th AIM International Workshop 1 th The 11 AIM International Workshop The 1 19- -21 February 2006 21 February 2006 19 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Recent Development of Recent Development of AIM Models and Activities AIM Models and Activities Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies
AIM/TOPD AI M/TOPDOW OWN AIM/CGE AIM CGE/GLOBAL /GLOBAL AIM AIM/IMPA /IMPACT CT AIM AIM/CGE CGE/ASIA ASIA Global ve Gl version AIM-COUNTRY AIM-CO TRY models mode ls Country Country version version AIM AIM/TREND TREND AIM/Inventory AIM/LOCAL AIM /LOCAL AIM AIM/Database AIM AIM/Dat atabase base base Activity ALICE ALICE AIM AIM/CGE/ CGE/ AIM-CMB AIM-CMB AIM/ENDUSE AIM /ENDUSE ECOSYSTEM ECOSY STEM AIM/ECOSYSTEM AIM /ECOSYSTEM AIM-SUBsidy AIM-SUBsidy AI AIM n next AIM/LAND AIM/LAND genera rati tion m model del Househol House old d AIM/WA AIM/WATER TER pr prod oduct uctio AIM/AGRI AIM/AGRI n n AIM AIM/MATERI /MATERIAL AIM/VEG AIM/VEG ap approach oach AIM/HEALTH AIM/HEALTH AIM/CLIMATE AIM /CLIMATE Etc. Etc. Bottom-up app Bottom- p approa oach ch of Atmos At mospher heric mod c model UD Ocea UD Ocean n model model disaggregated environme disagg regated environmental tal Radiativ Radiative forcing forcing mod model AIM AIM/Im Impact pact technolo tech nologies gies GCM GCM,RegCM RegCM interface nterface AIM/Emission AIM Emission Roadmap of the AIM family
New model members AIM model family for scenario analysis Enduse/SDB type modules Macro-economic balance Energy end-use and Industrial structure Renewable energy Waste treatment/disposal dynamics Resource recycling Demography and AIM/enduse models AIM/Topdown AIM/Material (Energy, Materials) Household dynamics Bottomup, Global National enduse, SDB CGE approach Consumption and approach Lifestyle dynamics Bottomup/accounting AIM/Ecosystem AIM/Ecosystem models [global] [country] Transport demand Process/SDB type modules dynamics Land-use, Population-urbanization Forestry, Agriculture Water Resource and Infrastructures Air Load/emission Physical stock and Infra- structure dynamics AIM/Policy… Simplified model for Long- term assessment of climate change AIM: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model
Outline of AIM model presentation at the workshop - Impact modeling [Session II & III] - Emission inventory and modeling [Session IV, V & VII] - AIM/Enduse[Global] [Session VI] - APEIS project [Session VIII & IX] - Low carbon society project [Session X & XI] - Future direction [Session XII & XIII]
Development of AIM Model Development of AIM Model Model development Model development – Country models & global model – Climate policy & other environmental policies Model applications Model applications – EMF: BC, land use, ... – IPCC: database, new scenario ➜ Morita memorial – IMCP: technology – UNEP/GEO4: sustainable development – Others: GHG stabilization and burden sharing, marginal abatement cost, carbon tax in Japan, ...
（１） Comprehensive assessment of （２） Impact assessment climate change impact for discussing considering effects of long-term stabilization target extreme climate events CO2 排出経路 気温変化 大気中 CO2 濃度 4.0 25 1050 Temperature increase (1990=0) CO 2 eq concentration (ppmv) 20 CO2eq emission (Gt-C) 3.0 850 15 2.0 650 10 1.0 450 5 0.0 250 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Year Year 海面上昇 コムギ生産性変化 イネ生産性変化 0.3 0 0 Change of wheat productivity(%) Change of wheat productivity(%) -5 -5 Sea Level Rise (m) 0.2 -10 -10 -15 -15 0.1 -20 -20 -25 -25 インド インド 0.0 -30 -30 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Year Year � SRES � SRES- -B2: Business as usual B2: Business as usual ▲ GHG ▲ GHG- -500ppmv: 500ppmv cap on total GHG concentrations 500ppmv: 500ppmv cap on total GHG concentrations ▲ GHG ▲ GHG- -600ppmv: 600ppmv cap on total GHG concentrations 600ppmv: 600ppmv cap on total GHG concentrations � To achieve around 2 ℃ temperature increase in 2100, 550ppmv cap on total GHG constraint is needed Climate change impact on crop productivity Optimal emission path for achieving 2 degC using daily climate scenario with high target and consequent temperature change, spatial resolution. SLR and crop impacts. Application to the Improvement of discussion of post-2012 impact model framework (Project B-12) Development of (Project S-3-2 and S-4) AIM/Ecosystem (Project B-52) （３） Impact assessment considering interaction between climate change, other environmental problems, and development target. Three main research activities of AIM impact study
Global Enduse & Inventory Development of Global Enduse Enduse model model Development of Global Regional scale: 21 Global regions 21 Global regions (however, improve data as detail as possible in a national level) al level) (however, improve data as detail as possible in a nation Temporal scale: 2000 2000 – – 2020 2020 ( plan to extend ( plan to extend upto upto 2050 ) 2050 ) Gas classifications: CO CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, CFC, HCFC, HFC, PFC, SF 6 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, CFC, HCFC, HFC, PFC, SF 6 (plan to include SO (plan to include SO 2 2 , , NOx NOx, PM, BC/OC) , PM, BC/OC) Sector classifications: Energy industry, Industry, Transport, Energy industry, Industry, Transport, Residential, Commercial, Agriculture, F- -gas emission gas emission Residential, Commercial, Agriculture, F Development of Emission Inventory Development of Emission Inventory 1) Development of emission factor data of Black Carbon emission factor data of Black Carbon and and 1) Development of its emission inventory in 2000 in Asia regions its emission inventory in 2000 in Asia regions 2) Development of emission inventory in 2000 in China, India, emission inventory in 2000 in China, India, 2) Development of Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia 3) Development of emission inventory in 2000 in Asia regions emission inventory in 2000 in Asia regions and and 3) Development of geographical informatization informatization geographical
SDB (Strategic DataBase) Activities in APEIS Collect & process Activities in APEIS Design environmental data of innovation strategies environmental (Session VIII & IX) (Session VIII & IX) options Develop quantitative Data collection scenario of future CGE model application drivers and countermeasure Structure Design Combine data cards Assess Quantitative Analysis Simulate effect of environmental environmental innovation innovation strategies strategies 200 Relative risk of diarrhea mortality 35 1.0 Management options household connection can reduce leakage Manage- Water supply by Annual cost (Bil.$/year) 30 (million m3/yr) 150 of water supply, ment 0.8 25 options 100 0.6 20 50 15 0.4 10 0 0.2 5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year 0 0.0 Annual cost for HC 20 Manage- 2000 2015 2025 2000 2015 2025 and reduce the cost. ment (billion$/yr) 15 options Conventional Advanced 10 Technologies Technologies 5 35 1.0 Household connection Public standpoint 30 Relative risk of diarrhea mortality 0.8 25 0 0.6 20 Well/Pond/Borehole Rainwater 15 0.4 10 0.2 2000 2015 2025 Sewer connection Septic tank 5 0 0.0 2000 2015 2025 2000 2015 2025 VIP/Simple pit latrine Diarreha Assessment of Safe Water/Sanitation Technologies and Management Options AIM/APEIS Training Workshop - India’s case using SDB - (November, 2005)
Research project on Japan Low-carbon society scenario Back-casting from future target world by the macro- economy and industry structure dynamics model Technology development, Reference Forecasting socio-economic change future projected by historically calibrated multi-sector world econometric model Mitigation Technology Required intervention Required development Environmental pressure Policy intervention and Investment Service demand Calculation of required change intervention policy and by changing social Long-term target year intervention by dynamic behavior, lifestyles and institutions optimization multi-sector model Back-casting Normative year(2025) year(2015) AIM result Release of Checking Checking target world 2020 2050 2000
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event, Montreal, Dec.3, 2005 Global Challenges Toward Global Challenges Toward Low- -Carbon Economy (LCE) Carbon Economy (LCE) Low -Focus on Country Focus on Country- -Specific Scenario Analysis Specific Scenario Analysis- - - 7 Current per capita 6 CO 2 emissions CO 2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap) U S and Target 5 C a n a d a 4 U K G e rm a n y 3 M E T I, Ja p a n Japan 2050 2 0 3 0 sc e n a rio 2 scenario F ra n c e W o rld Target for 1 IA2 C h in a Low Carbon Economy IB1 In d ia 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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