Local Air Quality Modeling, AIM/Air th AIM International Workshop - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Local Air Quality Modeling, AIM/Air th AIM International Workshop The 9 th AIM International Workshop The 9 12- -14, March 2004, at NIES 14, March 2004, at NIES 12 Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies Kyoto University Kyoto University Takeshi Fujiwara Takeshi Fujiwara

Outline of AIM/Air + AIM/Air is a program package to calculate the pollutant concentration based on plume and puff diffusion models. + Area source (AS) and Large Point Source ( LPS) can be dealt with. The emission data from “AIM/Local” are directly available by using converter “A-GIS”. + Target size is from city to country. + AIM/Air has friendly user interface and runs on both PC’s Windows and Linux.

Characteristics of AIM/Air + Properties of emission, such as amount per year, gas temperature, and gas flow, are definable by each LPS or cell of AS. + Emission profile is definable. Not only change of emission in a day, in a week and in year but also special terms (such as holiday and off-time in equipment maintenance) are considered. + Standard meteorological data (ECMWF ） is available. Use of the meteorological data locally measured is effective to increase accuracy of diffusion analysis. + An effective algorithm to reduce computational time is adopted.

Model Equations Plume model (Wind velocity >= 1 m/s)         − + Q 2 2 2 y ( z He ) ( z He )   ・ = ⋅ − − + − p       C ( x , y , z ) exp exp exp   πσ σ σ σ σ 2  2 2      2 u 2 2 2     y z y z z Puff model (Wind velocity < 1 m/s)       π −    2 2 2 Q 1 2 ux u x ux     u   + ⋅ ⋅ − = p ⋅ ⋅   [ 1 exp erfc C ( x , y , z ) exp       αη η α η α 2 2 2 αη π γ   3 2     2  2  2   ( 2 ) − − − −       π  2 2  1 2 ux u x ux     + + ⋅ ⋅ −   1 exp erfc ]     αη η α η αη 2  2 2    2   2   + + + + α α 2 2 ∞ 2 ( ) ( ) ∫ η = + − η = + + = − 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 R z He R z He erfc ( W ) exp( t ) dt − + γ γ 2 2 π W

AIM/Air General Data Flow Diagram Emission AIM/Local projection Change in A day, 1 . 2 A-GIS A week, 1 A year, Emission 0 . 8 And Grid data Target area patterns 0 . 6 Special term by raster 0 . 4 AGIS.rst format 0 . 2 editEpat editGmap 0 M o n T u e W e d T h u F r i S a t S u n convAGIS Meteorological data epat.air gmap.air agis.air ECMWF Local measurement LPS LPS AS AS local.air readGRBX Integration editLPS editAS Integration u.air u.air u.air of LPS of AS emission data emission data emitLPS.air emitAS.air stabLPS stabAS Stability Stability calculation calculation for LPS for AS stabLPS.air stabAS.air Diffusion calculation diffB Viewer diff.air viewCont Concentration (Connect to health impact assessment module)

Emission Pattern Editor Change in a year Change in Change in a week Change in a day by month Special terms by what day by hour 1 . 2 1 0 . 8 0 . 6 0 . 4 0 . 2 0 M o n T u e W e d T h u F r i S a t S u n

AS Emission Editor 3) Set Target Area 2)Load Emission pattern Database 4) (click) Select A Emission Pattern ….. 5) (and click) Assign 1) Load Map Data the Emission Pattern To This Cell.

LPS Emission Editor 4) (and click) Assign the Emission Pattern To This Cell. 3) (click) Select A Emission Pattern ….. 2) Load LPS data 1) Load Emission pattern database

Application � AIM/Air was applied to assess health AIM/Air was applied to assess health � impact of SO 2 in Beijing. impact of SO 2 in Beijing.

Air Quality Level in China The 1 st level: Nature protection zone, scenic zone. Day-averaged SO 2 concentration: 50 μ g/m 3 The 2 nd level ： Residential area, the area mixed with commercial, transportation and residential area, cultural area , usual industrial area, and agricultural area Day-averaged SO 2 concentration ： 150 μ g/m 3 The 3 rd level ： Specified industrial area. Day- averaged SO 2 concentration ： 250 μ g/m 3

Pollution Level of cities in China Because of drastic development of economics in China to identify the health impact caused by SO 2 is significantly important. In 343 cities researched in China, In 343 cities researched in China, The number of cities where SO 2 concentration is above the standard value of the 3 rd level air quality ： 107 cities(31.2%) Above the 2 nd level and below the 3 rd level ： 120cities(35.0%) If the 2 nd air quality level is achieved 178,000 of death will be avoided (World Bank)

E M I S S I O N P R O J E C T I O N ( A I M / L o c a l ) Procedure A S L P S T A R G E T P O L L U T A N T Commerce Cement Non-Ferrous Metal Transportation Pollutant SO 2 Iron & Steel Public Power Generation Others A-GIS ( A I M / A i r ) Emission patterns M E T E O R O L O G Y D A T A Interpolation of Wind velocity meteorology data D I F F U S I O N C A L C U L A T I O N (1km mesh,1hrs interval) Temperature Solar radiation Diffusion model for AS Calculation of Cloud cover Diffusion model for LPS atmospheric stability Geo potential Calculation of Surface Geo potential effective stack height (0.5 ° mesh, 6hrs interval) H E A L T H R I S K A S S E S S M E N T Population map Concentration-Response Function

Target Area Beijing(China) 1,600km 2 5 Target time extent ： 1 6 3 Jan 1, ～ Dec. 31, 2000 2 Target pollutant ： 4 SO 2 Measurement points 観測点 1 C h e G o n g Z h u a n g 2 Q i a n M e n 3 D o n g S i 4 T h e T e m p l e o f H e a 5 O l y m p i c C e n t e r 6 A g r i c u l t u r a l M u s e u m

Emission Source (AIM/Local) A S ( A r e a S o u r c e ) L P S ( L a r g e P o i n t S o u r c e ) C e m e n t s e c t o r GDP by secondary industry section S t e e l a n d i r o n s e c t o r in each district Population density in each 30 N o n - f e r r o u s m e t a l s e c t o r seconds mesh P o w e r g e n e r a t i o n s e c t o r C o m m e r c e s e c t o r GDP by third industry section in each district T r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r Population density in each 30 seconds mesh. P u b l i c s e c t o r Population density O t h e r s e c t o r

Emission pattern (1) C h a n g e i n d a y Power generation and public sectors Industry and commerce sectors 0 . 0 6 Constant during 0 . 0 4 9:00 ～ 19:00 Weight 加重 0 . 0 2 Zero during 19:00 ～ 8:00 0 . 0 0 0 6 1 2 1 8 2 4 時刻 Time Industry sector ： C h a n g e i n w e e k constant during Mon. to Fri. and zero on Sat. and Sun.

Emission Pattern (2) Commerce and public sectors C h a n g e i n y e a r (frequent use of heater) E m i s s i o n r a t e b y s e c t o r M o n t h Emission from heater C o m m e r c e P u b l i c J a n . 0 . 4 4 7 0 . 2 4 3 Emission from every equipment F e b . 0 . 1 6 9 0 . 1 2 1 M a r . 0 . 0 6 6 0 . 0 7 6 =39%(public sector) A p r . 0 . 0 1 1 0 . 0 5 2 M a y 0 . 0 0 9 0 . 0 5 1 =89%(commercial sector) J u n . 0 . 0 0 9 0 . 0 5 1 J u l . 0 . 0 0 9 0 . 0 5 1 A u g . 0 . 0 0 9 0 . 0 5 1 S e p . 0 . 0 0 9 0 . 0 5 1 O c t . 0 . 0 1 3 0 . 0 5 2 S p e c i a l t e r m s N o v . 0 . 0 7 1 0 . 0 7 8 D e c . 0 . 1 7 8 0 . 1 2 5 新年 ： J a n . 1 春節 ： F e b . 5 ～7 労働祭： A p r . 2 9 ～M a y 5 国慶祭： S e p . 2 9 ～O c t . 3 .

Health Impact Assessment The relationship between SO 2 concentration averaged in 48 hrs and daily mortality [ ] pop ( ( ) ) = − ⊿ ⋅ − β ⋅ ⋅ Daily Mortality SO 1 y exp 2 0 y 0 : rate of death caused by any events except accident β ： SO 2 coefficient ⊿ SO 2 ： The difference between projected SO 2 concentration which is averaged in 48 hrs and the regulation value of the 2nd grade standard. Using the daily mortality how many death can be avoided if the concentration is regulated under the standard value of the 2 nd level air quality is calculated.