efficiency, Environment markets IB1 Bikeway, Advanced car sharing system 1600 1600 Renewable energy technologies Waste recycling and reuse 800 800 Virtual communication system 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 8 Urban planning, Public transport
G l o b a l C h a l l e n g e s T o w a r d G l o b a l C h a l l e n g e s T o w a r d L o w - C a r b o n E c o n o m y ( L C E ) L o w - C a r b o n E c o n o m y ( L C E ) - F o c u s o n C o u n t r y - S p e c i f i c S c e n a r i o A n a l y s i s - - F o c u s o n C o u n t r y - S p e c i f i c S c e n a r i o A n a l y s i s - 7 Current per capita 6 CO 2 emissions CO 2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap) U S and Target 5 C a n a d a 4 U K G e rm a n y 3 M E T I, Ja p a n Japan 2050 2 0 3 0 sc e n a rio 2 scenario F ra n c e W o rld Target for 1 IA2 C h in a Low Carbon Economy IB1 In d ia 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 9
Sub- -theme 2: Analysis on International Negotiation Process and Inter theme 2: Analysis on International Negotiation Process and International Framework national Framework Sub on Climate Change Goal: To make a proposal on a process to achieve an internationa on Climate Change Goal: To make a proposal on a process to achieve an international l agreement on climate change mitigation for years beyond 2012 agreement on climate change mitigation for years beyond 2012 International Politics Kyoto Protocol’s First Commitment Period Improvement of Kyoto Protocol A Framework Negotiation and dialogue for beyond 2012 beyond 2012 Informal dialogue on beyond 2012 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 A interim ・ ・ summary: a Analysis on current Assessment Research Agenda Final Kyoto Framework of the existing proposal for ・ Assessments on goal: a and mechanisms mechanisms, beyond 2012 proposal international under Kyoto, such as and proposals process to start a for international for any new negotiation on a beyond emissions trading mechanisms if ・ framework on 2012 Comments from and CDM necessary beyond 2012 key countries, ・ Domestic climate especially those policy of key in the Asia- countries Pacific region 10
Sub- -theme 3: Cost theme 3: Cost- -effect analysis of climate change effect analysis of climate change Sub policies policies Goal: Model development and application to assess Goal: Model development and application to assess climate change policies climate change policies 11
Sub-theme 3 Cost-effect analysis of climate change policies 1) Model development to support Japanese climate policies toward 2013 and beyond 2) Model development in Asia countries and application through sustainable development analysis of Millennium Development Goals and portfolio of adaptation and mitigation policies 3) Global model development to support international climate policies including emissions trading 4) Capacity building and model dissemination 12
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