FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Risk Management - Canada Slobodan P. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Risk Management - Canada Slobodan P. Simonovi d Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering The University of Western Ontario London, Canada

2| FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Conclusions • Risk management as adaptation to climate change • Use of systems approach • Flood risk management as a social system • Systems tools • Probabilistic approach (Monte Carlo simulation, Evolutionary optimization, Probabilistic MO goal programming) • Fuzzy set approach (Fuzzy rule-based simulation, Fuzzy linear programming, Fuzzy Compromise MO programming)

3| FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Outline  Introduction  Floods in Canada  Global change  Climate change  Floods in a changing climate  Risk management as adaptation  Systems approach  Important messages  Public safety  ‘Believe’ in climate change  General trends  Urban flooding  Flood insurance

4| INTRODUCTION Floods in Canada 1900-2005 Ontario Quebec British Columbia Alberta

5| INTRODUCTION Floods in Canada 1900-2005

6| CALGARY June 2013  Bow River  Peak flow 2,400 m 3 /sec  8 x the regular flow  3 x 2005 flood  Elbow River  Peak flow 1,240 m 3 /sec  12 x the regular flow  3 x 2005 flood  Outflow below Glenmore dam  700 m 3 /sec  7 x the normal  2.5 x 2005 flood  26 communities evacuated  100,000 people affected  20 bridges closed  34,000 people without power

7| CALGARY June 2013

8| TORONTO July 2013  Rain storm  126 mm in two hours (74.4 mm July average)  At least 300,000 people affected  1,400 train passengers stranded for hours  More than 300,000 people without power  Major traffic arteries flooded  Insured damage $850 M  2005 storm $671 M  2009 storm $228 M

9| TORONTO July 2013

10| INTRODUCTION Global change  Global change (natural and human-induced)  Alterations in climate  Changes in land productivity  Changes in oceans or other water resources  Changes in atmospheric chemistry  Changes in ecological systems  Understanding and predicting the causes, and impacts of, and potential responses to:  Long term climate change and greenhouse warming  Changes in atmospheric radiation  Natural climate fluctuations over seasonal and inter-annual time periods  They are all directly related to flooding

11| INTRODUCTION Climate change  Climate change  Changes in frequency and or intensity of extreme weather and climate events  Sea level rise  IPCC – many changes in extremes had been observed since 1970s as part of the warming of climate system  More frequent hot days, hot nights and heat waves  More frequent heavy precipitation events  More intense and longer droughts over wider areas  Increase in intense tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic  Sea level rise  Feedbacks

12| INTRODUCTION Climate change  Intensification of the hydrologic cycle  Further increases in precipitation extremes  Increases in heavy precipitation in wet areas  Increases in drought in dry areas  No precise predictions  Current studies suggest that heavy precipitation rates may increase by 5 – 10% per o C of warming Toronto 2005 - $671 M Toronto 2013 - $850 M

13| FLOOD RISK Management – Systems view  The system in focus is a social system of:  Individuals  Organizations  Societies and  Environment.  Flows connecting the subsystems:  Resource, and  Information.  Information is used to determine resource use by information subsystems. resources  Values provide meaning to information flows.

14| FLOOD RISK Risk assessment and communication

15| FLOOD RISK Municipal Risk Assessment Tool - IBC

16| FLOOD RISK Risk management – systems approach • Systems tools • Probabilistic approach (Monte Carlo simulation, Evolutionary optimization, Probabilistic MO goal programming) • Fuzzy set approach (Fuzzy rule-based simulation, Fuzzy linear programming, Fuzzy Compromise MO programming)

17| FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Important messages  Public safety  …”The rising cost of natural disasters and the financial burden on Ottawa is the country’s biggest public safety risk ” … Public Safety Canada, 2013‐14, Report on Plans and Priorities

18| FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Important messages  ‘Believe’ in climate change  …“It’s striking that anyone frames the question in terms of ‘belief,’ saying like, ‘I don’t believe in climate change.’ I don’t think this ought to be treated as a religious question. I think it’s better seen as a classic managerial question about decision- making under uncertainty”… John D. Black Professor, Harvard Business School

19| FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Important messages  General trends  More frequent and intense disasters Upper Thames River basin

20| FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Important messages  Urban flooding  An estimate $1.2 B annually ICLR unpublished data

21| FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Important messages  Flood insurance  …Flood insurance in Canada should cover all causes of flooding…  …Flood insurance must not incentivize building in flood prone areas and encourage risky behavior…  … Flood insurance will require a partnership between the insurance industry, governments and private homeowners... Swiss RE and ICLR, 2010

22| RESOURCES www.slobodansimonovic.com Research  Research projects FIDS  Research