BONUS BALTICAPP : Changing climate & changing society -> - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Water protection – long time horizons BONUS BALTICAPP : Changing climate & changing society -> long-run management challenges

Climate futures Socioeconomic futures Sources: O’Neill et al (2014); Meinshausen et al (2011)

Nutrients Climate RCO scobi Non-point Hydrol. Choice experiment scenarios Atm.dep Contingent behavior Socioeconomic Point-source Random utility scenarios Ecopath with modelling Fisheries ecosim Zandersen, M., Hyytiäinen, K., Meier, H.E.M, Tomczak, M.T., Bauer, B., Haapasaari, P., Olesen, J.E.O., Gustafsson, B.G., Refsgaard, J.C., Fridell, E., Pihlainen, S., Le Tissier, M.D.A., Kosenius, A.K, Van Vuuren, D.P. 2019. Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems. Regional Environmental Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0

Moderate climate change (RCP4.5) & Sustainability (SSP1 ) NITROGEN PHOSPHORUS (b) Total P, SSP1 & RCP4.5 (a) Total N, SSP1 & RCP4.5 1200 40 1000 Annual load, 1000 tons 800 30 600 20 Non-point source Non-point source 400 10 Point source 200 Point NHx NOx P-atm. 0 0 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

High end climate change (RCP8.5) & Fossil fuelled development (SSP5) NITROGEN PHOSPHORUS (h) Total P, SSP5 & RCP8.5 (g) Total N, SSP5 & RCP8.5 1200 40 1000 Annual load, 1000 tons 800 30 Non-point 600 Non-point 20 400 10 Point 200 Point NHx NOx Atm.dep. 0 0 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Current variability in annual loads End of century: Fossil fuelled development (SSP5) & High end climate change (RCP8.5) End of century: Sustainability (SSP1) & Moderate climate change (RCP4.5)

Some conclusions Focus of mitigation efforts on phosphorus ? ? Loads: Changing climate: Changing Society: Global warming: o may impair the conditions for agriculture elsewhere o may improve the competitiveness and lead to expansion of fisheries and agricultural sectors in the Baltic sea region Long-run challenge: good balance between food production and healthy aquatic environments

Contacts : o Socioeconomic scenarios: Marianne Zandersen, Aarhus University o Climate & biogeochemical modelling: Markus Meier, Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research o Fisheries: Maciej Tomczak, Stockholm University o Water recreation benefits: Mikolaj Czajkowski, University of Warsaw o Non-market valuation: Eija Pouta, LUKE Finland