AIR QUALITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE M. Schaap, C. Hendriks, A. Manders, A. Mues
WHY STUDY AIR QUALITY? Adapted from EEA reporting,
AIR QUALITY PATHWAYS 3 | Air quality in a changing climate
AIR QUALITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Δ Δ Δ Emissions Climate Meteorology Δ Atmospheric chemistry Δ Air Quality at the surface (after: Jacob and Winner, 2009)
AIR QUALITY Emissions (natural + anthropogenic) Air Quality Pollutant concentrations • Temperature, e.g. biogenic volatile organic compounds ( 10% per ° C) • Wind, e.g. Dust suspension, Sea salt • Soil moisture (natural Emissions) • Anthropogenic activities e.g. Heat/cool, renewable/fossil energy
AIR QUALITY Dynamics Emissions (horizontal + vertical Transport) (natural + anthropogenic) Air Quality Pollutant concentrations • Wind (speed, direction), e.g. Advection • Boundary layer parameter (PBL, Stability), e.g. vertical Transport, Deposition
AIR QUALITY Dynamics Emissions (horizontal + vertical Transport) (natural + anthropogenic) Air Quality Pollutant concentrations Chemical Reactions • Temperature, e.g. reaction rates, equilibrium semi-volatiles • Radiation, e.g. photochemistry (Ozone) • Clouds, e.g. Production of sulfate in cloud water
AIR QUALITY Dynamics Emissions (horizontal + vertical Transport) (natural + anthropogenic) Air Quality Pollutant concentrations Deposition Chemical (wet + dry) Reaktions • Dry Deposition: Boundary layer parameter (Turbulence, atmospheric stability), soil moisture for stomatal conductance • Wet Deposition: Precipitation (Intensity, Variability), Cloud parameter (CLWC, Coverage)
LOTOS-EUROS – CHEMISTRY TRANSPORT MODEL OF INTERMEDIATE COMPLEXITY Numerical formulation Input data Explicit CTM Emissions Regional / Local Transport Gidded Preprocessing Advection hourly simulated Turbulence concentrations: Land use Chemistry Gases O 3 , NO 2 , SO 2 … Gas phase Aerosol Meteorological forecast Aerosols Sulfate, Nitrate, sec. organic, primary… ECMWF Deposition Wet, dry Global chemical forcing Wet and Dry deposition fluxes climatology / explicit model M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot
MOVIE OF MODELLED PARTICULATE MATTER Application of the new UBA-Griddingtool emissions for ammonia
COMPARISON TO LONG TERM OBSERVATION DATA, E.G DENMARK SO4 TNO3 12 | Air quality in a changing climate
CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR OZONE AND PM10 FOR 2050 • „ Downscaling “ of climate change scenarios of GCMs using the CTM LOTOS-EUROS and RCM RACMO • Comparison of 20 year periods for 1989–2009 and 2041–2060 • Focus: Ozone und PM10 • Anthropogenic emissions taken constant for 2005 (MACC 2005) Zeitraum Randbedingungen Name (RACMO) 1989-2009 ERA-interim RACMO_ERA 1970-2060 ECHAM5 A1B RACMO_ECHAM 1970-2060 MIROC A1B RACMO_MIROC Horizontal resolution 0.5°x0.25° Manders et al., 2012 (Atmos. Chem. Phys.)
CHANGE IN AVERAGE DAILY MAXIMUM OZONE IN SUMMER AT CONSTANT EMISSIONS “ECHAM” Boundary conditions “MIROC” Boundary conditions ΔO 3 ( μg /m 3 ) • Increase of the average daily maximum ozone (Sommer) of 5–10 μg /m 3 in parts of central and southern Europe • Low increase in northern and eastern Europe • The differences indicate high uncertainties between models but the direction is consistent
Bias between ERA-interim and ECHAM current climate PM IS A CHALLENGE Summer 2003 PM10 concentration change (µg/m 3 ) Climate change induced difference using ECHAM boundary conditions Mues et al., 2012 (Atmos. Environ.) 16 | Air quality in a changing climate
BUT EMISSIONS WILL NOT BE CONSTANT… What will be the combined impact of: An increase of bioenergy plantations EU’s air quality policy Climate change on health damage from ground based ozone? 17 | Air quality in a changing climate
SCENARIO STUDY APPROACH PRIMES energy scenarios for Europe - Current legislation (CLE) - Decarbonization scenario + efficiency measures GAINS GLOBIOM Anthropogenic emissions Land use change LOTOS-EUROS Ground level ozone
ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSION CHANGE Anthropogenic emissions EU 28 1,00 2010 0,80 2030 CLE 2030 Decarbonisation relative to 2010 2050 CLE 0,60 2050 Decarbonisation 0,40 0,20 In cooperation 0,00 with IIASA Methane Non-methane VOC Nitrogen Oxides
LAND USE AND ISOPRENE EMISSION CHANGE Land use change from 2010 Isoprene emissions Apr-Sept EU28 EU28 3,5 180 future climate CLE Decarb 160 3 current climate 140 plantation forest 2,5 120 1000 km 2 1000 kton 2 100 80 1,5 60 1 40 0,5 20 0 0 2030 2050 2030 2050 2010 CLE 2030 decarb CLE 2050 decarb 2030 2050 In cooperation with IIASA
2010 GROUND LEVEL OZONE CONCENTRATION 2050 2050 decarbonisation decarbonisation current climate future climate [µg/m 3 ]
2010 RELATIVE RISK, ALL CAUSE MORTALITY [%] 2050 2050 decarbonisation decarbonisation current climate future climate
DECOMPOSITION: WHAT DETERMINES EFFECT? Relative risk ozone pollution 1,2 Impact land use 2010 change Relative risk [% extra mortality] only land use change 1 Impact only anthropogenic emission Total 0,8 change 2050 decarbonization change 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 NLD SWE POL ITA
CONCLUSIONS Damage to health from ozone pollution is likely to decrease in 2030 / 2050 if climate remains as today The difference between the energy pathways is small Impact of anthropogenic emission change far outweighs impact of land use change Climate change may be a more important driver of ozone concentrations than the change in anthropogenic emissions and land use change unless very strong emission reductions are achieved
DO CURRENT SOURCE RECEPTOR MATRICES HOLD FOR LARGE SCALE IMPLEMENTATION OF RENEWABLES? 26 | Air quality in a changing climate
SCENARIOS Define scenarios with different contribution of solar (PV) and wind 4000000 Major assumptions: 3500000 1. No exchange between 3000000 countries Electricity used (GWh) 2500000 2. No storage of electricity Fossil 2000000 Renewables Others Under these assumptions, 1500000 solar (PV) capacity is not 1000000 sufficient to supply the necessary electricity at the 500000 requested time 0 Current situation Renewable (50-50) Renewable (high Renewable (high solar) wind) Scenario 4% 25% 18% 25% 27 | Air quality in a changing climate M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot
Assessment of technology impact in energy supply systems Renewable DC - Transmission AC - Transmission Power demand power Overhead lines or Simplified representation of generation earth cables the current high voltage grid potentials Optimisation module REMix Least-cost power supply, spatially and temporally explicit Heat demand Flex. CHP-operation: - heat storage Model - Peak load boilers Electric vehicles BEV/EREV: different charging strategies, Results: Strategies for V2G. power generation & storage Battery capacity of the Di. 31.10 Mi. 1.11 Sa. 4.11 Mo. 30.10 Do. 2.11 Fr. 3.11 So. 5.11 vehicle fleet in temporal resolution. Conventional Storage Demand Side x power plants Pumped hydro Management Nuclear, coal Industry & Compressed Air Energy FCEV: flexible on-site Storage CCGT, gas households H 2 -generation Hydrogen (ongoing research) DLR
ELECTRICITY DEMAND TURKEY – JANUARY - CURRENT Electricity distribution; month 1; country tur; scenario: Current situation 40 35 30 Electricity generated (GWh) 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375 397 419 441 463 485 507 529 551 573 595 617 639 661 683 705 727 Hour number (1-744) Others Renewables Fossil M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot
ELECTRICITY DEMAND TURKEY – JANUARY – HIGH WIND Electricity distribution; month 1; country tur; scenario: 30% renewables, high wind 40 35 30 Electricity generated (GWh) 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 23 45 67 89 111 133 155 177 199 221 243 265 287 309 331 353 375 397 419 441 463 485 507 529 551 573 595 617 639 661 683 705 727 Hour number (1-744) Others Renewables Fossil M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot
Impact on sulphate concentrations – CZE and DEU Base same timing Concentration per unit emission 50-50 High wind
WE SEE THE SAME FOR OTHER POLLUTANTS, E.G. NO2, PM10 M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot
CONCLUSIONS The impact of changing emission variability for renewable energies may be significant during the transition phase to a society based on renewable energy resources. In general, the meteorological and climate impact on anthropogenic emissions is largely neglected in current modelling approaches and needs to be accounted for, 34 | Air quality in a changing climate
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Take a look: TIME.TNO.NL
RUßQUELLEN IN DEUTSCHLAND IIASA Prognose für die europäische Kommission (TSAP) 45 offene Verbrennung Offene Verbrennung von Biomasse 40 Abfallwirtschaft Abfallwirtschaft 35 Maschinen Maschinen Verkehr Verkehr 30 Industrie Industrie 1000 Tonnen 25 Haushalte (Feuerungsanlagen) Haushalte - Őfen Stromerzeugung Stromerzeugung 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 (Courtesy of M. Amann)
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