Mid-latitude Cyclones and Winter Windstorms in a Changing Climate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mid-latitude Cyclones and Winter Windstorms in a Changing Climate Spring Campus Berlin 2017 Research Workshop III: “Climate Change in Cities. Mitigation, Adaptation” Dr. Jens Grieger https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/ Institute of Meteorology Freie Universität Berlin

Outline ● Mid-latitude Cyclones ● Winter Windstorms ● Changing Climate Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 2 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Mid-latitude Cyclones Extra-tropical cyclone: low pressure system Source: http://www.ecmwf.int Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 3 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Mid-latitude Cyclones Source: http://www.ecmwf.int Source: www.wetterpate.de Names of high and low pressure Systems: www.wetterpate.de Source: http://www.berliner-wetterkarte.de Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 4 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Winter wind storm ● Wind storm related to extra-tropical cyclone ● Low pressure system – Balancing air masses – Wind ● Further analysis – Identification of cyclones and wind storms Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 5 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Example: Wind Storm Daria exceedence of 98th perc. exceedence of 98th perc. exceedence of 98th perc. of ERA-INT 10m wind speed of ERA-INT 10m wind speed of ERA-INT 10m wind speed ERA-INTERIM SLP isobars Daria‘s cyclone track Daria‘s wind track 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM Source: Tim Kruschke Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 6 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Example: Daria 10m wind speed in ERA-INTERIM

Storm track density ● Wind storm tracks per winter season ● Maximum at the North Atlantic Source: Kruschke (2015) Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 27 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Impact of storms Example ensured loss [€] Kyrill: 2.8 billion Source: Munich Re Daria: 1.5 billion (1999). Taken from Renggli (2011) Source: Aon Benfield Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 28 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Loss potential ● Loss is function of – Storm severity (Leckebusch et al.; 2008) – Population density (Donat et al.; 2011) Population density Data source: CIESIN. Taken from (Donat et al. (2011) Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 29 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Climate change I Source: IPCC AR5, Fig. 9.2 Cyclones: re-distribution of energy Source: Etling (1996) Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 30 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Climate change II Temperature Cyclones Source: IPCC AR5, Fig. 12.10 Source: Zappa et al. (2013) Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 31 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Change of Strong cyclones ● Higher wind speed in Northern Europe Source: Zappa et al. (2013) Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 32 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Change of loss potential ● Loss increase ● High variability of different climate models Source: Donat et al. (2013) Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 33 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate

Summary ● „Intense winter storms constitute one of the most important natural hazards affecting Central Europe“ (Donat et al.; 2010) ● Loss is function of storm severity and population density (Donat et al.; 2011) ● Future simulations show – less cyclones (Zappa et al.; 2013) – more strong ones, higher wind speed over Europe (Zappa et al.; 2013) – higher loss potentials in European region (Donat et al.; 2013) Jens Grieger, FU Berlin 34 March 28, 2017 Storms in a changing climate