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How DGMET Dealt with Tropical Cyclone Mekunu ( 22 ̶ 27 May 2018) Directorate General of Meteorology Public Authority for Civil Aviation

Tropical cyclones Over Oman History and Statistics

Tropical cyclones Over Oman History and Statistics 2 Global distribution of the tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones Over Oman History and Statistics Storms over Arabian Sea and those affected Oman Period : 1945- 2018 50 45 - Once every 3 year a tropical cyclone 40 will affect Oman directly or 35 No of Storms indirectly. 30 - Once every 5 year a tropical cyclone 25 will make landfall over Oman 20 territory. 15 10 5 - 30 cases affected Oman since 1945 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec No. of Arabian Sea storms No. of storms affected Oman (Previous Spreedsheet)

TC Gonu Legacy “cause and effect” - Loss of lives - Economic loss

Changes at DGMET between TC Gonu and Mekunu What Are the Changes Since Gonu DGMET Development Process 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 FUTURE GONU PHET MEKUNU Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 1 Human Resources ? 124 (2007) - 231 (2017) Facilities? DGMET Systems? National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre (NEWC) Weather Radar Network 2015

Changes at DGMET Between TC Gonu and Mekunu Meteosat-8, 41.5E Meteosat-11, 0 Second Generation weather Satellite/ 1 st February 2017

Changes at DGMET between TC Gonu and Mekunu

Changes at DGMET between TC Gonu and Mekunu DGMET provides weather advisories and warnings through the National Multi- Hazard Early Warning Centre (NEWC). NEWC Mission : provide early warning information to decision makers and the public about natural events that threaten lives and properties DGMET follows an operating manual of NEWC to administrate natural hazards events including tropical cyclones.

Mekunu Timeline

Mekunu Timeline • GFS and ECMWF outlook forecasted a tropical storm will develop on 20 May and move towards Oman • Duty forecasters started to call for weather briefing 8 May • Revising NEWC unified operating manual • Checking DGMET observing and forecasting systems • Preparing the work environment for a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers... etc

Mekunu Timeline THE STORM BUILDS/Tropical Depression  DGMET/Report NO.1/ 21 May, 0900UTC  Cyclogenesis within Area A  8.0 ° N and 58.4 ° E  Wind speed of 17-27 kt

Mekunu Timeline • GFS and ECMWF forecast 11:00 UTC DGMET issued tropical storm will develop the first weather repot and move towards Oman about a tropical depression • Duty forecasters started developed in west Arabian to call for weather briefing Sea 8 21 May May • Revising NEWC unified operating manual • Checking DGMET observing and forecasting systems • Preparing the work environment for a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers

Mekunu Timeline DEEP DEPRESSION  DGMET/22 May,0600UTC  Wind speed of 27-32 kt

Mekunu Timeline • GFS and ECMWF forecast 11:00 UTC DGMET issued tropical storm will develop the first weather repot and move towards Oman about a tropical depression • Duty forecasters started developed in west Arabian to call for weather briefing Sea 22 8 May 21 May May 06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the • Revising NEWC unified operating system to deep depression manual 07:00 UTC weather briefing for NCCD • Checking DGMET observing and members forecasting systems • Preparing the work environment for a large number of people to work around the clock :meteorologist, engineers and media workers

Mekunu Timeline TROPICAL STORM  DGMET/Bulletin NO.1/22 May, 1200 UTC  Wind speed : 35- 40 kt.  9.5 ° N, 57 ° E; 900 km from Salalah  A speed of 12 km/hr RSMC named the system Mekunu at 1500UTC

Mekunu Timeline • GFS and ECMWF forecast 11:00 UTC DGMET issued tropical storm will develop the first weather repot and move towards Oman about a tropical depression • Duty forecasters started developed in west Arabian to call for weather briefing Sea 22 8 May 21 May May 06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the • Revising NEWC unified operating system to deep depression manual 07:00 UTC weather briefing for NCCD • Checking DGMET observing and members forecasting systems 12:00 UTC DGMET issues the first • Preparing the work environment for bulletin and the system is upgraded to a large number of people to work tropical storm around the clock :meteorologist, 15:00 UTC NCCD declared a state of engineers and media workers emergency

Mekunu Timeline CATEGORY-1 TROPICAL CYCLONE  DGMET/Alert NO.1/23 May,1200 UTC  10-meters wind speed 65 - 75 kt @ @ NASA 2018-05-23 0953UTC

Mekunu Timeline 11:00 UTC Civil defense start • GFS and ECMWF forecast 11:00 UTC DGMET issues evacuation of people living in tropical storm will develop the first weather report and and move towards Oman low lying areas upgrades the system to a • Duty forecasters started 12:00 UTC DGMET raises the tropical depression to call for weather briefing classification to a category-1 tropical cyclone 22 8 May 23 21 May May May 06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the • Revising NEWC unified operating system to deep depression manual 07:00 UTC weather briefing for NCCD • Checking DGMET observing and members forecasting systems 07:00 UTC NCCD declares a state of • Preparing the work environment for emergency a large number of people to work 12:00 UTC DGMET issues the first around the clock :meteorologist, bulletin and the system is upgraded to engineers and media workers tropical storm

Mekunu Timeline WEAKNING  During 24 May/night and 25 May/ early morning  A slight intrusion of dry air mass

Mekunu Timeline 11:00 UTC Civil defense start • evacuation of people living in GFS and ECMWF forecast 11:00 UTC DGMET issues Alhaliniat island tropical storm will develop the first weather report and and move towards Oman upgrades the system to a • Duty forecasters started 12:00 UTC DGMET raises the tropical depression to call for weather briefing classification to a category-1 tropical cyclone 24 22 May 8 May 23 21 May May May 06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the • Revising NEWC unified operating system to deep depression 11:00 UTC Civil defense start manual 07:00 UTC weather briefing for • evacuation of people living in Checking DGMET observing and NCCD members low lying areas forecasting systems 07:00 UTC NCCD declares a state • Preparing the work environment for 11:00 UTC TV launches 24 hour of emergency a large number of people to work live coverage for the event 12:00 UTC DGMET issues the first around the clock :meteorologist, bulletin and the system is engineers and media workers upgraded to tropical storm

Mekunu Timeline

Mekunu Timeline INTENSIFIYINY 10 hours before landfall CATEGORY-2  DGMET/Warning NO.5/ 25 May, 0800UTC  Wind speed : 85-90 kt.  150 km away from Salalah

Mekunu Timeline 11:00 UTC Civil defense start evacuation of people living in • GFS and ECMWF forecast 08:00 UTC DGMET upgraded 11:00 UTC DGMET issues Alhaliniat island tropical storm will develop the system to Category-2 ,150 the first weather report and and move towards Oman km away from Salalah upgrades the system to a 12:00 UTC DGMET raises the • Duty forecasters started 20:00 UTC DGMET declares tropical depression classification to a category-1 to call for weather briefing Mekunu landfall as a category-1 tropical cyclone 24 22 May 8 May 23 21 25 May May May May 06:00 UTC DGMET upgrades the • Revising NEWC unified operating system to deep depression 11:00 UTC Civil defense start manual 07:00 UTC weather briefing for • evacuation of people living in Checking DGMET observing and NCCD members low lying areas forecasting systems 07:00 UTC NCCD declares a state • Preparing the work environment for 11:00 UTC TV launches 24 hour of emergency a large number of people to work live coverage for the event 12:00 UTC DGMET issues the first around the clock :meteorologist, bulletin and the system is engineers and media workers upgraded to tropical storm

Mekunu Timeline Landfall Southwest of Salalah DGMET/Warning NO.7/ 25 May, 2000 UTC   45 km southwest Salalah  Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Sustained 10-minutes wind 70 to 80 kt  Second strongest cyclone made landfall over Oman

Mekunu Timeline DISSIPATION  DGMET/Warning 9/ 26 May, 0800 UTC  Downgraded Mekunu to Deep Depression  DGMET/ Ending Statement/ 26May/1800UTC